The Birds

Paul Ryan to Donald Trump: Nope

Paul Ryan is just not ready to back Donald Trump. Hilarious. I can't remember a time when a Speaker of the House immediately came out against the nominee in their own party. Does anyone out there think the GOP is in any way stable right now?

Wow.

Rough Justice for the Alberta Tar Sands

While Donald Trump is still claiming that global warming is a hoax, Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada is being evacuated due to a massive forest fire:

Tens of thousands of people have fled north and south.

Fuelled by soaring temperatures that hit 32 C and tinder-dry forest, the fire broached the city limits and by 6:20 p.m. a mandatory evacuation order was issued for the entire city.

“Today has been a devastating day. We have had explosive fire conditions on the landscape brought on by extremely high temperatures” and low relative humidity, Bernie Schmitte, wildfire manager at Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, said Tuesday night during a news conference.

“The fire is still out of control,” Schmitte said. “We have been challenged on many fronts as the fire came through the community. It has entered the community and it has gone through the community.”

Officials have accounted for about 53,000 people, including 17,000 people north of the city, 8,000 in Anzac, 9,000 in Lac La Biche, and 18,000 in Edmonton. Fort McMurray has population of 83,000. “This is not an exact science,” one official said when asked about the discrepancy.

Note the "32 C" temperature reading: that's 90 degrees Fahrenheit, on May 4th, in Alberta, Canada, which is really far north, at 57 degrees latitude. It's just another indication that global warming is really happening, and burning fossil fuels -- like those extracted from the tar sands right there in Alberta -- is causing the northern latitudes to heat up very quickly.

There's a sort of rough justice here: the oil extracted from the tar sands is some of the dirtiest there is (it's the crap they wanted to pipe into the US through the Keystone XL pipeline). The area has been hammered economically in recent months because of the low price of oil.

If you're superstitious or religious, you might be inclined to blame this on an angry mother earth, karma, or divine retribution. In reality, it's simple, straightforward and very predictable atmospheric physics.

Like the climate refugees being forced out of their homes in Louisiana due to rising sea levels, the people Fort McMurray are losing their homes to our insatiable thirst for oil.

The Fallout From Indiana

With Donald Trump's resounding victory in yesterday's Indiana primary, the general election has officially taken shape. Ted Cruz is out. Kasich has zero chance of getting anywhere even in a contested convention. Ladies and gentlemen...

Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for president.

I can't think of a better example of the GOP today. Donald Trump is angry, hateful, willfully ignorant, adolescent, racist, bigoted, and highly unintelligent. He is the most unqualified candidate in the history of presidential elections and he's been fueled by voters who mirror his completely false perception of reality. Conservatives are getting exactly what they want.

He also represents proof positive of one of my running theories. Conservatives want someone who is massively authoritarian because they loves themselves an aristocratic structure where the non whites know their place. Trump was so popular in the South because he reminds folks of the plantation owner lording over his minions and expecting tribute from the "less-thans."

Even though Bernie Sanders won last night in Indiana, Hillary Clinton will still win the Democratic nomination. So it's going to be Clinton v Trump. I'm looking forward to the slew of polls likely to come out in the next few weeks that show just how much Trump is going to get his ass kicked. Worse for Republicans are the down ticket candidates who now have to run way from Trump if they are in a toss up race.

With Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, the Republicans can wave buh-bye to the Senate.

Will the GOP learn its lesson? I doubt it. They will likely stomp their feet and whine about not nominating a "real" conservative. They'll heap blame on Trump but it's really the voters that are the problem. Their base is so fractured largely due to the Tea Party who seemingly morphed into Trump supporters.

The only issue faced by the Democrats is replicating what will likely be massive turnout in the fall in the off year elections. Why can't Democrats vote in the years that matter? This is why the GOP has taken over state house and local governments. When 35-40 percent of voters turnout in the midterms, that means only old, white people are voting. Translation: GOP victories.

In advance of what will surely be ear to ear smiles from fresh polls, here, once again, is my map for the fall election.




And I think I'm being generous to Trump!

Lucifer in the Flesh

How Overt Racism Can Be A Good Thing

Jeneee Desmond-Harris has a great piece up over at the times on how the overt racism of Trump supporters is actually a good thing. She begins by relating how discussions of race invariably begin.

