As of Saturday evening, this is where the electoral map is at if the election were held today.
It looks like Trump is going to win Iowa and Ohio but I think the Hilz will win North Carolina and Florida.
This is a lot closer than Dems would like at this point. Nate Silver has Hillary Clinton at a 2 in 3 chance to win with Trump at a 1 in 3. It's going to depend on turnout and early voting has shown that Clinton has the advantage here.
I'll put up my last map on Monday night.
Showing posts with label 2016 Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 Election. Show all posts
Saturday, November 05, 2016
Click the map to create your own at 
Tuesday, November 01, 2016
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Chill Out, Dudes
As the political world whips itself into a tizzy about the letter that James Comey sent to Congress yesterday, I find myself very unmoved by all of this. I can see why Democrats are pissed off but what else was Comey supposed to do? Sit on it until after the election? As I have said all along, James Comey is straight shooter. Republicans are pretty hilarious, though. Now, I guess, Comey is great. Poopy head before, but now awesome!!
Here are the facts based on the letter and what we know as of today. The emails did not come from the Clinton server. They were on a laptop owned by Huma Abedin and used by Anthony Weiner for his weener related activities. The emails did not come from Hillary Clinton. They are related to the still closed investigation. There are only three emails being checked as having classified information. And, most important, the Clinton campaign is already calling for transparency.
We won't get it, of course, because the investigation is ongoing. Many in the political world are saying this will make the race close and it certainly might. I'm going to hold out until next Friday before making any judgments in terms of the polls. Let's remember that a significant number of people in swing states have already voted and Hillary has the favor in this department. I also think that we may have yet another Trump bombshell before election day, whether by his own doing or externally.
Ultimately, though, I don't think it will matter in terms of the election. There are very few undecideds out there. Voters know these candidates and this latest information isn't going to change anyone's mind. Democrats need to chill the fuck out and get the vote out rather than bitch about James Comey. I also don't think it will matter in terms of Hillary Clinton's ability to govern save some earth shattering information in the three emails (which I highly doubt). The first woman being elected president as well as all of the challenges she faces will overshadow the continuing email nonsense.
Here are the facts based on the letter and what we know as of today. The emails did not come from the Clinton server. They were on a laptop owned by Huma Abedin and used by Anthony Weiner for his weener related activities. The emails did not come from Hillary Clinton. They are related to the still closed investigation. There are only three emails being checked as having classified information. And, most important, the Clinton campaign is already calling for transparency.
We won't get it, of course, because the investigation is ongoing. Many in the political world are saying this will make the race close and it certainly might. I'm going to hold out until next Friday before making any judgments in terms of the polls. Let's remember that a significant number of people in swing states have already voted and Hillary has the favor in this department. I also think that we may have yet another Trump bombshell before election day, whether by his own doing or externally.
Ultimately, though, I don't think it will matter in terms of the election. There are very few undecideds out there. Voters know these candidates and this latest information isn't going to change anyone's mind. Democrats need to chill the fuck out and get the vote out rather than bitch about James Comey. I also don't think it will matter in terms of Hillary Clinton's ability to govern save some earth shattering information in the three emails (which I highly doubt). The first woman being elected president as well as all of the challenges she faces will overshadow the continuing email nonsense.
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
The Trump Effect
Sadly, I've encountered far too much of this in the past year and a half. Thanks, conservatives, for bringing your bile and mouth foaming out from a blog comments section into the schools that you say are already broken. What a bunch of fucking assholes.
Monday, October 24, 2016
Son of Skewed Polls
As yet another severe case of cognitive dissonance descends upon conservatives across our nation, so does the growing cries of skewed polls. Remember how well that worked out in 2012? The polls were accurate in predicting the election.
Nate Silver put up a piece a few weeks ago that should have put all of this to rest. But it didn't. Take a look at this nonsense. Aside from the fact the Silver (and the reality of 2012 outcome) have already pwned this shit, Durden misses a very key point. Polls showing a big lead for Democrats can actually be detrimental to voter turnout. People will see how high up she is and maybe just stay home if their XBox or latest binged watched show seems more alluring.
