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Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Polls For Wednesday October 10th

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaFOX NewsRomney 46, Obama 45Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 48, Obama 48Tie
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 49, Obama 44Romney +5
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaSurveyUSAObama 45, Romney 44Obama +1
Wisconsin: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 51, Romney 49Obama +2
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaUNFRomney 45, Obama 49Obama +4
New Hampshire: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 48, Romney 48Tie
Nevada: Romney vs. ObamaLVRJ/SurveyUSAObama 47, Romney 46Obama +1
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 51, Romney 46Obama +5
New Mexico: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 54, Romney 43Obama +11
Montana: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Romney 52, Obama 41Romney +11
Maine: Romney vs. ObamaPan Atlantic SMSObama 51, Romney 37Obama +14
Rhode Island: Romney vs. ObamaBrown UniversityObama 58, Romney 32Obama +26
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. BrownSurveyUSA*Brown 42, Mandel 38Brown +4
Nevada Senate - Heller vs. BerkleyRasmussen ReportsHeller 48, Berkley 45Heller +3
Montana Senate - Rehberg vs. TesterPPP (D)*Rehberg 43, Tester 45Tester +2
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseySusquehannaCasey 46, Smith 44Casey +2
Maine Senate - Summers vs. Dill vs. KingPan Atlantic SMSKing 50, Summers 24, Dill 12King +26
Rhode Island Senate - Hinckley vs. WhitehouseBrown UniversityWhitehouse 59, Hinckley 30Whitehouse +29
Montana At-Large - Daines vs. GillanPPP (D)Daines 43, Gillan 34Daines +9
Rhode Island 1st District - Doherty vs. CicillineBrown UniversityCicilline 46, Doherty 40Cicilline +6
President Obama Job ApprovalFOX NewsApprove 49, Disapprove 48Approve +1
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 53, Disapprove 42Approve +11
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 49, Disapprove 50Disapprove +1
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorableFOX NewsFavorable 51, Unfavorable 45Favorable +6
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorableFOX NewsFavorable 52, Unfavorable 42Favorable +10

Loads of polls today..

The Florida one is very interesting considering Romney's recent gains there.

I'm not sure why they are polling some of the eastern states...seems like a waste of time to me.

The last two polls (post debate) from Ohio have the president up +4 and +1 so I'm hoping this silences the shrieking from the left.

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Polls For Tuesday, October 9th

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 49, Obama 47Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 47, Obama 45Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 48, Obama 48Tie
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaCNN/Opinion ResearchObama 51, Romney 47Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaARGObama 47, Romney 48Romney +1
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaSienaObama 43, Romney 40Obama +3
Nevada: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 47, Romney 47Tie
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaARGRomney 50, Obama 46Romney +4
Minnesota: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Obama 53, Romney 43Obama +10
North Carolina: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingRomney 50, Obama 41Romney +9
Connecticut: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 51, Romney 45Obama +6
North Dakota: Romney vs. ObamaMason-DixonRomney 54, Obama 40Romney +14
Massachusetts: Romney vs. ObamaWBUR/MassINCObama 52, Romney 36Obama +16
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. WarrenWBUR/MassINCWarren 45, Brown 48Brown +3
North Dakota Senate - Berg vs. HeitkampMason-DixonBerg 47, Heitkamp 47Tie
Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. MurphyRasmussen ReportsMurphy 51, McMahon 46Murphy +5
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseySienaCasey 44, Smith 35Casey +9
Minnesota Senate - Bills vs. KlobucharPPP (D)Klobuchar 57, Bills 31Klobuchar +26
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. DaltonGravis MarketingMcCrory 50, Dalton 33McCrory +17
North Dakota At-Large - Cramer vs. GullesonMason-DixonCramer 49, Gulleson 37Cramer +12
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 53, Disapprove 42Approve +11
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 49, Disapprove 50Disapprove +1
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorableABC News/Wash PostFavorable 55, Unfavorable 44Favorable +11
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorableABC News/Wash PostFavorable 47, Unfavorable 51Unfavorable +4

At first glance, this all looks like bad news for the president. Gallup has him down 2 points with Rasmussen having the race exactly tied. He's also lost some ground in North Carolina and Colorado. Remember that Gallup has now switched from "Registered Voters" to "Likely Voters" so now we can see that enthusiasm gap very, very clearly, favoring the Republicans.

But these are nationwide polls and if we look at a very key swing state like Ohio things look just about the same for the president since before the debate. The new Ohio poll from CNN (taken 10/5-10/8) shows the president up 51-47 with the ARG poll showing Romney up 48-47. The CNN poll is likely voters so that is very good news for the president.

And the president's approval rating has actually increased an overall net of 4 points and now stands at 53 percent. His favorables are still in the plus column while Romney's are still in the minus column. These numbers are now well after the debate which means...what, exactly? I guess I don't know for sure but it does mean not as much doom and gloom for the president because the head to head numbers don't fully reflect the jobs data release as much as the approval/favorable numbers.

One other thing to note here is the Senate picture still looks good for the Democrats. The fact that North Dakota is competitive is truly amazing and an excellent testament to being able to win in a deep red state if you are a good candidate like Heidi Heitkamp.


