Take a look at these charts from NPR. They show the people that voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and then flipped to vote for Donald Trump in 2016. The contrast is staggering. How could this happen? At first glance, it appears confusing and beyond explanation. Obama and Trump are two vastly different people. I'd go as far to state that one is good and one is bad.
Yet they do have a common thread that they also share with Bush, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. The losers in past elections (Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, John McCain, John Kerry, Al Gore, Bob Dole and George HW Bush) also have something in common. It's pretty simple when you think about it. The winners all have a populist appeal and seem to care more about common folk. The losers come off as elitist and unsympathetic to your average Joe.
All either party has to do in each presidential election cycle is nominate someone that is populist and is down with regular people. That's it. It really has nothing to do with Ds or Rs.
Showing posts with label Election 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2012. Show all posts
Sunday, February 26, 2017
Thursday, January 03, 2013
Since Ike
President Barack Obama is the first president since Dwight David Eisenhower to win 51 percent of the popular vote...twice!
Final tally?
65.9 million votes -51.1% of the vote for the president
60.9 million votes-47.2% of the vote for Mitt Romney
The response from the Right?
He bribed them with gifts!
He stole votes!
The polls were skewed!
He's a socialist!
He's a gun grabber!
He wasn't born here!
He was trained in a madrassa!
(all of which really worked out well for them didn't it?)
Final tally?
65.9 million votes -51.1% of the vote for the president
60.9 million votes-47.2% of the vote for Mitt Romney
The response from the Right?
He bribed them with gifts!
He stole votes!
The polls were skewed!
He's a socialist!
He's a gun grabber!
He wasn't born here!
He was trained in a madrassa!
(all of which really worked out well for them didn't it?)
Saturday, December 08, 2012
Friday, December 07, 2012
Ah, It Was HIS Waterloo
Jim DeMint to resign to head Heritage Foundation
The most telling quote from the piece?
The mistake the GOP made over the past four years, DeMint told reporters, was focusing too much on what the party was against rather than putting forth “bold ideas to get people inspired and behind us.”
Right. I wonder if any of the commenters over at The Smallest Minority will take this quote to heart regarding yours truly:)
With this resignation, the age of the "Angry White Man" has now officially concluded.
The most telling quote from the piece?
The mistake the GOP made over the past four years, DeMint told reporters, was focusing too much on what the party was against rather than putting forth “bold ideas to get people inspired and behind us.”
Right. I wonder if any of the commenters over at The Smallest Minority will take this quote to heart regarding yours truly:)
With this resignation, the age of the "Angry White Man" has now officially concluded.
Monday, December 03, 2012
Heed His Warning
It's easy after the last election for Democrats to feel confident. The president only dropped two states from 2008. Gains were seen in both the House and Senate (netting 8 seats in the former and 2 in the latter). The GOP hasn't gotten above 300 electoral votes since 1988 with the Democrats winning 4 of the last 6 presidential elections.
And, as the absentee ballots are counted, we see that the president got 65.3 million votes so his lower totals than 2008 weren't as low as originally thought (Mitt Romney is now at 60.7 so he did get 1 million more votes than McCain in 2008).
But, as Rahm Emanuel notes in this piece, we can't rest on our laurels.
We cannot expect Republicans to cede the economic argument so readily, or to fall so far short on campaign mechanics, the next time around. So, instead of resting on false assurances of underlying demographic advantages, the Democratic Party must follow through on our No. 1 priority, which the president set when he took office and reemphasized throughout this campaign: It is time to come home and rebuild America.
Right. This is no time for end zone dances. We have to deliver. What's a key way we do that?
Honestly, it starts with education and that means high stakes testing for every subject across the board, especially social studies. Many on the Right take the view that Democrats coddle those in the education system. Clearly, they have not read the fact sheet on Race to the Top. If they did, they would see that the president and many of his supporters (including me) wholeheartedly support this endeavor.
If the students that are in school now receive a higher quality education, they are going to be a very strong backbone of this country in the next decade. Take some time to look through the fact sheet listed above and see how these changes have to made to our education system in order for our economy to improve.
For the Democrats, this should be one of the main policies to vigorously pursue in the president's second term. This is one of a few key policies that is going to help win election after election.
And, as the absentee ballots are counted, we see that the president got 65.3 million votes so his lower totals than 2008 weren't as low as originally thought (Mitt Romney is now at 60.7 so he did get 1 million more votes than McCain in 2008).
But, as Rahm Emanuel notes in this piece, we can't rest on our laurels.
We cannot expect Republicans to cede the economic argument so readily, or to fall so far short on campaign mechanics, the next time around. So, instead of resting on false assurances of underlying demographic advantages, the Democratic Party must follow through on our No. 1 priority, which the president set when he took office and reemphasized throughout this campaign: It is time to come home and rebuild America.
Right. This is no time for end zone dances. We have to deliver. What's a key way we do that?
