Well, I suppose it's that time for me to make my final predictions for tomorrow. First up, the presidential election.
President Obama will win 303 electoral votes to Romney's 235 electoral votes. The states that Romney will take back from the Obama 2008 victory will be Indiana (obviously), North Carolina (very much more than likely) and Florida. With that last one, I'm going to have a caveat and that's this recent report from the Times.
The lawsuit was filed after a stream of complaints from voters who sometimes waited nearly seven hours to vote or who did not vote at all because they could not wait for so long to do so.
Seven hours? I thought turnout for the Obama side was going to be low. I can't quite bring myself to say that Florida will go for Obama, even though Nate Silver has it at 46% chance that we will win it, but the momentum there has shifted to the president over the last week and he might eke it out. With Silver showing the popular vote to be 49.9 Romney, Obama 46.9 anything is possible but I'm sticking with no Florida for the president. I just don't feel it.
The Senate will hold for the Democrats largely because of the Tea Party and their purity tests. It doesn't help that they seem to want to nominate old, white men with two dollar haircuts who like to talk about rape (and people wonder why we call them the American Taliban.) I think they Dems are actually going to gain two seats (on Obama's coattails in the deep blue states) and we will be at 55-45 (with Angus King caucusing with the Dems). Winners (from the Swing States): Tester, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heller, Fischer, Flake, Heitkamp, Warren, Murphy, Kaine, Baldwin and Brown. I'd say that's pretty great considering that they really had no chance earlier in the year. Carmona might have had a chance in Arizona but then he showed that he has the same attitude about women that Todd Akin and Richard Murock have.
The House will not be kind for the Democrats. Up until last week, I thought the would pick up around 12-15 seats. Now, I think it will be around 5. Guys like Joe Walsh in Illinois will go because Tammy Duckworth rocks the shizzle but many of the other candidates just don't have the power to upset guys like Steve King from Iowa. And, though I am loathe to admit it, Michele Bachmann will win her seat in MN-6 again. The media has said it's tight but it's not at all, folks. The people up there are hard right wing and will never vote for Democrat even if their lives depended on it (actually, they do, but we've been over this ground before:)) Final tally? 237 Rs, 198 Ds.
For my own home state, we have two ballot issues. The first is the Double Secret Anti-Fag Protection amendment that says that marriage should be only between one man and one woman. I think it will be defeated as I know many Republicans (including the ever venerable last in line) who will be voting NO. The second ballot issue is the Photo ID amendment and I think it will pass, although it will be struck down at the State Supreme Court as being in violation of the US Constitution.
As will likely be the case, feel free to ignore all of my accurate predictions and act like a 12 year old boy on the ones I get wrong:)
8 comments:
Since I could care less about your local predictions and since you haven't been insisting that your statistics are better than everybody else with regards to anything other than the Presidential election - why don't we just stick to that to determine whether you are right or wrong?
Mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose wisely.
–Woody Allen
I generally don't comment on your blog Mark, as indeed it seems the overwhelming majority of people who do are indeed 12 YO boys, and bullies at that.
I suspect your predictions are pretty close.
What can't understand, is why even these 12 YOs act as if we are on the brink of becoming the communist Russia of the 50s and 60s. Obama is to the right of Nixon, and the country as a whole has seen the "center" move extremely far right. I guess some people just can't be happy wining mostly, they have to have EVERYTHING! Me me me, mine mine mine, screw everyone else.
-JC
Obama is to the right of Nixon
What? What color is the sky on your planet?
Example 24,975,769 of why I am not a leftist.
Obama is to the right of Nixon
May I suggest you lay off whatever substance it is that you are consuming.
Near as I can tell, your prediction looks right on the money at this point. Certainly an Obama win. Congrats!
Assuming that the D's keep the Senate, I would have preferred that the R's win two branches to D with one, but, as of now it looks like the government will be pretty strongly divided between the parties, so that's a win in my book. No way Obamacare will be repealed, which is a shame, but that wasn't too likely even with 2 R branches. Looks like the hopes of pollsters being wrong didn't work out too well for the R's, did it?
Congratulations where it is due:
Marxy, you called this election pretty much dead on.
Good job.
Now we start seeing campaign ads for Christie vs HR Clinton?
Thanks guys, although it looks like I will be wrong about Florida.
Good call on Christie. He saw this loss coming and did what he had to do. Not so sure about Hillary because I think Joey the Shark has some plans:)
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