Contributors

Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts

Monday, September 14, 2015

What A Dark Crowd

The Times has a great piece up about how the GOP are really very negative on the state of our country. When you see all of their statements collected together, one has to wonder what they live in. A "hell hole?" "Watching helplessly as we descend into a  third world country?" "Tyranny...lawlessness...Americans will die?"

Really?

I realize they are trying to appeal to their base of angry, mouth foaming haters but saying that America is on fire doesn't represent reality at all.


Tuesday, July 28, 2015

The Trump Bubble Has Still Not Burst

Recent polls show Donald Trump as the clear front runner of the GOP nomination. He's ahead of Jeb Bush in New Hampshire by seven points and has pulled to within 2 of Scott Walker in Iowa. Conversely, he would get his ass kicked by Hillary in a general by 16 points and, most surprisingly, by Bernie Sanders by 21 points! The other interesting note about the polls show Jeb only beating Bernie Sanders by 1 point, certainly within the margin of error, while a Sanders-Walker matchup (wouldn't that be something?) has Sanders coming out on top by five points.

Predictions of the Trump Bubble bursting have not come to pass. It's not really that surprising given that he truly is the epitome of the conservative base. He's aristocratic, authoritarian, wealthy, arrogant, loud, angry, fear peddling, hate filled and has one conviction...his own vanity. The words he uses and how he uses them are nearly identical to those we see in the major right wing forums. Any facts presented that directly refute what he says are ignored with hubris.

He's the pissed adolescent's wet fucking dream.

Friday, January 09, 2015

The Obummer Destruction of the Economy Continues

Today's jobs report was very positive with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.6% and 252,000 jobs added in the month of December. November's jobs number was revised upwards to over 350,000 jobs. Overall, the economy added nearly three million jobs in 2014.






















I look at this graph and I have to wonder, where is the "Obummer Destruction of the economy" I hear so much about from conservatives? Certainly, you can't credit the president completely for the improved economy but his policies have most definitely helped.

As always, I'm still waiting for that "tough history coming." Any day now...:)

Sunday, January 04, 2015

Saturday, October 18, 2014

The Democrats Have Already Won

Even though the election is two and half weeks away, the Democrats have already won.

Consider for a moment what happens if the GOP takes back the Senate (which I think they will). They will have one of two options. They can continue to behave like 12 year old boys, be stubborn and immovable, have temper tantrums, and play to their base with Obama hating. Or they can compromise and take credit for doing things they didn't want to give the president a full win on. Either way, the Democrats win.

If Republicans take the first route, they are fucked in 2016. Higher voter turnout will erase any victories gained this year with the GOP having to defend 24 of the 34 seats up for reelection in two years. The House will see losses as well. And, with a likely Hillary Clinton candidacy, the Democrats will see even higher voter enthusiasm as we could potentially elect our first woman president.

If Republicans take the second route, the country benefits and we actually get some things done we needed to get done six years ago.

Sally Kohn echoes much of this sentiment in a recent piece over at CNN. The fact that the Senate is still a contest does not bode well for the future of the GOP. Republicans tap dancing around the ACA is fucking hilarious. Even more funny is how desperate they seem.

Wasn't this election supposed to be about Obamacare? No, that didn't work. So Republicans tried to make the midterms about Benghazi. No luck there either. Now they're just generally fear-mongering around ISIS and Ebola and hoping that would work. But the constantly shifting Republican shell game shows how little substantive traction conservatives have with average voters outside their highly gerrymandered House districts. 

Every time they open their mouths, Republican candidates show that they habitually bash President Obama to distract from the impression that they have neither the intention nor ability to help solve urgent problems facing the country.

Yep.

On the point of traction with average voters...

Economic equality and reproductive freedom are basic priorities for women voters, a group that Republicans already had a tough time winning over. The GOP even commissioned its own poll that found women voters are "barely receptive" to Republican ideas and think the party is "intolerant" and "stuck in the past." By their own deeds, not to mention rhetoric, Republicans just keep reinforcing their war on women and driving voters away.

