CNN has a great piece up on how exactly Doug Jones won the Alabama senate seat last night. Essentially, it's this: when Democrats turn out to vote, they win. It's just that simple.
Jones was a great candidate who ran as an unapologetic liberal. When the Dems don't half ass and moderate it, they can win...even in deep red Alabama. No doubt, Moore was a terrible candidate but that was only one of many factors. Democrats will now be fully energized and we can expect to see more quality candidates running even in districts where previous beliefs have said they would not win.
Like my co-blogger, I thought Moore would win merely on the abortion issue alone. I was quite happy last night to be wrong. It's safe to say now that there is a lot of energy on the ground now for Democrats given last night's results and the results last November in Virginia and New Jersey. If this carries into next year, Trump is fucked. One or both houses will be taken back and he will be impeached and thrown out of office (if it doesn't happen sooner).
Jones stands an excellent chance of holding on to his seat when it comes up again in 2020. Since the GOP seems to now be fully engaged in a civil war, who knows what kind of candidate they will put up? It will also be a presidential year so more Democrats will turn out.
Oh yeah, one more thing. The polls were accurate. Jones won within the margin of error.
Showing posts with label Roy Moore. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roy Moore. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Monday, December 11, 2017
Polls Are Usually Accurate
Conservatives hate polls. It's probably because they are fact based numbers and we all know that facts have a liberal bias. Conservatives don't want to face reality and want to play in the emotional end of the pool, chucking all logic right out the window.
Take the 2016 presidential election. Conservatives think that all the polls were wrong and Trump beat all those smug elites who talk about facts and stuff. The problem is that the polls were quite accurate. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by around 3%. Trump won all the states he was supposed to win by the margins that were detailed in the polls and he picked off three (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) that were within the margin of error. Sure, the projections were wrong but not the polls. The final projection by Nate Silver gave Trump a 30% chance of victory. That's just a little bit less than 1 in 3 which is how it all played out.
So, because I'm someone who looks at polls and recognizes their scientific accuracy, I say that Roy Moore is going to win the Alabama senate race tomorrow. He's been up in the last several polls of likely voters (the only type of poll that matters) and is in a state that just doesn't have enough Democrats. He's also running against an unapologetic Democrat who supports abortion rights and gun control. Moore is running in a special election which means that the turnout demographic is going to be older and whiter. That means more conservative.
As I have said for many years here at Zombie Politics, conservatives are very tribal and want to beat liberals. They don't care who wins, even it's a monster like Roy Moore. If a member of the Nazi party from the 1930s ran against Jones, conservatives would be goose stepping their way to vote for the guy.
Since it's clear that conservatives have lost all capacity for rational thought, all efforts should be focused on getting out more voters and burying these psychotics at the polls. The headline for Wednesday morning.
Republicans elect accused child molester.
Take the 2016 presidential election. Conservatives think that all the polls were wrong and Trump beat all those smug elites who talk about facts and stuff. The problem is that the polls were quite accurate. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by around 3%. Trump won all the states he was supposed to win by the margins that were detailed in the polls and he picked off three (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) that were within the margin of error. Sure, the projections were wrong but not the polls. The final projection by Nate Silver gave Trump a 30% chance of victory. That's just a little bit less than 1 in 3 which is how it all played out.
So, because I'm someone who looks at polls and recognizes their scientific accuracy, I say that Roy Moore is going to win the Alabama senate race tomorrow. He's been up in the last several polls of likely voters (the only type of poll that matters) and is in a state that just doesn't have enough Democrats. He's also running against an unapologetic Democrat who supports abortion rights and gun control. Moore is running in a special election which means that the turnout demographic is going to be older and whiter. That means more conservative.
As I have said for many years here at Zombie Politics, conservatives are very tribal and want to beat liberals. They don't care who wins, even it's a monster like Roy Moore. If a member of the Nazi party from the 1930s ran against Jones, conservatives would be goose stepping their way to vote for the guy.
Since it's clear that conservatives have lost all capacity for rational thought, all efforts should be focused on getting out more voters and burying these psychotics at the polls. The headline for Wednesday morning.
Republicans elect accused child molester.
Friday, December 08, 2017
Monday, November 27, 2017
What The Results of the Alabama Special Election Will Tell Us
The results of the Alabama special election are going to be the most definitive statement on the state of the GOP in 2017. I’m speaking more of the base here than of the national leaders who have largely rejected Moore.
If Moore loses, it will show that there are still plenty of decent people left in the GOP, especially in Alabama. It will means there is hope for conservatives in terms of being more reasoned voters.
If Moore wins, then it will fully illustrate what I have been saying for years: conservatives hate liberals with all of their hearts and souls and they are completely inconsolable. Further, Moore’s victory will show where the real problem lies in terms of partisan politics. It’s with the right, not the left. So, it will be end of the “both sides are bad” argument.
