Showing posts with label Rachel Bitecofer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rachel Bitecofer. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

The Myth of the Secret Trump Voter

“Dear everyone: there’s no such thing as a “secret Trump vote.” What there is is a really high turnout rate for Rep voters- like in the 70s- as compared to D turnout which at best hit the mid 60s in my 2018 voter file analysis.” (Rachel Bitecofer)

 Please give Rachel a follow and stop listening to nonsense about secret or shy Trump voters. Republicans vote more reliably than Democrats. That’s the only way they can win.

Saturday, May 02, 2020

Rachel Bitecofer Spoils the 2020 Election

How do things look for the Dems this fall? Quite good.

Thursday, April 16, 2020

What Wisconsin Tells Us About the Election in the Fall

The recent primary in Wisconsin tell us that the Trump Party should be shitting themselves and I'm talking explosive diarrhea. The ploy by the GOP to have the election anyway in the middle of a pandemic completely backfired as democratic turnout was massive. Even with only 5 of 108 polling places open in Milwaukee, Jill Karofsky still managed to defeat conservative Justice Daniel Kelly.  So, what does this tell us?

Democrats are fired up, want Trump gone, and won't even let potential death from Covid1-19 stop them. This is exactly what Rachel Bitecofer has been saying. Trump is toast and will get his ass kicked in November...assuming he doesn't quit before then. He's looking awfully shaky these days and really out of it.

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Trump's Re-Election Bid Even Dimmer

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer has released her latest model for the 2020 election and it looks even worse for Donald Trump in November. As Biden locks up the nomination (and promises to pick a woman for his VP), it's hard to see how Trump, who basically drew a straight flush and barely won in 2016, can win in the fall. Why?

As Bitecofer notes in her latest projection and her piece for the New Republic, the last three election cycles have shown that white, educated voters, especially those in the suburbs, have deserted the GOP. One wonders why they elected to ignore their 2008 election post mortem and simply shoot for short term goals by appealing to old, uneducated white voters. Our electorate is becoming more diverse and younger with around 80 million people under the age of 40 set to vote this fall. The one thing they all have in common?

They hate Trump and want him gone.

We know that Republicans always vote and do so at a clip of 83%. They are very reliable voters. But their numbers simply don't match liberals and lean left independents who are very afraid and angry about a second Trump term. Even in 2018 when Republicans turned out in higher numbers than ever to support their guy, the Democrats still claimed 42 seats in the House.

Turnout in primaries has been very high in the states that have gone thus far. The base is energized, despite a worldwide pandemic.

All of these facts seem lost on folks like Kevin Baker and his followers who don't really seem to be paying attention to what's coming. They live in a very strange reality where 2016 will somehow be repeated, there are secret Trump followers everywhere, the election of 2018 never happened, and Virginia (a great indicator of what's to come for them) didn't just turn entirely blue and pass a whole slew of new gun safety laws.

Perhaps they should pay more attention to the Doc...:)

Saturday, March 07, 2020

Election 2020

Rachel Bitecofer was on Bill Maher last night and that made me very happy. Follow her on Twitter for all of her latest analyses. Her model is looking very good for Democrats with Biden as the nominee, especially given the massive turnout on Tuesday.

Of course, the Biden hand wringing has already begun but his deficits (gaffes, Burisma etc) don't really matter. Democrats fear Trump winning three times more than dying so they are going to vote in the fall for Biden. Black voters are going to vote for Biden. The suburban white voter is gone for Republicans and will vote for Biden. And the Bernie voters are going to go for Biden in greater numbers than in 2016 because we live in an age of hyper-partisanship.

The Senate also looks better now that Steve Bullock is in the race for that Montana Senate. Republicans can kiss Maine, Colorado, and Arizona goodbye. That puts us at 50-50. With the Alabama race now at a runoff for the GOP and black voters highly motivated in that state, Doug Jones keeps his state. North Carolina is looking more positive, Iowa is in play, and Mitch McConnell is even looking like he might not make it. Could the Dems flip and make it a 53-47 advantage?

Yes. Yes, they could.

Friday, February 14, 2020

The Chest Thumping, Insecure Nonsense of Kevin Baker and His Merry Band of Authoritarians

The Democrats are a near lock to win the electoral college in 2020. How do we know this? Look no further than Rachel "the Doc" Bitcofer.

A recent piece in Politico has elevated her to national recognition and I highly recommend following her on Twitter as well as examining her model for 2020. Bitecofer saw some basic facts in the election of 2016 and was able to correctly predict the outcome of the 2018 election down to the seat. She also predicted Virginia in 2019. Those facts say that for the first time in history, Republicans lost the white, male, college educated voted in 2016. Trump's path to the White House, as she puts it, "which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate."

There is no such thing as a "swing" voter anymore. Not in this age of hyper-partisan politics. It's all about turnout and any of the top candidates in the Democratic field are going to destroy Trump.

So, when I read the chest thumping, insecure nonsense of Kevin Baker, quoting a likely Russian trollbot, I just shook my head. Projection. Again. Some things never change.

Because the shock is going to be entirely on his side of the aisle when he can't seem to fathom, the day after the election, how Trump lost. And so badly. Likely, he, along with other Trump supporters, will blame the media and the elites and others they are all jealous of but in the final analysis, it's going to come down to the simple fact that there are more of us that are going to vote than there are Trump voters.

Bernie has a fucking army. Young people will turn out for him by the millions. Mayor Pete will turn out moderates and a whole new generation of voters. Amy Klobuchar will pull the Democrats who voted for Trump back into the fold. Bloomberg, even if he isn't the nominee, will spend billions to defeat Trump. Kevin, do you not understand what you are up against?

Kevin et al, I would suggest seeking therapy for your issues with people that are successful, intelligent, accomplished and do things to help people (i.e Democrats and the few Republicans left who aren't Trumpified). You guys have built an entire political ideology around petty insecurity, irrational jealousy, feelings of inferiority and inadequacies, and childish bullying. Your party is fucking done. You just don’t see it yet.

Moreover, your party has become an authoritarian cult and you are cheering it on. History has not been kind to leaders and supporters of such endeavors. I’d recommend changing your tune fairly quickly if you don’t want your life to be miserable.

And I'd recommend following the Doc on Twitter. I realize the cognitive dissonance might be too much for you but it will ease pain of what's coming. It will also help you remember that happened in 2018 and 2019.