Chill Out, Dudes

As the political world whips itself into a tizzy about the letter that James Comey sent to Congress yesterday, I find myself very unmoved by all of this. I can see why Democrats are pissed off but what else was Comey supposed to do? Sit on it until after the election? As I have said all along, James Comey is straight shooter. Republicans are pretty hilarious, though. Now, I guess, Comey is great. Poopy head before, but now awesome!!

Here are the facts based on the letter and what we know as of today. The emails did not come from the Clinton server. They were on a laptop owned by Huma Abedin and used by Anthony Weiner for his weener related activities. The emails did not come from Hillary Clinton. They are related to the still closed investigation. There are only three emails being checked as having classified information. And, most important, the Clinton campaign is already calling for transparency.

We won't get it, of course, because the investigation is ongoing. Many in the political world are saying this will make the race close and it certainly might. I'm going to hold out until next Friday before making any judgments in terms of the polls. Let's remember that a significant number of people in swing states have already voted and Hillary has the favor in this department. I also think that we may have yet another Trump bombshell before election day, whether by his own doing or externally.

Ultimately, though, I don't think it will matter in terms of the election. There are very few undecideds out there. Voters know these candidates and this latest information isn't going to change anyone's mind. Democrats need to chill the fuck out and get the vote out rather than bitch about James Comey. I also don't think it will matter in terms of Hillary Clinton's ability to govern save some earth shattering information in the three emails (which I highly doubt). The first woman being elected president as well as all of the challenges she faces will overshadow the continuing email nonsense.

Could Trump blow it in Texas?

Maybe. I'm inclined to say no but the polls are pretty close.

The Trump Effect

Sadly, I've encountered far too much of this in the past year and a half. Thanks, conservatives, for bringing your bile and mouth foaming out from a blog comments section into the schools that you say are already broken. What a bunch of fucking assholes.

Son of Skewed Polls

As yet another severe case of cognitive dissonance descends upon conservatives across our nation, so does the growing cries of skewed polls. Remember how well that worked out in 2012? The polls were accurate in predicting the election.

Nate Silver put up a piece a few weeks ago that should have put all of this to rest. But it didn't. Take a look at this nonsense. Aside from the fact the Silver (and the reality of 2012 outcome) have already pwned this shit, Durden misses a very key point. Polls showing a big lead for Democrats can actually be detrimental to voter turnout. People will see how high up she is and maybe just stay home if their XBox or latest binged watched show seems more alluring.

Perhaps the skewed polls mouth foamers should spend more energy on nominating a conservative candidate who is more appealing to voters. It can't possibly be that voters don't like what we are selling. Or that it doesn't function in reality!!

The Rigging Process

Third Debate Post Mortem

While the rest of the media falls into yet another Trump Trap (OMG!! He's not going to accept the results of the election), I'd like to focus on a few other items from last night.

Donald Trump said "We're not making things anymore, relatively speaking." Well, the relativity dial must be broken because US factory production has more than doubled since 1979. The problem is that computerization has taken the place of the human worker. That's simply the free market doing its thing and if you are one of these workers, time to get a college degree or be retrained in another line of work.

Hillary Clinton would add more than a penny to the national debt...about $200 billion dollars over 10 years. That's what independent analysts have said of her economic plan. Donald Trump's plan would about $5.3 trillion dollars to the debt with all of his tax cuts.

I could give two shits that Hillary Clinton wants an open, global market, for energy or any other economic sector. Free trade prevents wars. Period. If we go back to protectionism or mercantilism, we raise the risk of blood conflicts again as we saw in World War I and World War II.

The Latest 2016 Election Map

Here's my latest 2016 Election Map.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

As we can all see, Hillary Clinton is poised for a landslide. Most of the major polling outfits and predictors are seeing a flip to a Democratically controlled Senate. And now it looks like House is in play with Republicans scrambling to retain their majority.

One thing to note about this map is the grey shade of Utah. I don't Hillary will win Utah but I do think that the presence of popular son, Evan McMullin, on the ballot will take away votes for Trump. They could end up tied or McMullin could just win it.

