Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Monday, October 24, 2016

Son of Skewed Polls

As yet another severe case of cognitive dissonance descends upon conservatives across our nation, so does the growing cries of skewed polls. Remember how well that worked out in 2012? The polls were accurate in predicting the election.

Nate Silver put up a piece a few weeks ago that should have put all of this to rest. But it didn't. Take a look at this nonsense. Aside from the fact the Silver (and the reality of 2012 outcome) have already pwned this shit, Durden misses a very key point. Polls showing a big lead for Democrats can actually be detrimental to voter turnout. People will see how high up she is and maybe just stay home if their XBox or latest binged watched show seems more alluring.

Perhaps the skewed polls mouth foamers should spend more energy on nominating a conservative candidate who is more appealing to voters. It can't possibly be that voters don't like what we are selling. Or that it doesn't function in reality!!

Friday, February 27, 2015

Conservatives Have A Long Way To Go

A recent PPP poll shows that conservatives really have a long way to go in terms of...oh...I don't know...joining the rest of us past the 15th century!

Q16 (Republicans) Do you believe in evolution or not? 
Believe in evolution 37% 
Do not believe in evolution 49% 
Not sure 13%

Uh...not a matter of belief, folks, it's settled science (see: true, whether you believe it or not). Speaking of which...

Q15 (Republicans) Do you believe in global warming or not? 
Believe in global warming 25% 
Do not believe in global warming 66% 
Not sure 10%

Also, settle science.

So, with nearly half of conservatives not believing in evolution and more than half not believing in global warming, it becomes obvious that this is the party about IRRATIONAL BELIEF, not logic, facts, and evidence. If you look at where they stand on all of the issues of the day, it's really all belief.

Supply Side Economics? Proven to be a failed model and recanted by the people that came up with it (Bruce Bartlett and David Stockman). Still believe? Yep

Guns protect me and my family? Proven to be more likely that an accident is more likely in homes with firearms. Still believe? Yep

Immigrants-self deport! Shown to be completely unfeasible given the number of undocumented workers and how integral they are to our economy. Still believe? Get the fuck out, crime breakers!!

It's no wonder that so many conservatives are very religious. They have tied up all of their beliefs into one, gigantic, epistemically closed ball of intransigence.

And there is nothing more dangerous than ideologues. Why? This...

Q17 (Republicans) Would you support or oppose establishing Christianity as the national religion? 
57% Support establishing Christianity as the national religion
30% Oppose establishing Christianity as the national religion
13% Not sure

Thursday, October 02, 2014

Buzz In The Tiny World Of Poll Nerds

I've been pretty amused by the Twitter war that has blown up between forecasters Sam Wang and Nate Silver. It shouldn't surprise anyone that the blogsphere (especially the right wing blogsphere) and social media need guys like Silver and Wang to thump their digital chests and pwn someone in comments (hmm...Silver and Wang...sounds like a gay porn title:))

In my view, Wang has been too optimistic about the Democrats' chances in taking over the Senate, although his latest model is line with my current prediction as well (51 R, 49 D). Yet, it's important to remember that Silver's model shows the Republicans with a 59.3 percent chance of winning the Senate and the Democrats with a 40.7 of holding on to the Senate. People look at this and say, "Oh, well the GOP are ahead so they will win." That's not how it works in statistics. Wang should know this when he admonishes Silver for being "wrong" about Montana and North Dakota. Silver wasn't wrong. Even though the odds favored the GOP in those races, they still lost. That's what happens sometimes.

The Republicans have been pretty smart this election cycle and kept the real nutters off the ballot. Their candidates have just enough Tea Party in them to pass muster and nowhere near the level of sheer moonbattery to drive midterm voters away. But they have to be careful.

Once the 2014 election is over, the 2016 election officially begins. The tables are going to be turned 180 degrees and the GOP is going to have to defend 24 seats to the Dems 10. If they spend two years acting like children and stonewalling the president, they'll lose the Senate, several seats in the House, and any chance of winning the White House. At half of the approval rating of the president, they will have zero wiggle room to have tantrums. Their future as a party depends on their willingness to compromise because their base is very old and the Democrats' base is young.

That's why I chuckle when I hear this year's GOP candidates say they are going to take it to the president and force their agenda down his throat. Yeah, like that's going to play well in 2016. No, sorry, I predict that if they do win back the Senate, they are going to cave on some issues...just like they always have before...and piss off their "no compromise" base.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Obama's Poll Numbers

Most of the major polling places show the president dropping in the polls to the low 40s. Understandable, considering that he is responsible for the fumbled roll out of the Affordable Care Act web site and registration. So why does Rasmussen, a conservative polling operation, show him dropping only a few points and staying in the mid 40s?