Perhaps the skewed polls mouth foamers should spend more energy on nominating a conservative candidate who is more appealing to voters. It can't possibly be that voters don't like what we are selling. Or that it doesn't function in reality!!
Nate Silver put up a piece a few weeks ago that should have put all of this to rest. But it didn't. Take a look at this nonsense. Aside from the fact the Silver (and the reality of 2012 outcome) have already pwned this shit, Durden misses a very key point. Polls showing a big lead for Democrats can actually be detrimental to voter turnout. People will see how high up she is and maybe just stay home if their XBox or latest binged watched show seems more alluring.
Perhaps the skewed polls mouth foamers should spend more energy on nominating a conservative candidate who is more appealing to voters. It can't possibly be that voters don't like what we are selling. Or that it doesn't function in reality!!
Friday, October 21, 2016
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Third Debate Post Mortem
While the rest of the media falls into yet another Trump Trap (OMG!! He's not going to accept the results of the election), I'd like to focus on a few other items from last night.
Donald Trump said "We're not making things anymore, relatively speaking." Well, the relativity dial must be broken because US factory production has more than doubled since 1979. The problem is that computerization has taken the place of the human worker. That's simply the free market doing its thing and if you are one of these workers, time to get a college degree or be retrained in another line of work.
Hillary Clinton would add more than a penny to the national debt...about $200 billion dollars over 10 years. That's what independent analysts have said of her economic plan. Donald Trump's plan would about $5.3 trillion dollars to the debt with all of his tax cuts.
I could give two shits that Hillary Clinton wants an open, global market, for energy or any other economic sector. Free trade prevents wars. Period. If we go back to protectionism or mercantilism, we raise the risk of blood conflicts again as we saw in World War I and World War II.
Donald Trump said "We're not making things anymore, relatively speaking." Well, the relativity dial must be broken because US factory production has more than doubled since 1979. The problem is that computerization has taken the place of the human worker. That's simply the free market doing its thing and if you are one of these workers, time to get a college degree or be retrained in another line of work.
Hillary Clinton would add more than a penny to the national debt...about $200 billion dollars over 10 years. That's what independent analysts have said of her economic plan. Donald Trump's plan would about $5.3 trillion dollars to the debt with all of his tax cuts.
I could give two shits that Hillary Clinton wants an open, global market, for energy or any other economic sector. Free trade prevents wars. Period. If we go back to protectionism or mercantilism, we raise the risk of blood conflicts again as we saw in World War I and World War II.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
The Latest 2016 Election Map
Here's my latest 2016 Election Map.
As we can all see, Hillary Clinton is poised for a landslide. Most of the major polling outfits and predictors are seeing a flip to a Democratically controlled Senate. And now it looks like House is in play with Republicans scrambling to retain their majority.
One thing to note about this map is the grey shade of Utah. I don't Hillary will win Utah but I do think that the presence of popular son, Evan McMullin, on the ballot will take away votes for Trump. They could end up tied or McMullin could just win it.
Donald Trump has been in a tailspin since the first debate. He's made it much worse with this complete and utter lovemaking to right wing bloggers in the last week. Arizona, Alaska, Georgia and Missouri are now in play. I actually think that Arizona will go for Hillary. The rest, we'll see with some more polls. Even Texas is getting tight now.
As I have said many times, she needs a landslide in order to govern effectively. On the day of the last debate, it appears that she has one in the making.
As we can all see, Hillary Clinton is poised for a landslide. Most of the major polling outfits and predictors are seeing a flip to a Democratically controlled Senate. And now it looks like House is in play with Republicans scrambling to retain their majority.
One thing to note about this map is the grey shade of Utah. I don't Hillary will win Utah but I do think that the presence of popular son, Evan McMullin, on the ballot will take away votes for Trump. They could end up tied or McMullin could just win it.
Donald Trump has been in a tailspin since the first debate. He's made it much worse with this complete and utter lovemaking to right wing bloggers in the last week. Arizona, Alaska, Georgia and Missouri are now in play. I actually think that Arizona will go for Hillary. The rest, we'll see with some more polls. Even Texas is getting tight now.
As I have said many times, she needs a landslide in order to govern effectively. On the day of the last debate, it appears that she has one in the making.