If we want to build a future in which the middle class can succeed, we must continue the push for reform that the president began with Race to the Top, bringing responsibility and accountability to our teachers and principals.
Honestly, it starts with education and that means high stakes testing for every subject across the board, especially social studies. Many on the Right take the view that Democrats coddle those in the education system. Clearly, they have not read the fact sheet on Race to the Top. If they did, they would see that the president and many of his supporters (including me) wholeheartedly support this endeavor.
If the students that are in school now receive a higher quality education, they are going to be a very strong backbone of this country in the next decade. Take some time to look through the fact sheet listed above and see how these changes have to made to our education system in order for our economy to improve.
For the Democrats, this should be one of the main policies to vigorously pursue in the president's second term. This is one of a few key policies that is going to help win election after election.
Friday, November 23, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
A Bubble That Has Burst
From Andy, over at electoral-vote.com
When people look back on this election, they will note that this was the moment that the bubble burst. If you get your information from Drudge, Fox, other right wing sources and spend time frequenting places like Kevin Baker's site, The Smallest Minority, you likely think that Americans are stupid for voting for the president and the Democrats. Of course, this is not true. It's not really a question of intelligence. As I have said all along, it's a question of willful ignorance brought on by insulation. This election showed that they can't do that anymore. People saw that what they were saying wasn't real and what they were advocating was truly awful. Can you blame them with garbage like this?
What on earth is he talking about? A country that may be unrecognizable? What enemies are rooting for him? Good grief...
Their shock (and sadly with it, their behavior) is about to get worse. The economy is improving and things are getting better, despite the dire predictions of all of America becoming like Detroit. What will they do then? People will stop paying attention to them in droves and they will go back to being a small group of people playing make believe around the 21st century equivalent of a short wave radio: the internet.
Older, male, white voters are having a lot of trouble understanding the election results. They and everyone they knew just assumed that the country would never re-elect a tax-and-spend liberal. Fox News told them this was impossible. Now reality is beginning to kick in--things have changed and are not likely to go back to the way they used to be. They are also flummoxed by the voters accepting same-sex marriage and legalization of marijuana in some states. Many of them see the country as Mitt Romney does, with makers and takers and the takers are taking over.
This is a fundamentally different situation than in the past. Then, a loss was just a loss--maybe the other side had a better candidate or ran a better campaign. Even after George McGovern and Michael Dukakis' massive defeats, Democrats didn't think this was the end of the America that they had always known. It was simply a lost election and they could try again in 4 years. The difference now is probably that way back then, everyone watched one of the three television networks and read the same newspapers. Now it is possible to live entirely in a bubble of your own choosing and simply have no idea of what is really going on in the country.
Someone who watches only Fox News and listens to talk radio and reads redstate.com on the Internet is going to be completely detached from reality, so an election result like this comes completely out of the blue for them. For Democrats, this is not true. Someone who watches only MSNBC, reads the New York Times and follows Websites like Huffington Post, Talking Points Memo, and Daily Kos, knew that it would be a fairly close election but that Obama and the Democrats had a small, but consistent, lead. The electoral vote predictors at all those places as well as here were pretty close to the final result. The new reality is that when you hide in a virtual cave of your own making, emerging out into the sunshine can be frightening.
When people look back on this election, they will note that this was the moment that the bubble burst. If you get your information from Drudge, Fox, other right wing sources and spend time frequenting places like Kevin Baker's site, The Smallest Minority, you likely think that Americans are stupid for voting for the president and the Democrats. Of course, this is not true. It's not really a question of intelligence. As I have said all along, it's a question of willful ignorance brought on by insulation. This election showed that they can't do that anymore. People saw that what they were saying wasn't real and what they were advocating was truly awful. Can you blame them with garbage like this?
Barack Obama has repeatedly circumvented the laws, including the Constitution of the United States, in ways and on a scale that pushes this nation in the direction of arbitrary one-man rule.
Now that Obama will be in a position to appoint Supreme Court justices who can rubber stamp his evasions of the law and usurpations of power, this country may be unrecognizable in a few years as the America that once led the world in freedom, as well as in many other things.
This "transforming" project extends far beyond fundamental internal institutions, or even the polarization and corruption of the people themselves, with goodies handed out in exchange for their surrendering their birthright of freedom.
Have you noticed how many of our enemies in other countries have been rooting for Obama? You or your children may yet have reason to recall that as a bitter memory of a warning sign ignored on election day in 2012.
What on earth is he talking about? A country that may be unrecognizable? What enemies are rooting for him? Good grief...
Their shock (and sadly with it, their behavior) is about to get worse. The economy is improving and things are getting better, despite the dire predictions of all of America becoming like Detroit. What will they do then? People will stop paying attention to them in droves and they will go back to being a small group of people playing make believe around the 21st century equivalent of a short wave radio: the internet.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
A Sunday Dedication
Today I am thinking about Army Cpl. Andrew Wilfahrt who died on Feb. 27, 2011, in Kandahar, Afghanistan, when an improvised explosive device blew his 31-year-old body apart. Andrew was gay and DADT hadn't quite been repealed when he slipping the surly bonds of earth on that day. But it was soon after.