My thought is that Americans aren't as upset with the president as the political media is making it out to be. We haven't heard any stories about the people finding better policies, only stories that are negative. Of course, that is what is popular right now:)

Sunday, November 04, 2012

Now about that poll and the independents...

Any poll that show the president ahead in any of the swing states has to be wrong because the Democrats aren't going to turn out like they did in 2008 and Mitt has all the momentum. All the independents are flocking to Romney.

Oh, and there are more Republicans than Democrats so the polls are skewed.

That's the conventional wisdom coming from the Right going into the last two days before the election. The good news is that if they are wrong, they'll just stomp their feet, make something up, and act like adolescents.  More good news: if they are right, every pollster is wrong, including NBC.

Let's take a look at that poll. First of all, it's not just NBC. The Wall Street Journal was also responsible for the poll and they aren't exactly a bastion of liberalism.The poll is of 971 likely voters more of whom identified as Democrats. This is why the poll is +9 identification in favor of the Democrats. What the Right fails to understand is that they aren't skewing the polls. This is how the people answered the question and, honestly, this is great example of how facts simply bounce off the bubble.

But Mark Murray, Senior Political Editor at NBC, decided to cut the Democratic sample in half just for shits and giggles. Guess what happened? Obama by three...which is the average of all the polls from Ohio and what I think will be right around the margin the president is going to win by on Tuesday. So, dudes on the Right, enough already.

Now as far as that independent claim goes...Newsmax-Zogby shows the president now up 2 points among independents, PPP shows the president up 49-44, ABC-WaPO and Politico show the two candidates tied. These numbers show a trend towards the president.

Overall, Rasmussen still has the race tied at 49-49. I consider that great news for the president.

Saturday, November 03, 2012

Whither the Polls

It's interesting to hear conservatives whine about how the polls are all biased and figuring Republican turnout to be too low and, conversely, Democratic turnout to be too high. The Democrats are not enthusiastic, they say, and won't turn out like they did in 2008. One has to wonder if they are trying to prey upon Democratic nerves and psych them out...nah, can't be.

Of course, the other way to look at this is more positive. By continuing to say (as many in the media are) that voter turnout is going to be lower on the Democratic side, doesn't that motivate more people to vote? Even out of nerves? I think it will.

Personally, I'd much rather be Barack Obama right now, leading by an average of 2.9 percentage points in Ohio right now, than Mitt Romney and his supporters whining about polling bias. I am, however, willing to admit that there is a 16 percent chance that I am wrong about Ohio:)

Monday, October 22, 2012

The Latest Polls

I haven't done a post with polls lately as I have been out of town and simply scheduled a bunch ahead of time. Here is where we are at.

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaNBC News/Wall St. JrnlObama 47, Romney 47Tie
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingObama 45, Romney 52Romney +7
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingObama 47, Romney 49Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingObama 48, Romney 42Obama +6
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Romney 48, Obama 47Romney +1

President Obama Job ApprovalNBC News/Wall St. JrnlApprove 49, Disapprove 48Approve +1
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 49, Disapprove 45Approve +4
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 49, Disapprove 51Disapprove +2
Direction of CountryNBC News/Wall St. JrnlRight Direction 41, Wrong Track 53Wrong Track +12

Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Obama 49, Romney 48Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingObama 47, Romney 47Tie
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaSurveyUSARomney 46, Obama 47Obama +1

Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaFOX NewsObama 46, Romney 43Obama +3
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsRomney 50, Obama 47Romney +3

It's hard to make sense of these polls with one showing Romney up 7 and the other showing Obama up six. The best thing to do is take the average of all the polls and that's probably where we are at. At least with the national polls, the race is a tie.

But the swing states are where this election are going to be won or lost and those states still favor the president. Andy over at has the count at 286-235 with 17 at tie (13 for Virginia and 4 for New Hampshire). I think New Hampshire will go for the president which makes it 290-235. Perhaps I'm being premature but it looks like Florida is going to go for Romney. Virginia? It's an exact tie at this point.

The other thing to take note of is how the approval ratings for the president haven't really changed. What does that mean?

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Polls For Tuesday, October 16th

Here are the polls for today. The obvious one that jumps out right away is the Gallup poll which shows Mitt Romney up 4 points nationally.

But does it matter? The swing state polls haven't really moved that much and with Ohio still polling 2-3 points  that puts the president at 255 so all he needs is Wisconsin and Iowa which have been consistently in the president's column for the entire campaign. A good debate tonight (regardless of what Mitt Romney does) will help cement this lead.

The other poll to take note of is the one in my home state where Bachmann is leading Jim Graves by 9 points. The race seemed much tighter than this in recent polls.