Donald Trump has been in a tailspin since the first debate. He's made it much worse with this complete and utter lovemaking to right wing bloggers in the last week. Arizona, Alaska, Georgia and Missouri are now in play. I actually think that Arizona will go for Hillary. The rest, we'll see with some more polls. Even Texas is getting tight now.

As I have said many times, she needs a landslide in order to govern effectively. On the day of the last debate, it appears that she has one in the making.

Dedicated To Right Wing Bloggers and Commenters Everywhere

The Undecided Voter

What would it take for Trump to lose your vote?

At this point, it's safe to say these are same sorts of people that drove Germany to where it was in the 1930s...

Other Men Have Said Worse

Locker Room Talk

Don't Hurt Their Feelings

In Spanish!

Vote November 28th!

Donald Trump tells supporters to vote on November 28

I guess is what happens when the shackles come off...:)

Do Democrats and other Hillary supporters have the fear of God in them?

This recent piece from Reuters has me more worried than anything else has in this election. With Hillary up anywhere from 7-11 points nationally and well ahead in several swing states, complacency could creep in with voters thinking that she wins so they don't have to vote.

If I were a Democratic leader, I'd shift my strategy to focus on the down ballot elections. Let the Democratic base know we want a strong majority in the Senate and, with Trump at the top of the ticket, we now have a shot at the House. Paul Ryan certainly knows this.

And if I were Hillary Clinton, I'd start talking more about her positive message for the future and how that will be in jeopardy if voters don't turn out.

Second Debate A Go Go

Last night's debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump looked much like the first debate. Media pundits have been saying that Trump "won" it merely because he stopped the intense bleeding from the previous 24 hours. Polls say otherwise. A CNN poll taken last night showed 57% percent of viewers say Hillary Clinton won with Donald Trump getting 34%. A YouGov poll had Hillary Clinton winning the debate against Donald Trump by 47% to 42%.

Many pundits on Morning Joe this AM felt like Hillary didn't deliver a knockout punch. I'm not sure what that would have been given Trump's weekend which saw GOP Senators and House members fleeing from him in droves. Paul Ryan has effectively given up and will now focus on Congress. Did she really need to do anything? His pre-game shit show of trotting out former Bill Clinton accusers was par for the course. "You did it too!!" was classic right wing blog commenter redirect heavily rooted in emotional immaturity.

Hillary spend most of the night pointing out specifics on policy points while Trump would throw out one thing and then repeat it over and over as an answer. What is he actually going to do as president, other than act like an 8 year old having a temper tantrum? The one thing he was very successful at last night was speaking directly to his supporters who all suffer from CDS (Clinton Derangement Syndrome) and live the bubble of the Bubble of Self Referential Confirmation. They aren't enough to win an election.

The latest polls-plus has been drifting Hillary's way since the last debate and I expect to expand even more in her favor in the coming days. She's at 260 according the RCP map and I can see her expanding into Arizona and maybe even Georgia with the weekend of the sex tape. And what if there are more tapes that come out about Trump? We are officially back to the possibility of a landslide for Hillary Clinton.

Best Tweet From Last Night's Debate

 Follow

Moustafa Bayoumi @BayoumiMoustafa

I'm a Muslim, and I would like to report a crazy man threatening a woman on a stage in Missouri. #debate

8:38 PM - 9 Oct 2016

 
•  76,91276,912 Retweets
 
•  138,129138,129 likes

Boys Will Be Boys

Well, it looks like the Donald is in deep shit now! With the release of this video,


the GOP nominee's chances of becoming president have sunk to zero. Universal condemnations from fellow Republicans have rained down from everywhere over the last 24 hours. What amuses me about all of this is that they seem to be acting shocked. Is this really anything new from Trump? He's been like this all along and they have still supported him.

This video will probably be enough to turn Iowa back blue with all its evangelical voters. Arizona has been looking for an excuse to go blue as well lately. Given the likelihood that Trump won't drop out, a Hillary landslide, something that seemed implausible just a few weeks ago, now seems likely.