Andrew was from Minnesota and the election last Tuesday also saw a defeat the marriage amendment. I can't think of a better way to honor his memory than to have hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans stand up and say no to something that would have limited individual rights.
Rights that he died defending.
Though you have made me see troubles, many and bitter, you will restore my life again; from the depths of the earth you will again bring me up. You will increase my honor and comfort me once again. (Psalm 71:20-21)
Andrew was from Minnesota and the election last Tuesday also saw a defeat the marriage amendment. I can't think of a better way to honor his memory than to have hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans stand up and say no to something that would have limited individual rights.
Rights that he died defending.
Though you have made me see troubles, many and bitter, you will restore my life again; from the depths of the earth you will again bring me up. You will increase my honor and comfort me once again. (Psalm 71:20-21)
Thursday, November 08, 2012
What Needs To Done?
If there is one thing that has left a very bad taste in my mouth about the election this year, it's the low voter turnout. As of this post, we are over 10 million short of the last election. I realize that 2008 was an historic election but I feel an enormous amount of dismay at the fact that out of the 210 million or so people that are eligible to vote, only 120 million voted (130 in the last election).
Folks, this sucks. What needs to be done to get those extra 90 million people in the voting booth?
Folks, this sucks. What needs to be done to get those extra 90 million people in the voting booth?
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
The Day After
What a night.
To be honest, I was so overwhelmed by everything last evening that I just couldn't post anything. So, today, here are my thoughts.
The president's reelection is significant for several reasons. First, it essentially made Citizen's United irrelevant which is a good thing. Old, rich, white douches spent millions to get rid of him and it didn't work...which brings me to my second thing. Folks, the country has changed and the GOP better get with the program. They can start by chucking the American Taliban element of their party (which has now cost them the Senate...again!) and focus on the rising demographic of Latinos. The hard line on immigration won't cut it anymore and they are going to have to change. The Andy Griffith Show America (which never existed in the first place) is gone.
In fact, the hard line on many things are going to have to change...gay marriage (past in three states yesterday and a ban defeated in my home state), women's reproductive rights (no more old white men with two dollar haircuts talking about rape) and an acceptance that people do want some form of federal government. The most important thing of all they are going to have to realize is this country is diverse and, if they are going to survive as a party, they need to embrace this.
Mitt Romney lost because he was an Etch-A-Sketch candidate. He took these hard line positions, realized he would get walloped in the general if he didn't moderate and then proceeded to be on three sides of every policy point. I am very thankful we did not elect this man. He may have had principles at one time but not any longer. As Erick Erickson said, he would do or say anything to get elected.
Younger voters...the ones that supposedly weren't going to turn out...did so in greater numbers than in 2008 (by one percentage point). This brings up my message today to some of my posters and other friends: GET OUT OF THE FUCKING BUBBLE. Stop reading the Drudge report, watching Fox news, and frequenting right wing blogs. The things they say are happening simply don't exist in reality. No problem if you want to continue to play make believe but I would hope that this election has starkly illustrated that these folks are lying and the American people now know it.
This new certainty was a long haul. Most liberals and Democrats feel a profound sense of doubt and insecurity (preyed upon by the Right) after 2000 and 2004. Now that we will four Democratic won elections to the GOP's 2 in the last 20 years to the executive branch, that doubt BS is fucking over. The Democrats have built a powerful coalition that can continually get over 300 EVs with a good candidate. The GOP hasn't done that since 1988. Perhaps they need to finally realized that they can't be the party of old, white men any longer.
I was happy to see pot made legal in three states...fire up the bong!
Gay marriage was also made legal in three states (Maine, Maryland, and Washington). It's only a matter of time for the rest of the nation.
Looks like my predictions for the Senate were accurate. They haven't called it for Tester and Heitkamp yet but they are both ahead. 55-45, with the two I's caucusing with the Dems.
As I suspected in the House, the Dems will pick up a couple of seats but still stay under 200.
Elizabeth Warren takes back the Kennedy seat....hands down, one of the best moments of the night.
In my home state, Michele won again, just like I said she would. Oh well. It will be nice to have her around to say moonbat shit and win more elections for the Democrats. Both the gay marriage ban and the voter ID amendment were defeated. Better, the Democrats took back the State House and Senate and we have an all blue state for at least two years. This is another great example of how the Right fucks everything up in going to far over to their side of the field.
It looks like Tea Party favorites Joe Walsh and Allen West will be sent packing (the latter's race hasn't been called but Murphy is ahead). That, along with the loss of both of the Rape Boys (Todd Akin and Richard Murdock) begs the question: is the Tea Party dead? I think this election says that it is. They might still be able to win some House seats here and there but not the Senate nor the presidency. That's what happens when you are obsessed with ideological purity, see compromise as weakness, have a fundamental belief in scriptural literalism, deny science, are unmoved by facts, undeterred by new information, have a hostile fear of progress, demonize education, have a need to control women's bodies, have severe Xenophobia, have a tribal mentality, are intolerant of dissent, and have a pathological hatred of the US government.