Monday, October 08, 2012

Polls For Monday, October 8th

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaPew ResearchObama 45, Romney 49Romney +4
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaPolitico/GWU/BattlegroundObama 49, Romney 48Obama +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup Tracking*Obama 47, Romney 47Tie
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup Tracking*Obama 50, Romney 45Obama +5
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingObama 48, Romney 48Tie
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaSusquehannaObama 47, Romney 45Obama +2
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 49, Romney 48Obama +1
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Obama 50, Romney 47Obama +3
Iowa: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 49, Romney 47Obama +2
Massachusetts: Romney vs. ObamaWestern NE UniversityObama 63, Romney 33Obama +30
Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. BaldwinPPP (D)Baldwin 49, Thompson 46Baldwin +3
Florida Senate - Mack vs. NelsonWeAskAmericaNelson 44, Mack 44Tie
Florida Senate - Mack vs. NelsonRasmussen ReportsNelson 52, Mack 41Nelson +11
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KainePPP (D)Kaine 51, Allen 44Kaine +7
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. BrownWeAskAmericaBrown 46, Mandel 44Brown +2
Generic Congressional VotePolitico/GWU/BattlegroundRepublicans 45, Democrats 46Democrats +1
President Obama Job ApprovalPolitico/GWU/BattlegroundApprove 50, Disapprove 48Approve +2
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 51, Disapprove 44Approve +7
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 51, Disapprove 49Approve +2
Obama and Democrats' Health Care PlanRasmussen Reports*For/Favor 39, Against/Oppose 54Against/Oppose +15
Direction of CountryPolitico/GWU/BattlegroundRight Direction 39, Wrong Track 54Wrong Track +15
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorablePew ResearchFavorable 49, Unfavorable 48Favorable +1
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorablePew ResearchFavorable 50, Unfavorable 46Favorable +4
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorablePolitico/GWU/BattlegroundFavorable 52, Unfavorable 45Favorable +7
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorablePolitico/GWU/BattlegroundFavorable 47, Unfavorable 47Tie

A ton of new polls today and they make the election look even more muddy.

The two Gallup polls should be noted first as the one that is the tie is from the three days after the debate whole the one that shows the president 5 points ahead is a 7 day tracking poll.

I'm still stunned that both Rasmussen and Gallup have the president's approval rating above 50 percent. That makes no sense at considering the poor debate performance.

The battleground states look like they are still hanging in there for the president. Iowa, in particular, has been solid Obama for awhile now and with the latest being a Rasmussen poll, it's like more like +4 or +5 Obama because they don't figure in cel phone users.

The Pew Research Poll really shows the effects of the debate and the enthusiasm gap. The key to a decisive victory for the president is to get out the vote. He does that and he wins just be sheer demographics.

More Senate polls that show how it's nearly hopeless that the GOP is going to take back the Senate.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Polls For Saturday Oct 6th

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingObama 49, Romney 46Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingObama 47, Romney 49Romney +2
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingObama 46, Romney 49Romney +3
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 50, Disapprove 45Approve +5
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 50, Disapprove 49Approve +1

So, these are the first real post debate polls and they make no sense to me. After the president's poor performance on Wednesday night, I expected Gallup to be dead even and Rasmussen to have Romney up by 4 (recall that Rasmussen does not poll cel phone users so their numbers and they sample more GOP so their numbers skew Republican).

Moreover, the approval rating for both Gallup and Rasmussen is still at 50 percent. I don't get it after how much he sucked at the debate.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Post Debate Poll

Here's that CBS poll that everyone has been talking about taken right after the debate.

In the moments following the candidates' performances on the University of Denver stage, 46 percent of voters gave the economy-centric debate to Romney, 22 percent said they believed the president was the winner, and 32 percent called it a tie. More good news for the GOP nominee: 56 percent of those polled said they viewed Romney in a better light after watching the debate. Eleven percent said their opinion of him dropped, and 32 percent cited no change in opinion.

54 percent of the people said they thought the president won or it was a tie? Obviously, Romney won so what's the deal here? Remember, these are uncommitted voters and it seems to me that they aren't swayed by the types of arguments that both the right and the left think they will be swayed by.

Polls For Thursday, October 4th

Here are today's polls, taken obviously before the debate last night. Take a look at Gallup's approval rating. The last time the president saw a number this high was August of 2009! This is even higher than Gallup's reading immediately following the death of Osama bin Laden (May of 2011). He still maintains a 4 point lead nationally in the general.

Well, he's going to need it come the weekend when we start seeing the post debate polls. Obviously, he's going to drop but by how much? Keep your eye on Ohio.

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)PollResultsSpread
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingObama 49, Romney 45Obama +4
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingObama 49, Romney 47Obama +2
Missouri: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsRomney 49, Obama 46Romney +3
Connecticut: Romney vs. ObamaQuinnipiacObama 54, Romney 42Obama +12
Hawaii: Romney vs. ObamaHonolulu Civil Beat/MRGObama 62, Romney 30Obama +32
Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. MurphyQuinnipiacMurphy 47, McMahon 48McMahon +1
Washington Senate - Baumgartner vs. CantwellRasmussen ReportsCantwell 57, Baumgartner 37Cantwell +20
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. DaltonRasmussen ReportsMcCrory 54, Dalton 38McCrory +16
New Hampshire 1st District - Guinta vs. Shea-PorterWMUR/UNHShea-Porter 47, Guinta 38Shea-Porter +9
New Hampshire 2nd District - Bass vs. KusterWMUR/UNHKuster 42, Bass 41Kuster +1
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 54, Disapprove 42Approve +12
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 49, Disapprove 49Tie