The best thing the GOP could do would be to dump Trump and have Pence be at the top of the ticket. Here's why that won't happen. I think that Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and other GOP leaders see an opportunity here to wrest control back from the short wave radio listener turned email forwarder turned blogger turned all social media believer crowd.

No doubt, the debate tomorrow night just got a whole lot more interesting. This is especially true given Trump's late night apology (see also: hostage) video in which he quickly shifted the blame to the Clinton...just like a good little conservative should:)

The Bubble of Self Referential Confirmation

I posted a question on Quora regarding the Trump supporters video I put up yesterday. There are really some great answers. The top one included this sentence.

Since they live in a bubble of self-referential confirmation, there can’t be substantial amounts of people who disagree.

A bubble of self referential confirmation...that pretty much explains every right wing blog which I have ever read. So, that's now going to become a tag for future posts regarding the right wing cocoon they have all ensconced themselves in.

The best answer to the question was this....

They seem to be the kind of people who are taught from a very early age not to trust authority figures. Of course, the funny thing is, it’s always authority figures that tell them this, but it they won’t see that disconnect or even think about the double standard. The intellectual, people with “book smarts” (“Ever met someone who was so smart they were stupid?” is a favorite tag line), are just as dangerous as “niggers and Jews”, even more so, because “they look like us”. Since they are so smart, they must be using them smarts to “get over on us”. Why do they believe that? Because it’s what they would do if they were smart!

I have had to do a little self analysis to understand this phenomenon. Back in the 7os, there was a rumor going around that Ray Kroc, head of McDonalds, tithed to the Church of Satan. Here is how I fell into the pit of repeating it:

It originated at church. I do not recall that it was started or spread by a pastor, but it was in the church environment that I heard it. I was a naive, devout 16–17 year old who thought that all the people who went to our church were just as devout and would never lie about something that important…or slanderous. If “so-and-so” said it, it must be true. This was pre-Internet, so there was no way to Google it and very hard to squelch such things.

I also found that when I repeated it to like-minded people, their response was almost universally also acceptance, wide-eyed, “You don’t say!” kind of acceptance. WOW! This FELT GOOD! I experienced a frisson of superiority and authority that I had never felt before. I KNEW a secret, and by repeating it, I was elevated through the ranks to the dizzying heights of “the Aware”. It’s an incredible ego boost. Here we were, ready and prepared to boycott Mickey Dees, and I was in the vanguard, leading the way…with the pitchforks and torches.

Word finally reached the office of the man himself, Ray Kroc, and I just so happened to read the paper containing his response. It was pitiful; the gist of it was, “Look, I don’t know where or how this rumor got started, but it’s not true! I’m a Presbyterian for cryin’ out loud!” (may have been Catholic or Episcopal or somesuch). I don’t wish to pat myself on the back, especially after admitting to be one of the purveyors of the vicious rumor, but I differ from the Trump-type conspiracy theorist in my ultimate response. I felt sick. I had slandered a perfectly innocent man, and for what? Christian virtue? An ego boost? A game? Pure gossip, which is wrong even if true if the intent is to hurt (unless it is public knowledge).

I wish someone had had the courage to ask a simple question from the beginning: “How do you know this is true? Are you really willing to potentially damage a person’s reputation based upon such an unfounded accusation?” I might not have taken part, especially since I was young and teachable, in spreading the rumor. As it was, I learned my lesson and learned it well. NO, I am not willing to risk ruining a person’s reputation with unfounded and scurrilous rumors. I refuse to “follow the crowd in doing evil” (“Do not spread false reports. Do not help a guilty person by being a malicious witness. Do not follow the crowd in doing wrong. When you give testimony in a lawsuit, do not pervert justice by siding with the crowd, and do not show favoritism to a poor person in a lawsuit.” Exodus 23:12) If anyone wants me to believe something, they damn well better have evidence to back it up.

Amazing...if only more people inside the bubble of self referential confirmation had such a high level of reflective ability...

The problem with authority thing is also important to note. It's like they never got over...BEING AN ADOLESCENT.