You lose election after election.
So what will the president's second term look like? Well, if I were him, I'd play hardball. He was more weight in the Senate now and a few more seats in the House. I'd reach out to the moderate GOP folks in the House and get a grand bargain on our government's finances. Hopefully some of them have seen the writing the wall: moderate or else. I'd also look to move on immigration, climate change, and education. What's going to be fun about this second term is that now the president doesn't have to worry about reelection. He can get to work on those issues he really wanted to tackled from the first term but couldn't because of how long health care took.
We are going to get see what the president really wants now for the country, unfiltered and backed by political capital. I know this makes the Right shit themselves but when the economy starts to improve, they aren't going to be able to say much. Perhaps they'll admit they were wrong.
It sure would be nice.
To be honest, I was so overwhelmed by everything last evening that I just couldn't post anything. So, today, here are my thoughts.
The president's reelection is significant for several reasons. First, it essentially made Citizen's United irrelevant which is a good thing. Old, rich, white douches spent millions to get rid of him and it didn't work...which brings me to my second thing. Folks, the country has changed and the GOP better get with the program. They can start by chucking the American Taliban element of their party (which has now cost them the Senate...again!) and focus on the rising demographic of Latinos. The hard line on immigration won't cut it anymore and they are going to have to change. The Andy Griffith Show America (which never existed in the first place) is gone.
In fact, the hard line on many things are going to have to change...gay marriage (past in three states yesterday and a ban defeated in my home state), women's reproductive rights (no more old white men with two dollar haircuts talking about rape) and an acceptance that people do want some form of federal government. The most important thing of all they are going to have to realize is this country is diverse and, if they are going to survive as a party, they need to embrace this.
Mitt Romney lost because he was an Etch-A-Sketch candidate. He took these hard line positions, realized he would get walloped in the general if he didn't moderate and then proceeded to be on three sides of every policy point. I am very thankful we did not elect this man. He may have had principles at one time but not any longer. As Erick Erickson said, he would do or say anything to get elected.
Younger voters...the ones that supposedly weren't going to turn out...did so in greater numbers than in 2008 (by one percentage point). This brings up my message today to some of my posters and other friends: GET OUT OF THE FUCKING BUBBLE. Stop reading the Drudge report, watching Fox news, and frequenting right wing blogs. The things they say are happening simply don't exist in reality. No problem if you want to continue to play make believe but I would hope that this election has starkly illustrated that these folks are lying and the American people now know it.
This new certainty was a long haul. Most liberals and Democrats feel a profound sense of doubt and insecurity (preyed upon by the Right) after 2000 and 2004. Now that we will four Democratic won elections to the GOP's 2 in the last 20 years to the executive branch, that doubt BS is fucking over. The Democrats have built a powerful coalition that can continually get over 300 EVs with a good candidate. The GOP hasn't done that since 1988. Perhaps they need to finally realized that they can't be the party of old, white men any longer.
I was happy to see pot made legal in three states...fire up the bong!
Gay marriage was also made legal in three states (Maine, Maryland, and Washington). It's only a matter of time for the rest of the nation.
Looks like my predictions for the Senate were accurate. They haven't called it for Tester and Heitkamp yet but they are both ahead. 55-45, with the two I's caucusing with the Dems.
As I suspected in the House, the Dems will pick up a couple of seats but still stay under 200.
Elizabeth Warren takes back the Kennedy seat....hands down, one of the best moments of the night.
In my home state, Michele won again, just like I said she would. Oh well. It will be nice to have her around to say moonbat shit and win more elections for the Democrats. Both the gay marriage ban and the voter ID amendment were defeated. Better, the Democrats took back the State House and Senate and we have an all blue state for at least two years. This is another great example of how the Right fucks everything up in going to far over to their side of the field.
It looks like Tea Party favorites Joe Walsh and Allen West will be sent packing (the latter's race hasn't been called but Murphy is ahead). That, along with the loss of both of the Rape Boys (Todd Akin and Richard Murdock) begs the question: is the Tea Party dead? I think this election says that it is. They might still be able to win some House seats here and there but not the Senate nor the presidency. That's what happens when you are obsessed with ideological purity, see compromise as weakness, have a fundamental belief in scriptural literalism, deny science, are unmoved by facts, undeterred by new information, have a hostile fear of progress, demonize education, have a need to control women's bodies, have severe Xenophobia, have a tribal mentality, are intolerant of dissent, and have a pathological hatred of the US government.
You lose election after election.
