First up, we have the Cook Political Report which puts 214 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 40 seats are in the Toss Up column. No doubt, things are going to shift between now and the fall but I don't really see how the GOP is going to win 39 of 40 seats if we are operating in Cook's framework. This is especially true considering the fact that the Democrats have more money right now than the GOP.
The New York Times has a more realistic (and extremely cool!) map which I think illustrates the fluidity of the situation more accurately. They have 168-Solid Dem, 55-Leaning Dem, 31-Tossup, 18-Leaning GOP, and 163-Solid GOP. That basically puts 104 seats into play. The question is, if you are the GOP, where do you put your money? You would need to get all 18 of the leaning GOP (likely) which will put you at 181. Then you would need all 31 of the Tossups (doable) which would put you at 212. Now you need 6 of the leaning Dem (somewhat tough). Are these final 6 where you really spend your money? Again, I don't see an ass kicking here...just a possible eeking out of a victory or falling short. Of course, this could change but after looking at these numbers, I am revising my prediction for the House to 25 flips...which would put us at 230-Dem and 202-GOP.
As John Boehner said at a recent Monitor lunch, it will be an uphill climb. For once, I agree with him. When you look at the numbers this way, I guess I don't see the ass kicking.
Tomorrow: An early look at the Senate Races 2010.
