Any poll that show the president ahead in any of the swing states has to be wrong because the Democrats aren't going to turn out like they did in 2008 and Mitt has all the momentum. All the independents are flocking to Romney.
Oh, and there are more Republicans than Democrats so the polls are skewed.
That's the conventional wisdom coming from the Right going into the last two days before the election. The good news is that if they are wrong, they'll just stomp their feet, make something up, and act like adolescents. More good news: if they are right, every pollster is wrong, including NBC.
Let's take a look at that poll. First of all, it's not just NBC. The Wall Street Journal was also responsible for the poll and they aren't exactly a bastion of liberalism.The poll is of 971 likely voters more of whom identified as Democrats. This is why the poll is +9 identification in favor of the Democrats. What the Right fails to understand is that they aren't skewing the polls. This is how the people answered the question and, honestly, this is great example of how facts simply bounce off the bubble.
But Mark Murray, Senior Political Editor at NBC, decided to cut the Democratic sample in half just for shits and giggles. Guess what happened? Obama by three...which is the average of all the polls from Ohio and what I think will be right around the margin the president is going to win by on Tuesday. So, dudes on the Right, enough already.
Now as far as that independent claim goes...Newsmax-Zogby shows the president now up 2 points among independents, PPP shows the president up 49-44, ABC-WaPO and Politico show the two candidates tied. These numbers show a trend towards the president.
Overall, Rasmussen still has the race tied at 49-49. I consider that great news for the president.
5 comments:
We'll know who wins soon enough. My own preference is that people get in the habit of lying to pollsters as often as possible to make polling a nearly useless tool for predicting elections. :)
Well, I'm not sure about the lying part but you have to wonder what kind of a person is part of the 10 percent that actually responds to polls. I had someone call me the other day from a national polling outfit and ask me who I was voting for and how I identified, Republican or Democrat. It was pure luck that I happened to be home with all the usual activities that go on our house between kids sports and school stuff. I think most younger people or younger parents aren't around and more older people are which accounts for a heavier weight towards Romney.
Because M still loves the GM bailout... this.
To understand why, it is necessary to examine GM and Chrysler's behavior in the weeks and months that preceded their bailouts. Thanks to inept management and a rapacious union, GM and Chrysler had been shedding market share and jobs for decades before the credit crunch of 2008 brought the global economy to its knees. Despite rocky shores and rough waters, the managements of GM and Chrysler and their United Auto Workers partners never imagined they would have to pay the true cost of their failure to compete.
The Obama action made sure that the UAW did not have to face the music for their part - and substantially sheltered management as well - at the cost of creditors and consumers.
And a nice take-down of Krugnuts being wrong.
The Redskins lost at home. That's the most accurate poll since that cow that crapped on the winning candidate's photo.
I'll just be glad when this is over, and the 8% approval rating congressmen can all go back to work. (Minus a very few, of course.)
Americans deserve the government they have.
I mentioned the Redskins thing, but then the WS was won by the Natl League - which favors the incumbent. So my friend suggested we consult with Paul the octupus.
Post a Comment