So what will the president's second term look like? Well, if I were him, I'd play hardball. He was more weight in the Senate now and a few more seats in the House. I'd reach out to the moderate GOP folks in the House and get a grand bargain on our government's finances. Hopefully some of them have seen the writing the wall: moderate or else. I'd also look to move on immigration, climate change, and education. What's going to be fun about this second term is that now the president doesn't have to worry about reelection. He can get to work on those issues he really wanted to tackled from the first term but couldn't because of how long health care took.
We are going to get see what the president really wants now for the country, unfiltered and backed by political capital. I know this makes the Right shit themselves but when the economy starts to improve, they aren't going to be able to say much. Perhaps they'll admit they were wrong.
It sure would be nice.
Monday, November 05, 2012
2012 Election Predictions
Well, I suppose it's that time for me to make my final predictions for tomorrow. First up, the presidential election.
President Obama will win 303 electoral votes to Romney's 235 electoral votes. The states that Romney will take back from the Obama 2008 victory will be Indiana (obviously), North Carolina (very much more than likely) and Florida. With that last one, I'm going to have a caveat and that's this recent report from the Times.
The lawsuit was filed after a stream of complaints from voters who sometimes waited nearly seven hours to vote or who did not vote at all because they could not wait for so long to do so.
Seven hours? I thought turnout for the Obama side was going to be low. I can't quite bring myself to say that Florida will go for Obama, even though Nate Silver has it at 46% chance that we will win it, but the momentum there has shifted to the president over the last week and he might eke it out. With Silver showing the popular vote to be 49.9 Romney, Obama 46.9 anything is possible but I'm sticking with no Florida for the president. I just don't feel it.
The Senate will hold for the Democrats largely because of the Tea Party and their purity tests. It doesn't help that they seem to want to nominate old, white men with two dollar haircuts who like to talk about rape (and people wonder why we call them the American Taliban.) I think they Dems are actually going to gain two seats (on Obama's coattails in the deep blue states) and we will be at 55-45 (with Angus King caucusing with the Dems). Winners (from the Swing States): Tester, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heller, Fischer, Flake, Heitkamp, Warren, Murphy, Kaine, Baldwin and Brown. I'd say that's pretty great considering that they really had no chance earlier in the year. Carmona might have had a chance in Arizona but then he showed that he has the same attitude about women that Todd Akin and Richard Murock have.
The House will not be kind for the Democrats. Up until last week, I thought the would pick up around 12-15 seats. Now, I think it will be around 5. Guys like Joe Walsh in Illinois will go because Tammy Duckworth rocks the shizzle but many of the other candidates just don't have the power to upset guys like Steve King from Iowa. And, though I am loathe to admit it, Michele Bachmann will win her seat in MN-6 again. The media has said it's tight but it's not at all, folks. The people up there are hard right wing and will never vote for Democrat even if their lives depended on it (actually, they do, but we've been over this ground before:)) Final tally? 237 Rs, 198 Ds.
For my own home state, we have two ballot issues. The first is the Double Secret Anti-Fag Protection amendment that says that marriage should be only between one man and one woman. I think it will be defeated as I know many Republicans (including the ever venerable last in line) who will be voting NO. The second ballot issue is the Photo ID amendment and I think it will pass, although it will be struck down at the State Supreme Court as being in violation of the US Constitution.
As will likely be the case, feel free to ignore all of my accurate predictions and act like a 12 year old boy on the ones I get wrong:)
President Obama will win 303 electoral votes to Romney's 235 electoral votes. The states that Romney will take back from the Obama 2008 victory will be Indiana (obviously), North Carolina (very much more than likely) and Florida. With that last one, I'm going to have a caveat and that's this recent report from the Times.
The lawsuit was filed after a stream of complaints from voters who sometimes waited nearly seven hours to vote or who did not vote at all because they could not wait for so long to do so.
Seven hours? I thought turnout for the Obama side was going to be low. I can't quite bring myself to say that Florida will go for Obama, even though Nate Silver has it at 46% chance that we will win it, but the momentum there has shifted to the president over the last week and he might eke it out. With Silver showing the popular vote to be 49.9 Romney, Obama 46.9 anything is possible but I'm sticking with no Florida for the president. I just don't feel it.
The Senate will hold for the Democrats largely because of the Tea Party and their purity tests. It doesn't help that they seem to want to nominate old, white men with two dollar haircuts who like to talk about rape (and people wonder why we call them the American Taliban.) I think they Dems are actually going to gain two seats (on Obama's coattails in the deep blue states) and we will be at 55-45 (with Angus King caucusing with the Dems). Winners (from the Swing States): Tester, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heller, Fischer, Flake, Heitkamp, Warren, Murphy, Kaine, Baldwin and Brown. I'd say that's pretty great considering that they really had no chance earlier in the year. Carmona might have had a chance in Arizona but then he showed that he has the same attitude about women that Todd Akin and Richard Murock have.