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 50, Obama 46Romney +4
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 49, Obama 47Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 46, Obama 47Obama +1
New Hampshire: Romney vs. ObamaSuffolk/7NewsObama 47, Romney 47Tie
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaQuinnipiacObama 50, Romney 46Obama +4
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaWeAskAmericaRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Iowa: Romney vs. ObamaWeAskAmericaObama 49, Romney 46Obama +3
New Jersey: Romney vs. ObamaQuinnipiacObama 51, Romney 43Obama +8
Indiana: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsRomney 54, Obama 41Romney +13
Washington: Romney vs. ObamaSurveyUSAObama 54, Romney 40Obama +14
Massachusetts: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 57, Romney 42Obama +15
Montana Senate - Rehberg vs. TesterRasmussen ReportsRehberg 48, Tester 48Tie
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseyQuinnipiacCasey 48, Smith 45Casey +3
New Jersey Senate - Kyrillos vs. MenendezQuinnipiacMenendez 55, Kyrillos 37Menendez +18
Washington Governor - McKenna vs. InsleeSurveyUSAInslee 47, McKenna 44Inslee +3
Washington Governor - McKenna vs. InsleeRasmussen ReportsInslee 47, McKenna 45Inslee +2
New Hampshire Governor - Lamontagne vs. HassanSuffolk/7News*Lamontagne 38, Hassan 41Hassan +3
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. DaltonRasmussen ReportsMcCrory 52, Dalton 38McCrory +14
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. DaltonPPP (D)*McCrory 47, Dalton 37McCrory +10
Minnesota 6th District - Bachmann vs. GravesKSTP/SurveyUSABachmann 50, Graves 41Bachmann +9
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 49, Disapprove 45Approve +4
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 48, Disapprove 51Disapprove +3
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorableUSA Today/GallupFavorable 51, Unfavorable 48Favorable +3
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorableUSA Today/GallupFavorable 52, Unfavorable 44Favorable +8

Monday, October 15, 2012

Polls For Monday October 15

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 49, Obama 47Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 49, Obama 48Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 47, Obama 47Tie
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaPolitico/GWU/BattlegroundRomney 48, Obama 49Obama +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaABC News/Wash PostRomney 46, Obama 49Obama +3
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaMorning CallObama 49, Romney 45Obama +4
Iowa: Romney vs. ObamaARGObama 48, Romney 48Tie
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaARGObama 47, Romney 48Romney +1
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingRomney 46, Obama 48Obama +2
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingRomney 49, Obama 48Romney +1
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Obama 51, Romney 44Obama +7
North Carolina: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Romney 49, Obama 47Romney +2
Missouri: Romney vs. ObamaWenzel Strategies (R)Romney 55, Obama 41Romney +14
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KaineRasmussen ReportsKaine 48, Allen 47Kaine +1
Indiana Senate - Mourdock vs. DonnellyRasmussen ReportsMourdock 47, Donnelly 42Mourdock +5
Florida Senate - Mack vs. NelsonRasmussen ReportsNelson 46, Mack 45Nelson +1
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseyMorning CallCasey 41, Smith 39Casey +2
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseyPPP (D)Casey 50, Smith 39Casey +11
New Mexico Senate - Wilson vs. HeinrichAlbuquerque Journal*Heinrich 48, Wilson 39Heinrich +9
Michigan Senate - Hoekstra vs. StabenowRasmussen ReportsStabenow 51, Hoekstra 39Stabenow +12
Virginia 2nd District - Rigell vs. HirschbielVirginian-Pilot/CNURigell 44, Hirschbiel 32Rigell +12
Generic Congressional VotePolitico/GWU/BattlegroundDemocrats 46, Republicans 44Democrats +2
Generic Congressional VoteRasmussen ReportsDemocrats 43, Republicans 42Democrats +1
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 48, Disapprove 47Approve +1
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 49, Disapprove 50Disapprove +1
Obama and Democrats' Health Care PlanRasmussen Reports*For/Favor 42, Against/Oppose 52Against/Oppose +10
President Obama Job ApprovalABC News/Wash PostApprove 50, Disapprove 48Approve +2
President Obama Job ApprovalPolitico/GWU/BattlegroundApprove 50, Disapprove 48Approve +2
Direction of CountryABC News/Wash PostRight Direction 42, Wrong Track 56Wrong Track +14
Direction of CountryPolitico/GWU/BattlegroundRight Direction 40, Wrong Track 53Wrong Track +13
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorablePolitico/GWU/BattlegroundFavorable 53, Unfavorable 45Favorable +8
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorablePolitico/GWU/BattlegroundFavorable 51, Unfavorable 44Favorable +7

Friday, October 12, 2012

Polls For Friday, October 12th

Today's polls show a very sizable lead for Romney in Florida. Unlike my colleagues on the right, I'm not going to say that these polls are stupid and fat. Of course, these polls are accurate to them and the others (the ones that showed Obama ahead there recently) are not:)

And I still don't get the president's approval rating. Could it be that they approve of the job he is doing but think Romney could do better? If so, what specifically can Romney do better? Where are his details?