With all of this, I say the GOP picks option two after they take back the Senate.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Election 2014 Update

Now that we are sufficiently past the Labor Day holiday, we can take a look at the polls for November election and see a much clearer picture. At this point in time, things don't look good at all for the Democrats.

The two main sources I use in predicting elections are RealClear Politics and Nate Silver's 538 Blog. The former currently has 45 D and 47 R with 9 tossups so let's start with that baseline and build from there. Silver has Michigan and New Hampshire going to the Dems with an 82 percent chance and North Carolina doing the same with a 76 percent chance. That puts the Senate at 47-47 with six seats up for grabs. This is exactly where control for the Senate will be fought.

Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, and Kansas.

Before we focus on these states, it's worth a moment to note Kentucky and Louisiana. It looks like Mitch McConnell is firmly in control of winning back his seat. Alison Grimes is a great candidate but she hasn't been able to make any headway. Given all the data that goes into predicting elections, the most important of which is turnout, things don't look good for her at all. Nor do they look good for Mary Landrieu with RCP having Louisiana as a lean R and part of that 47. She is also not a good candidate and will not get the 50 percent of the vote needed to prevent a runoff which will occur in December. At this point, I predict that this election will tip the outcome of the Senate. More on that in a moment.

Colorado will go for the Democrats. There is also an election for the state's governor there which means larger voter turnout. That always favors the Democrats. John Hickenlooper is in a tight race but I think he will prevail. So will Tom Udall despite the recent Quinnipiac poll which no one really takes seriously (compare them to other polls). I also think Iowa will go for the incredibly flawed candidate, Bruce Braley. There will also be a bigger turnout in this state because of the gubernatorial election (event though Terry Branstead will win) and thus, more Democratic voters. Iowa also does not elect women Senators.

So, that brings the Dems to 49 but at this point, I think that is all they are going to get. Silver has Alaska, Arkansas and Georgia all going R with over a 70 percent chance and I think he is right with one small caveat. The Alaska voters are very hard to poll and turnout is always low yet still favors incumbents so everyone could be off on this one. But let's say it goes red so now the GOP has 50 and that leaves us with Kansas. Greg Orman was recently courted by the failed Tea Party candidate, Milton Wolf and I think that he will eventually caucus with the Republicans. He could surprise everyone, however, and be the first truly independent candidate but Kansas is a red state so it's likely he will want to please his voters. That puts the GOP at 51.

Of course, on election night, it will be 50 GOP, 49 Dems with Louisiana into a runoff. Suddenly all eyes will be on Mary Landrieu and I don't think she will be up to the task. Millions will be poured into the runoff but it won't work for the Democrats. At this point, I predict that the Senate will be 51 R, 49 Dem. 

Could there be twists, turns and surprises which will alter my prediction?

Naturally. I could be off on Orman (a former Democrat) and the anti-GOP sentiment in Kansas, due to the absolute failure of the conservative economic policies of Sam Brownback, could tip him into caucusing with the Democrats. Or Begich, Pryor could pull it out. It's very hard to unseat an incumbent. Perhaps Iowa could surprise and elect a woman.

No doubt, things are going to be very exciting in the next few weeks!

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Good Question

Here is a great question from Quora...

If the United States is in crisis, as the Republicans tell us, why can't they come together with the president and support policies that will help? Why can't they work with the president to fix it?

The best answer so far...

It is the crisis that Republicans are creating. I'm not trying to be cute and flip the question back at you. This is my sincere, objective judgement of the state of the nation. I'm more than willing to concede a point to anyone, but all is hear from Republicans is arrogance, contempt, dishonest tactics and a political agenda based on insulting everyone that disagrees....disagrees with a profoundly ignorant set of petulant obsessions.

One thing he forgot was the shrill cry from conservatives that it's actually the Democrats that are all these things but I supposed that could be put under the category of dishonest tactics.

There was also this brilliant comment on this answer.