The House will not be kind for the Democrats. Up until last week, I thought the would pick up around 12-15 seats. Now, I think it will be around 5. Guys like Joe Walsh in Illinois will go because Tammy Duckworth rocks the shizzle but many of the other candidates just don't have the power to upset guys like Steve King from Iowa. And, though I am loathe to admit it, Michele Bachmann will win her seat in MN-6 again. The media has said it's tight but it's not at all, folks. The people up there are hard right wing and will never vote for Democrat even if their lives depended on it (actually, they do, but we've been over this ground before:)) Final tally? 237 Rs, 198 Ds.
For my own home state, we have two ballot issues. The first is the Double Secret Anti-Fag Protection amendment that says that marriage should be only between one man and one woman. I think it will be defeated as I know many Republicans (including the ever venerable last in line) who will be voting NO. The second ballot issue is the Photo ID amendment and I think it will pass, although it will be struck down at the State Supreme Court as being in violation of the US Constitution.
As will likely be the case, feel free to ignore all of my accurate predictions and act like a 12 year old boy on the ones I get wrong:)
Now THAT is an endorsement!
God given right...no shit. That's EXACTLY why they hate the president as much as they do.
Ah, Now I Get It
At first I thought Mitt Romney's trip to Pennsylvania (billed as "expanding the map," according to his campaign) was a head fake to try to give off the perception of momentum. Now, I think that he knows that Ohio is unlikely and needs to make up those EVs another way. Obviously, Pennsylvania is a long shot for Romney but the last couple polls have been within the margin of error so perhaps he's hopeful that something can happen.
Remember, though, that a couple of polls don't tell the story. It's always the average of all of them.
Remember, though, that a couple of polls don't tell the story. It's always the average of all of them.
Sunday, November 04, 2012
Whither Erick Erickson
Erick Erickson is pretty much the polar opposite of myself but I couldn't agree more with him when he said, last year.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is a man devoid of any principles other than getting himself elected. As much as the American public does not like Barack Obama, they loath a man so fueled with ambition that he will say or do anything to get himself elected. Mitt Romney is that man.
I've been reading the 200 pages of single spaced opposition research from the John McCain campaign on Mitt Romney. There is no issue I can find on which Mitt Romney has not taken both sides. He is neither liberal nor conservative. He is simply unprincipled.
Wow. And people are voting for this guy? Their emotions about the president are obviously so irrational that an unprincipled man is preferred.
Interestingly, he wrote this yesterday...
When I wake up on Wednesday morning, I'm still going to have my wife. I'm still going to have my kids. I'm still going to have my family. And I'm still going to have my God. So will you. I'm not going to think the end of the world is upon us if my side loses.
Does he know something the rest of us don't? If he doesn't, Karl Rove surely does, as Andy Tannenbaum notes.
In a Washington Post interview, Republican strategist Karl Rove had his Mene mene tekel upharsin moment when he blamed Romney's loss on the storm, even before the results are known, when he said: "If you hadn't had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the [Mitt] Romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy." He seems to have forgotten that Romney has been saying all those things for 2 years. Surely 3 more days didn't matter. What he meant was the storm gave Obama a Commander-in-Chief test and he passed.
Personally, I think people should ignore all this and continue to act as if it's razor thin. It would be bad if people think the president is going to win and then stay home.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is a man devoid of any principles other than getting himself elected. As much as the American public does not like Barack Obama, they loath a man so fueled with ambition that he will say or do anything to get himself elected. Mitt Romney is that man.
I've been reading the 200 pages of single spaced opposition research from the John McCain campaign on Mitt Romney. There is no issue I can find on which Mitt Romney has not taken both sides. He is neither liberal nor conservative. He is simply unprincipled.
Wow. And people are voting for this guy? Their emotions about the president are obviously so irrational that an unprincipled man is preferred.
Interestingly, he wrote this yesterday...
When I wake up on Wednesday morning, I'm still going to have my wife. I'm still going to have my kids. I'm still going to have my family. And I'm still going to have my God. So will you. I'm not going to think the end of the world is upon us if my side loses.
Does he know something the rest of us don't? If he doesn't, Karl Rove surely does, as Andy Tannenbaum notes.
In a Washington Post interview, Republican strategist Karl Rove had his Mene mene tekel upharsin moment when he blamed Romney's loss on the storm, even before the results are known, when he said: "If you hadn't had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the [Mitt] Romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy." He seems to have forgotten that Romney has been saying all those things for 2 years. Surely 3 more days didn't matter. What he meant was the storm gave Obama a Commander-in-Chief test and he passed.
Personally, I think people should ignore all this and continue to act as if it's razor thin. It would be bad if people think the president is going to win and then stay home.
Now about that poll and the independents...
Any poll that show the president ahead in any of the swing states has to be wrong because the Democrats aren't going to turn out like they did in 2008 and Mitt has all the momentum. All the independents are flocking to Romney.
Oh, and there are more Republicans than Democrats so the polls are skewed.