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 49, Obama 47Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 46, Obama 46Tie
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 47, Romney 49Romney +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. ObamaARGObama 46, Romney 50Romney +4
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaDenver Post/SurveyUSARomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsRomney 51, Obama 47Romney +4
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaARGRomney 49, Obama 46Romney +3
Michigan: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 52, Romney 45Obama +7
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. BrownRasmussen ReportsBrown 47, Mandel 46Brown +1
Florida Senate - Mack vs. NelsonTBT/Herald/Mason-DixonNelson 47, Mack 42Nelson +5
Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. BaldwinRasmussen ReportsBaldwin 51, Thompson 47Baldwin +4
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseyPhiladelphia InquirerCasey 48, Smith 38Casey +10
New Jersey Senate - Kyrillos vs. MenendezPhiladelphia InquirerMenendez 49, Kyrillos 35Menendez +14
New Hampshire Governor - Lamontagne vs. HassanARGLamontagne 46, Hassan 40Lamontagne +6
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 50, Disapprove 44Approve +6
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 50, Disapprove 49Approve +1

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Polls For October 11, 2012

Some good news for the president in the polls below which show him still ahead in the swing states. A good debate showing next Tuesday will help cement his lead.

Ohio doesn't seem to be budging much at all and one has to wonder how very few people there are left there to swing the vote Romney's way. His comments about letting Detroit go bankrupt obviously outweigh the president's lackluster performance in the debate last week.

The president's approval ratings in both Gallup and Rasmussen are great news for him and awful news for Mitt Romney. Historically, presidents with approval ratings above 50 percent win reelection.

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 47, Obama 46Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 47, Obama 48Obama +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaMonmouth/SurveyUSA/BraunRomney 47, Obama 46Romney +1
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 48, Romney 47Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaNBC/WSJ/MaristObama 51, Romney 45Obama +6
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingObama 45, Romney 46Romney +1
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaNBC/WSJ/MaristRomney 47, Obama 48Obama +1
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaNBC/WSJ/MaristObama 47, Romney 48Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacObama 51, Romney 46Obama +5
North Carolina: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsRomney 51, Obama 48Romney +3
Nevada: Romney vs. ObamaSuffolk/KSNVObama 47, Romney 45Obama +2
Wisconsin: Romney vs. ObamaCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacObama 50, Romney 47Obama +3
Michigan: Romney vs. ObamaDetroit NewsObama 49, Romney 42Obama +7
Michigan: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingObama 46, Romney 44Obama +2
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaPhiladelphia InquirerObama 50, Romney 42Obama +8
New Jersey: Romney vs. ObamaPhiladelphia InquirerObama 51, Romney 40Obama +11
California: Romney vs. ObamaSurveyUSAObama 53, Romney 39Obama +14
Massachusetts: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Obama 55, Romney 41Obama +14
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. WarrenRasmussen ReportsWarren 49, Brown 47Warren +2
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. WarrenPPP (D)Warren 50, Brown 44Warren +6
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KaineWeAskAmericaKaine 41, Allen 46Allen +5
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KaineNBC/WSJ/MaristKaine 47, Allen 46Kaine +1
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. BrownNBC/WSJ/MaristBrown 52, Mandel 41Brown +11
Florida Senate - Mack vs. NelsonNBC/WSJ/MaristNelson 52, Mack 39Nelson +13
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KaineCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacKaine 51, Allen 44Kaine +7
Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. BaldwinCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacBaldwin 48, Thompson 46Baldwin +2
Nevada Senate - Heller vs. BerkleySuffolk/KSNV*Heller 40, Berkley 37Heller +3
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseyRasmussen ReportsCasey 49, Smith 45Casey +4
Michigan Senate - Hoekstra vs. StabenowDetroit NewsStabenow 50, Hoekstra 38Stabenow +12
New Mexico Senate - Wilson vs. HeinrichRasmussen ReportsHeinrich 52, Wilson 39Heinrich +13
California Senate - Emken vs. FeinsteinSurveyUSAFeinstein 54, Emken 35Feinstein +19
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 52, Disapprove 43Approve +9
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 51, Disapprove 48Approve +3
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorableMonmouth/SurveyUSA/BraunFavorable 46, Unfavorable 45Favorable +1
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorableMonmouth/SurveyUSA/BraunFavorable 46, Unfavorable 39Favorable +7