The far-right lurch that the Republican party took with the Tea Party faction is troublesome. Germany experienced a similar faction in 1920 and there are several parallels in attitudes and policies shared by both. Rationalizing that they are different in different times does not remotely diminish the destructive right-wing actions. A party not working in concert with the leaders of a nation are harming the nation with its bullying and lack of cooperation, plain and simple. Anyone, even with a diminished ability to think, sees no leadership in an approach that has nothing constructive to add, only blocking tactics.

This is exactly how totalitarian governments are born. And they always start with accusing the other side of being totalitarian:)

Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Size of the Wave

Larry Sabato has an interesting piece up about the 2014 Election. Checkout his two graphics.





































I largely agree with his metric. I'd say that South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana are pretty much out of reach. He makes an interesting case for West Virginia and Montana staying blue but we have to be realistic.

I rank Mary Landrieu as being more in danger than Pryor. The latest polls show Pryor up fairly high and I think he is going to hold on. Tom Cotton is a flawed candidate and people really love Pryor. I think Begich will hold on as well. Hagan is a giant ? in North Carolina.

So, my early prognostication after delving in to Sabato's work and adding in my analysis is that the Republicans will pick up South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, and probably North Carolina. Yet they will lose Kentucky, leaving the Senate at 51-49. Take this prediction with a boulder of salt and realize that it's just an exercise in folly at this point, done purely for the fun of me being political nerd.

Of course, the teacher nerd in me would love it if the Senate ended up tied 50-50. Think of the civics lessons it would produce!! Cue Joe Biden...:)

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Bill Maher on Racism

Monday, March 24, 2014

Are The Republicans Celebrating Too Soon?

If you pay attention to politics, the 2014 elections (over seven months away and without nominees in many contests) has already been won by the Republicans. They've gained more seats in the House and taken back the Senate. Even statistical guru Nate Silver is on their side this time (his new site is pretty boss, btw).

But Tim Alberta says, "Whoa, there, son" and posits that the GOP is celebrating too soon. In looking at his main points, I don't see much progress. In short, he's right. And so is Doug Sosnik. The Republicans are channeling Groucho Marx.

At the national level, Republicans continue to be viewed as the congressional opposition party whose intransigence led to the government shutdown last October. These same interests actively worked to scuttle immigration reform this year. In this environment, it’s the likes of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and California Rep. Darrell Issa who define the Republican brand. The struggle for the party’s future is playing out in real time as we approach the crucial period leading up to the 2016 elections. Ironically, Republicans’ short-term tactics to pick up additional seats in the 2014 midterms—as well as the rightward pressures of the presidential primary process—will only reinforce the public’s perception of the Republican Party as unwelcoming and out of step with the majority of Americans.

Right. They only think in terms of short term gains and never long term victories. 2016 could be an absolute disaster for Republicans if they don't moderate now. They'll have 24 seats up in the Senate and it's a presidential year which means higher voter turnout on the Democratic side. If Hillary runs, she will likely win and possibly have both Houses back.

It will be interesting to see who they put up for candidates against the vulnerable Democrats. If they go moderate, it's a sign that they are thinking ahead to 2016. If not, they won't take back the Senate and will totally fuck themselves in two years.

Thursday, March 13, 2014

The Biopolar Republican

Greg Walden, the Republican Representative from Oregon's 2nd district and the man in charge of keeping the GOP in charge of the house, is a great example of just how bipolar the Republican Party is these days. On Tuesday morning, before the special election in Florida's 13th district, he said, "Whether we win it or lose it, the special elections aren’t too predictive for either side going forward.

"If there’s any advantage of a special election,” Walden added, “it’s that you can test messages, and you can test strategies, and you can test sort of your theories on voter turnout and I.D. So, I mean, that’s kind of the takeaway . . . from a special, far more than is it indicative of what’s going to happen 239 days from now."

After David Jolly won, however, he had this to say.

"David proved that Pinellas County voters are tired of the devastating policies of this administration. Tonight, one of Nancy Pelosi’s most prized candidates was ultimately brought down because of her unwavering support for Obamacare, and that should be a loud warning for other Democrats running coast to coast."