That's the conventional wisdom coming from the Right going into the last two days before the election. The good news is that if they are wrong, they'll just stomp their feet, make something up, and act like adolescents. More good news: if they are right, every pollster is wrong, including NBC.
Let's take a look at that poll. First of all, it's not just NBC. The Wall Street Journal was also responsible for the poll and they aren't exactly a bastion of liberalism.The poll is of 971 likely voters more of whom identified as Democrats. This is why the poll is +9 identification in favor of the Democrats. What the Right fails to understand is that they aren't skewing the polls. This is how the people answered the question and, honestly, this is great example of how facts simply bounce off the bubble.
But Mark Murray, Senior Political Editor at NBC, decided to cut the Democratic sample in half just for shits and giggles. Guess what happened? Obama by three...which is the average of all the polls from Ohio and what I think will be right around the margin the president is going to win by on Tuesday. So, dudes on the Right, enough already.
Now as far as that independent claim goes...Newsmax-Zogby shows the president now up 2 points among independents, PPP shows the president up 49-44, ABC-WaPO and Politico show the two candidates tied. These numbers show a trend towards the president.
Overall, Rasmussen still has the race tied at 49-49. I consider that great news for the president.
Oh, and there are more Republicans than Democrats so the polls are skewed.
That's the conventional wisdom coming from the Right going into the last two days before the election. The good news is that if they are wrong, they'll just stomp their feet, make something up, and act like adolescents. More good news: if they are right, every pollster is wrong, including NBC.
Let's take a look at that poll. First of all, it's not just NBC. The Wall Street Journal was also responsible for the poll and they aren't exactly a bastion of liberalism.The poll is of 971 likely voters more of whom identified as Democrats. This is why the poll is +9 identification in favor of the Democrats. What the Right fails to understand is that they aren't skewing the polls. This is how the people answered the question and, honestly, this is great example of how facts simply bounce off the bubble.
But Mark Murray, Senior Political Editor at NBC, decided to cut the Democratic sample in half just for shits and giggles. Guess what happened? Obama by three...which is the average of all the polls from Ohio and what I think will be right around the margin the president is going to win by on Tuesday. So, dudes on the Right, enough already.
Now as far as that independent claim goes...Newsmax-Zogby shows the president now up 2 points among independents, PPP shows the president up 49-44, ABC-WaPO and Politico show the two candidates tied. These numbers show a trend towards the president.
Overall, Rasmussen still has the race tied at 49-49. I consider that great news for the president.
Saturday, November 03, 2012
Whither the Polls
It's interesting to hear conservatives whine about how the polls are all biased and figuring Republican turnout to be too low and, conversely, Democratic turnout to be too high. The Democrats are not enthusiastic, they say, and won't turn out like they did in 2008. One has to wonder if they are trying to prey upon Democratic nerves and psych them out...nah, can't be.
Of course, the other way to look at this is more positive. By continuing to say (as many in the media are) that voter turnout is going to be lower on the Democratic side, doesn't that motivate more people to vote? Even out of nerves? I think it will.
Personally, I'd much rather be Barack Obama right now, leading by an average of 2.9 percentage points in Ohio right now, than Mitt Romney and his supporters whining about polling bias. I am, however, willing to admit that there is a 16 percent chance that I am wrong about Ohio:)
Of course, the other way to look at this is more positive. By continuing to say (as many in the media are) that voter turnout is going to be lower on the Democratic side, doesn't that motivate more people to vote? Even out of nerves? I think it will.
Personally, I'd much rather be Barack Obama right now, leading by an average of 2.9 percentage points in Ohio right now, than Mitt Romney and his supporters whining about polling bias. I am, however, willing to admit that there is a 16 percent chance that I am wrong about Ohio:)
Either Way
Most of my regular readers know that I have been friends with the all too rare author on here, John Waxey. Many also know that Mr. Waxey is the owner of a manufacturing firm in Wisconsin that does between 20 and 30 million dollars a year in business. In a discussion regarding Tuesday's election, John said
"Well, either way I win so..."
When I questioned his perceived gusto for Mitt Romney, he chuckled.
"Obviously, I'd rather have the president win because that's better for everyone. But if Mitt happens to win, all of his policies will help rich people like me so my life is going to be better."
Yep.
"Well, either way I win so..."
When I questioned his perceived gusto for Mitt Romney, he chuckled.
"Obviously, I'd rather have the president win because that's better for everyone. But if Mitt happens to win, all of his policies will help rich people like me so my life is going to be better."
Yep.
Friday, November 02, 2012
Barack Obama, Job Creator
With the last jobs report released today, the evidence is quite clear: President Obama is a net job creator. From February 2009 through October 2012 4.62 million jobs were lost and 4.81 million jobs were gained, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's a net gain of 190,000 jobs.
Of course, that's assuming that all those job losses for the first few months were the president's fault. Obviously, they weren't but I'm including them here so folks don't go into anaphylactic shock about "Blaming Bush."
