Contributors

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Trump's Re-Election Bid Even Dimmer

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer has released her latest model for the 2020 election and it looks even worse for Donald Trump in November. As Biden locks up the nomination (and promises to pick a woman for his VP), it's hard to see how Trump, who basically drew a straight flush and barely won in 2016, can win in the fall. Why?

As Bitecofer notes in her latest projection and her piece for the New Republic, the last three election cycles have shown that white, educated voters, especially those in the suburbs, have deserted the GOP. One wonders why they elected to ignore their 2008 election post mortem and simply shoot for short term goals by appealing to old, uneducated white voters. Our electorate is becoming more diverse and younger with around 80 million people under the age of 40 set to vote this fall. The one thing they all have in common?

They hate Trump and want him gone.

We know that Republicans always vote and do so at a clip of 83%. They are very reliable voters. But their numbers simply don't match liberals and lean left independents who are very afraid and angry about a second Trump term. Even in 2018 when Republicans turned out in higher numbers than ever to support their guy, the Democrats still claimed 42 seats in the House.

Turnout in primaries has been very high in the states that have gone thus far. The base is energized, despite a worldwide pandemic.

All of these facts seem lost on folks like Kevin Baker and his followers who don't really seem to be paying attention to what's coming. They live in a very strange reality where 2016 will somehow be repeated, there are secret Trump followers everywhere, the election of 2018 never happened, and Virginia (a great indicator of what's to come for them) didn't just turn entirely blue and pass a whole slew of new gun safety laws.

Perhaps they should pay more attention to the Doc...:)

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