Wow. That's quite a switch. Which should we believe? As Dana Milbank noted, he was right the first time.  And, as I predicted on Tuesday, things are playing out as expected.

The Democrats need to stop wringing their hands and recognize reality. They need to get voters to to turn out. If they do that, they will hold the Senate. They don't have much of a chance of flipping the House so the best they can do is try not to lose too many seats. Of course, as I type this, everything could change if the GOP puts up more candidates like Paul Broun. I've learned to never underestimate just how full on moonbat the Right gets in elections these days.

But it's really all about turnout. If the president's election machine (Organizing For America) can get people to the polls, the Democrats will be in good shape this fall and have no reason to panic right now. 


Saturday, March 08, 2014

What is James Madison's Worst Nightmare?

Rich Yeselson's piece on Republican obstructionism is a must read. The chief author of the Constitution would indeed be disgusted.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

For Arizona Republicans


Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Debt Ceiling Raised

House passes clean debt ceiling bill

Yes, I believe they have learned the folly of their ways...especially in an election year.

Thursday, October 31, 2013


Thursday, September 12, 2013

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Another Cult Member Exits Stage Left!

Clint Murphy has left The Cult, ladies and gentlemen. And it took a bout with testicular cancer to spur him into reflection. Of course, this comes after Newt Gingrich, who last week said that Republicans had "zero" ideas for a replacement to the Affordable Care Act.

“I will bet you, for most of you, you go home in the next two weeks when your members of Congress are home, and you look them in the eye and you say, ‘What is your positive replacement for Obamacare?’ They will have zero answer,” Gingrich told the Boston crowd, said a report from CNN. Gingrich said the party has a “very deep problem” with a culture that promotes negativity. “We are caught up right now in a culture, and you see it every single day, where as long as we are negative and as long as we are vicious and as long as we can tear down our opponent, we don’t have to learn anything. And so we don’t,” Gingrich said, according to video of the event from MSNBC.

Gee, Newt, I've been saying that for...oh...I don't know how many years now...

Mr. Murphy had much more to say. His Facebook post on Obamacare last week, addressed to his Republican friends, was something of a surprise:

“When you say you’re against it, you’re saying that you don’t want people like me to have health insurance.” Murphy would like to call himself a Republican, but has been too dismayed by his party’s cavalier attitude toward the health care debate. “We have people treating government like a Broadway play, like it’s some sort of entertainment,” he said. So call Murphy an independent.

Obamacare isn’t perfect, the former political spear-carrier said. “But to even improve it, to make something work, you’ve got to participate in the process. [Republicans] are not even participating in the process.”

They do a fine job of entertaining all too willing masses and a downright crappy job of participating in the process. Kind of like...oh, I don't know...a lazy adolescent who has problems with this parents?

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Monday, June 17, 2013

Oh, Really?

If conservatives across the country haven't started shitting themselves, they should now.

Over the next several years, Battleground Texas will focus on expanding the electorate by registering more voters – and, as importantly, mobilizing those Texans who are already registered but who have not been engaged in the democratic process. And we’ll use the data-driven, people-focused approach that has helped win grassroots campaigns around the country.

By data driven, they mean the same approach the Obama campaign used led by Jim Messina. That worked pretty well, didn't it?

My message to conservatives is simple: moderate. Or you are going to cease to exist as a political party.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

No Shit, Bob

Former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole says he doesn't believe he could make it in the modern Republican Party. 

"I doubt it," he said in an interview aired on "Fox News Sunday" when asked if his generation of Republican leaders could make it in today's GOP. "Reagan couldn't have made it. Certainly, Nixon couldn't have made it, cause he had ideas. We might've made it, but I doubt it." 

Dole, a wounded World War II veteran from Kansas and icon of the party, said he believes it needs to rethink the direction it's heading in. 

"They ought to put a sign on the National Committee doors that says 'Closed for repairs,' until New Year's Day next year," he said. "And spend that time going over ideas and positive agendas."

How many elections are they going to lose before they get this message?