So, the president has clearly done a good job. He has led the country out of the red, jobs wise, and back into the black. Many are saying that it's not enough but considering our economy was in the worst contraction since the Great Depression, I'd say it's great. That took us over a decade to get out of and that was largely because World War II began and the War Department needed...well...everything. I'd say that it's going to take another 2 years or so to get us back to a normal job market...normal for the new global economy, that is:)
Of course, that's assuming that all those job losses for the first few months were the president's fault. Obviously, they weren't but I'm including them here so folks don't go into anaphylactic shock about "Blaming Bush."
So, the president has clearly done a good job. He has led the country out of the red, jobs wise, and back into the black. Many are saying that it's not enough but considering our economy was in the worst contraction since the Great Depression, I'd say it's great. That took us over a decade to get out of and that was largely because World War II began and the War Department needed...well...everything. I'd say that it's going to take another 2 years or so to get us back to a normal job market...normal for the new global economy, that is:)
Thursday, November 01, 2012
The State of the Race
The last couple of days have not been good for Mitt Romney. First we had the pants on fire car ad that has now been denounced by Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne. How anyone can think that this guy has a handle on business is beyond me. He looks like he knows what he is doing but then he says things are patently false.
Then Hurricane Sandy hit and Romney pretended to hand out canned goods, as Nikto noted yesterday. Worse, the Right looked like complete morons when the president demonstrated (yet again) that he is a capable leader in a crisis. Fictional Obama is just that.
And then there are all those new polls.
The president is now up by an average (according to the right leaning RCP) of over two points in Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada. The latter has been more or less ceded to the president by the Romney campaign. The president has made gains in Virginia, Florida and even North Carolina in the latest polls so that's where Romney has to go now if he wants to hold those states. For the most part, one can always tell where the polls really are by where the candidates go and Romney is in Virginia this morning.
If the president wins all the states that Democrats have won in the last five elections plus New Mexico (where he is way ahead now), Nevada, Iowa, and Ohio he has 277 electoral votes and he wins the election. All of the polls out of Ohio have the president ahead by 2-5 points except Rasmussen who doesn't poll cel phone users.
Nate Silver had an interesting piece up the other day about past elections and candidates that have been up (on average) by more than two percentage points. In short, they win. The only time that hasn't happened in the last 30 years is when George HW Bush beat Bill Clinton in 1992 in Texas. Even though the polls showed Clinton up by 3.5 points, Bush won. But we didn't a poll to tell us that Bush would win Texas.
Silver has another piece which shows all the state by state polls which all basically say the same thing: the president is going to win on Tuesday. What I found most interesting about this piece is the admission that if Silver and all the other pollsters are wrong, it's going to be a monumentally bizarre occurrence and they should all, perhaps, find a new line of work!
All these polls of likely voters are the basis for my prediction next week. The president will win 290 electoral votes and Mitt Romney will win 235 with Virginia being a giant WTF, although it has been trending the president's way in the last couple of days. Even Florida has been moving back towards the president and is essentially tied. I still think Romney will win North Carolina.
Five days until the election and things are looking great for the president!
Then Hurricane Sandy hit and Romney pretended to hand out canned goods, as Nikto noted yesterday. Worse, the Right looked like complete morons when the president demonstrated (yet again) that he is a capable leader in a crisis. Fictional Obama is just that.
And then there are all those new polls.
The president is now up by an average (according to the right leaning RCP) of over two points in Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada. The latter has been more or less ceded to the president by the Romney campaign. The president has made gains in Virginia, Florida and even North Carolina in the latest polls so that's where Romney has to go now if he wants to hold those states. For the most part, one can always tell where the polls really are by where the candidates go and Romney is in Virginia this morning.
If the president wins all the states that Democrats have won in the last five elections plus New Mexico (where he is way ahead now), Nevada, Iowa, and Ohio he has 277 electoral votes and he wins the election. All of the polls out of Ohio have the president ahead by 2-5 points except Rasmussen who doesn't poll cel phone users.
Nate Silver had an interesting piece up the other day about past elections and candidates that have been up (on average) by more than two percentage points. In short, they win. The only time that hasn't happened in the last 30 years is when George HW Bush beat Bill Clinton in 1992 in Texas. Even though the polls showed Clinton up by 3.5 points, Bush won. But we didn't a poll to tell us that Bush would win Texas.
Silver has another piece which shows all the state by state polls which all basically say the same thing: the president is going to win on Tuesday. What I found most interesting about this piece is the admission that if Silver and all the other pollsters are wrong, it's going to be a monumentally bizarre occurrence and they should all, perhaps, find a new line of work!
All these polls of likely voters are the basis for my prediction next week. The president will win 290 electoral votes and Mitt Romney will win 235 with Virginia being a giant WTF, although it has been trending the president's way in the last couple of days. Even Florida has been moving back towards the president and is essentially tied. I still think Romney will win North Carolina.
Five days until the election and things are looking great for the president!
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
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