Last March, I reported on the Department of Justice’s findings that the police and municipal courts in Ferguson, Mo., had consistently violated the constitutional rights of the city’s black residents. The article included a summary of the abuse of power investigators uncovered, as well as the content of public officials’ emails. (One example: a photo of a bare-chested group of dancing women, apparently in Africa, captioned “Michelle Obama’s High School Reunion.”) 

Simply for presenting the investigation’s findings and the cops’ and court officials’ revealing words, I received a barrage of angry messages asking why I had to “make everything about race.”

Ah, yes...classic...but this brings up a great point.

One thing has been made very clear to me: Many people resent being confronted with information about how racism still shapes — and sometimes, ruins — life in this country.

They resent it because they don't want to take the responsibility for it...just like teenagers.

After a great summation of the Trump rallies over the last few months, we get to this. Mr. Trump and his supporters serve another function, too: They expose the falsehood of the seductive myth that with time and increased diversity, racism will inevitably evaporate.

It won't. It's an ongoing challenge. And this is why the overt racism of Trump and his supporters is a good thing. It's illustrating the folly of easy fixes and adolescent denial.

The Not So Known Reason Why Trump Will Be Decimated

Hillary Clinton is pivoting to the general election and solidifying her operations in battleground states. It make sense because she is the likely nominee. But why isn't Donald Trump doing this? It has some folks perplexed.

"The sooner you can get up and running the better," said Dan Pfeiffer, who advised President Barack Obama. "On the Republican side, Trump has not built anything resembling the sort of field operation it takes to win."

If he doesn't have an y field operation in battleground states, he's going to lose even more badly than I thought. Meanwhile, Clinton campaign employees are heading to battleground states across the country, among them Ohio, Florida and Colorado. Democrats are also eyeing the possibility of making a run at traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, calculating that Trump's penchant for controversy could put minority and female voters in play.

Georgia is in play? Wow.

Get Ready For An Ass Kicking

Insiders: Clinton would crush Trump in November

From the Republican insiders...

“There is positively no way for Trump to win in Pennsylvania,” said a Republican from that state. 

“Trump cannot and will not carry Ohio,” a Republican from that state insisted. “He will do well in Appalachia and in the Mahoning Valley but he will get killed in the rest of the state. The danger for the GOP is losing Rob Portman which is a very real possibility under this match-up.” 

Added a Florida Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, “Trump is grinding the GOP to a stub. He couldn't find enough xenophobic, angry white Floridians to beat Hillary in Florida if he tried.” 

Wow. Here's my map of what it will all look like.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

And I'm actually being generous to Trump because he's polling behind her in Utah for fuck's sake!

The GOP is finally getting exactly what they deserve. When you spend the better part of two decades training their constituents to believe wacky, ideological nonsense (see also: lies), you get Donald Trump as your front runner.

Ah, The Bubble...

Pentagon rips Benghazi Committee over 'speculation'  

The Pentagon is pushing back against the House Benghazi Committee, saying its repeated requests for documents and interviews are straining the department's resources — and, to make matters worse, many of the queries are speculative or hypothetical.

Hedger also complained that Defense Department interviewees “have been asked repeatedly to speculate or engage in discussing on the record hypotheticals.”

Sort of like a right wing blog commenting section, maybe? Man, those people live in their own fucking reality.

And now they are purposefully undermining the resources of our military.

Up Close with a Member of the Gun Cult

My daughter has been taking her driver's ed classes so she can get her permit and then (sigh, gasp) be a legal driver in the state of Minnesota. She's been going to the local driver's ed school a few short blocks from our house.

After the first class, she came home to inform us that the teacher, who also owns the school, took every opportunity he had to tell the class how he was very conservative, owned many guns, and didn't like people who weren't white. My wife and I decided long ago that our children should be exposed to people like this as often as possible so it will help them later in life. Sheltering is invariably a bad thing as the world can be a pretty awful place and young people need to know how to deal with folks like this.

But last night, she came home and told us that the instructor was bragging about their conceal carry permit. When another student said that she thought all guns should be outlawed, the instructor pulled out a knife and said, "Here's a way you can threaten someone without a gun." He then proceeded to point it at her.

Needless to say, I notified the police and hopefully this asshat will be put in his place. What is it exactly about the Gun Cult that they feel the need to threaten people all the time? Are they that insecure about life?

It's tempting to take this as just an isolated incident but this example is the direct result of a culture that cock rides guns. People like this jag off are part of the every growing pile off fallout in a society where guns are worshiped as objects of empowerment.

It has to stop.

