Rachel Bitecofer was on Bill Maher last night and that made me very happy. Follow her on Twitter for all of her latest analyses. Her model is looking very good for Democrats with Biden as the nominee, especially given the massive turnout on Tuesday.
Of course, the Biden hand wringing has already begun but his deficits (gaffes, Burisma etc) don't really matter. Democrats fear Trump winning three times more than dying so they are going to vote in the fall for Biden. Black voters are going to vote for Biden. The suburban white voter is gone for Republicans and will vote for Biden. And the Bernie voters are going to go for Biden in greater numbers than in 2016 because we live in an age of hyper-partisanship.
The Senate also looks better now that Steve Bullock is in the race for that Montana Senate. Republicans can kiss Maine, Colorado, and Arizona goodbye. That puts us at 50-50. With the Alabama race now at a runoff for the GOP and black voters highly motivated in that state, Doug Jones keeps his state. North Carolina is looking more positive, Iowa is in play, and Mitch McConnell is even looking like he might not make it. Could the Dems flip and make it a 53-47 advantage?
Yes. Yes, they could.
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