Monday, October 17, 2016
Sunday, October 16, 2016
Saturday, October 15, 2016
What would it take for Trump to lose your vote?
At this point, it's safe to say these are same sorts of people that drove Germany to where it was in the 1930s...
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Vote November 28th!
Donald Trump tells supporters to vote on November 28
I guess is what happens when the shackles come off...:)
I guess is what happens when the shackles come off...:)
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Do Democrats and other Hillary supporters have the fear of God in them?
This recent piece from Reuters has me more worried than anything else has in this election. With Hillary up anywhere from 7-11 points nationally and well ahead in several swing states, complacency could creep in with voters thinking that she wins so they don't have to vote.
If I were a Democratic leader, I'd shift my strategy to focus on the down ballot elections. Let the Democratic base know we want a strong majority in the Senate and, with Trump at the top of the ticket, we now have a shot at the House. Paul Ryan certainly knows this.
And if I were Hillary Clinton, I'd start talking more about her positive message for the future and how that will be in jeopardy if voters don't turn out.
If I were a Democratic leader, I'd shift my strategy to focus on the down ballot elections. Let the Democratic base know we want a strong majority in the Senate and, with Trump at the top of the ticket, we now have a shot at the House. Paul Ryan certainly knows this.
And if I were Hillary Clinton, I'd start talking more about her positive message for the future and how that will be in jeopardy if voters don't turn out.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Second Debate A Go Go
Last night's debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump looked much like the first debate. Media pundits have been saying that Trump "won" it merely because he stopped the intense bleeding from the previous 24 hours. Polls say otherwise. A CNN poll taken last night showed 57% percent of viewers say Hillary Clinton won with Donald Trump getting 34%. A YouGov poll had Hillary Clinton winning the debate against Donald Trump by 47% to 42%.
Many pundits on Morning Joe this AM felt like Hillary didn't deliver a knockout punch. I'm not sure what that would have been given Trump's weekend which saw GOP Senators and House members fleeing from him in droves. Paul Ryan has effectively given up and will now focus on Congress. Did she really need to do anything? His pre-game shit show of trotting out former Bill Clinton accusers was par for the course. "You did it too!!" was classic right wing blog commenter redirect heavily rooted in emotional immaturity.
Hillary spend most of the night pointing out specifics on policy points while Trump would throw out one thing and then repeat it over and over as an answer. What is he actually going to do as president, other than act like an 8 year old having a temper tantrum? The one thing he was very successful at last night was speaking directly to his supporters who all suffer from CDS (Clinton Derangement Syndrome) and live the bubble of the Bubble of Self Referential Confirmation. They aren't enough to win an election.
The latest polls-plus has been drifting Hillary's way since the last debate and I expect to expand even more in her favor in the coming days. She's at 260 according the RCP map and I can see her expanding into Arizona and maybe even Georgia with the weekend of the sex tape. And what if there are more tapes that come out about Trump? We are officially back to the possibility of a landslide for Hillary Clinton.
Many pundits on Morning Joe this AM felt like Hillary didn't deliver a knockout punch. I'm not sure what that would have been given Trump's weekend which saw GOP Senators and House members fleeing from him in droves. Paul Ryan has effectively given up and will now focus on Congress. Did she really need to do anything? His pre-game shit show of trotting out former Bill Clinton accusers was par for the course. "You did it too!!" was classic right wing blog commenter redirect heavily rooted in emotional immaturity.
Hillary spend most of the night pointing out specifics on policy points while Trump would throw out one thing and then repeat it over and over as an answer. What is he actually going to do as president, other than act like an 8 year old having a temper tantrum? The one thing he was very successful at last night was speaking directly to his supporters who all suffer from CDS (Clinton Derangement Syndrome) and live the bubble of the Bubble of Self Referential Confirmation. They aren't enough to win an election.
The latest polls-plus has been drifting Hillary's way since the last debate and I expect to expand even more in her favor in the coming days. She's at 260 according the RCP map and I can see her expanding into Arizona and maybe even Georgia with the weekend of the sex tape. And what if there are more tapes that come out about Trump? We are officially back to the possibility of a landslide for Hillary Clinton.
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