Moore’s victory will show that the conservatives would rather vote for an accused pedophile who was banned from a mall then vote for a liberal. They will show themselves to be so far gone in terms of emotions about liberals that it’s going to be impossible to bring them back.
They will then head into 2018 with a child molester in the Senate.
If Moore loses, it will show that there are still plenty of decent people left in the GOP, especially in Alabama. It will means there is hope for conservatives in terms of being more reasoned voters.
If Moore wins, then it will fully illustrate what I have been saying for years: conservatives hate liberals with all of their hearts and souls and they are completely inconsolable. Further, Moore’s victory will show where the real problem lies in terms of partisan politics. It’s with the right, not the left. So, it will be end of the “both sides are bad” argument.
Moore’s victory will show that the conservatives would rather vote for an accused pedophile who was banned from a mall then vote for a liberal. They will show themselves to be so far gone in terms of emotions about liberals that it’s going to be impossible to bring them back.
They will then head into 2018 with a child molester in the Senate.
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
President Supports Accused Pedophile
No, that's not an Onion headline. It's real. Yesterday, President Trump threw his support behind Roy Moore yesterday, noting that "we don't need a liberal person in there."
As I have noted many times over the years, conservatives are so filled with hatred and anger towards liberals that they would rather support someone like Moore over the clearly better man for the job. They do this because they are so tribal, so petty, so fucking adolescent that they can't seem to bring themselves to vote for a Democrat. This is why their party is nearly dead.
Even if Moore somehow manages to eke out a win (which is possible given the demographics of who votes in special elections), the GOP will be saddled with supporting an accused pedophile going into the 2018 elections. Moore would also likely be booted from the Senate straight away, setting off a deeper civil war within the GOP. Those suburban white women that Trump carried last year will be gone and it's likely that both the Senate and the House will flip.
There are some fairly strong indicators that women have mobilized effectively and turned out to the polls. If that happens in the suburban areas of Alabama, Moore is toast and the GOP will still be stuck with the pedophile label. That's really the doomsday scenario.
Because if Trump actually goes down there and campaigns for Moore and then he LOSES, it's going to make the Luther Strange tantrums look like brief weeping.
As I have noted many times over the years, conservatives are so filled with hatred and anger towards liberals that they would rather support someone like Moore over the clearly better man for the job. They do this because they are so tribal, so petty, so fucking adolescent that they can't seem to bring themselves to vote for a Democrat. This is why their party is nearly dead.
Even if Moore somehow manages to eke out a win (which is possible given the demographics of who votes in special elections), the GOP will be saddled with supporting an accused pedophile going into the 2018 elections. Moore would also likely be booted from the Senate straight away, setting off a deeper civil war within the GOP. Those suburban white women that Trump carried last year will be gone and it's likely that both the Senate and the House will flip.
There are some fairly strong indicators that women have mobilized effectively and turned out to the polls. If that happens in the suburban areas of Alabama, Moore is toast and the GOP will still be stuck with the pedophile label. That's really the doomsday scenario.
Because if Trump actually goes down there and campaigns for Moore and then he LOSES, it's going to make the Luther Strange tantrums look like brief weeping.
Thursday, November 09, 2017
Could Alabama Turn Blue On December 12?
Alabama is holding a special election on December 12 to fill the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions when he became Attorney General. The GOP candidate is Roy Moore. Moore was recently installed at the Bannon pick to fuck with the establishment in DC. Moore is classic wingnut who loves to brandish his gun at rallies.
Oh, and he's also a pedophile.
Doug Jones is the Democratic candidate running against Moore. Here is what he stands for straight from his home page.
If the Democrats manage to flip this seat, all bets are off next year. If they don't, the Republicans will have shown themselves to more morally bankrupt that I thought possible.
Ah well, better a pedophile than a libtard, eh?
Oh, and he's also a pedophile.
Doug Jones is the Democratic candidate running against Moore. Here is what he stands for straight from his home page.
- Everyone has the right to quality, affordable health care.
- We must restore Alabama’s trust for its elected leaders.
- I will defend a woman’s right to choose and stand with Planned Parenthood.
- All children deserve a first-class education regardless of where they live.
- College must be affordable without burdening a student with overwhelming debt.
- I believe in science and will work to slow or reverse the impact of climate change.
- It is past time we raise the minimum wage to a livable wage.
- Women must be paid an equal wage for equal work at all levels.
- Voter suppression is unAmerican – we must protect voting rights.
- Discrimination cannot be tolerated or protected. America is best when it builds on diversity and is welcoming of the contributions of all.
If the Democrats manage to flip this seat, all bets are off next year. If they don't, the Republicans will have shown themselves to more morally bankrupt that I thought possible.
Ah well, better a pedophile than a libtard, eh?
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