The Glory of the Free Market

Trump V Clinton

I think we have to say that it's likely to be Trump v Clinton at this point. The GOP has to be shitting themselves.

Charles Koch: Clinton Might Make Better President

In a sign that this election has really gone off the rails, Charles Koch recently said that Hillary Clinton might make a better president than the eventual GOP nominee. It makes sense if you think about it. None of the current GOP candidates meet the Koch standard. Kasich is too liberal. Trump is too aristocratic and authoritarian. Ted Cruz is giant asshole.

The Hilz response?

Not interested in endorsements from people who deny climate science and try to make it harder for people to vote. https://t.co/TWN4zYhMBh

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) April 24, 2016

Playing A Role?

Is Donald Trump playing a role? Multiple reports suggest that he is, according to his campaign manager Paul Manafort. As soon as the general election begins, he will shift to more palatable stances to attract moderate voters. Take a listen


I wonder how all this will work out...y'know, the whole Mexicans as rapists, banning Muslims thing:)

Heart=Broken

All of Minnesota is mourning our state treasure...

Turning the Lens on the Gun Culture

I have noticed a trend occurring of late that I find most heartening. Researchers are turning their lens towards gun violence and gun culture. There are many reasons why they are doing this but the recent news that UT researcher Haril Shapira is going to examine gun culture and the future of American democracy is extremely interesting.

Shapira’s work investigates what drives people to join gun-owning communities and what this means for democracy. The communities, Shapira observes, not only shape and transform individuals drawn to gun culture but also society at large. 

“We are seeing individuals taking on the roles of government when it comes to self-defense and issues of enforcement of the law,” Shapira said. “What might this mean for democracy and democratic institutions? What does an armed society hold for the future of America’s democracy?”

Indeed.

I'm not sure what his research questions will be or even what form his research will take but I'm hoping he gets into the issue of empowerment. I've been asking friends of mine who are gun owners why exactly they own them and one thing I've noticed about nearly all of them is they have something in their lives that makes them feel insecure and weak. Whether they have some sort of long term health issue or have been bullied in their lives, having a gun makes them feel better.

I can't wait for Professor Shapira's book to be released.

UnitedHealth Can't Compete

Obamacare is back in the news today, after UnitedHealth Group announced that it's getting out of insurance exchanges in many states.

Opponents of the health care exchange will point to this as a major failure. However, this isn't a failure of Obamacare, it's a failure of UnitedHealth's business model.

UnitedHealth is not a health care provider. It's a useless, money-sucking middleman. It grew to be the country's biggest health insurance provider with a very inefficient business model. This consists of insurance company A taking money from employer B to pay health care provider C to provide health care for employee D who works for employer B.

This is inherently inefficient. There are four parties involved in a transaction that should be conducted solely between health care provider C and patient D. Every time you add another party to a transaction the costs go up: everyone has to take their cut.

UnitedHealth doesn't make money by providing health care, it makes money by denying it. They are gambling that they'll be able to charge corporations for more health care than their employees will use.

They can do this because their customer is the employer, and not the employee actually receiving the health care. That means they can provide a much lower level of service than they can for customers who directly pay for their health care. They do this by denying coverage.

That's how health insurance companies make money: they insure healthy people, then they make using health care a hassle, hoping that patients will just cave when coverage is denied and pay for it themselves, or not bother to see the doctor at all.

UnitedHealth is a very profitable company, but it is a leech on the system. It can only be profitable by charging people for health care they don't use. Since they do not provide health care, they are incapable of effecting changes in the system itself to make it more efficient: all they can do is demand providers charge less, but since providers have a monopoly on health care, middlemen insurance companies have no real leverage.

But UnitedHealth has found that its business model can't stand up to competition on the exchanges. They're too inefficient. Companies that actually provide health care -- not the middlemen -- are the only ones that can really bring down the price of health care.

The American model for health care makes no sense. Health care is as essential to modern American life as food, clothing and shelter. Employers don't feed, or clothe or house us. Why should they pay for our health care?

Every American should pay for their own health care and employers should get out of the health insurance business altogether. They should give their employees raises equal to what they spend on health care.

This would level the playing field for American companies, who have to compete with foreign companies who aren't saddled with that burden. The same thing goes for cities, counties, states and the federal government.

The incentives in the health care system are completely skewed. Until the people who actually use it are the ones paying for it, and the people making money from it are the ones who provide it, the cost cost of health care in America will continue to spiral out of control.

Calling His Shot

Empire State Predictions

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will win their respective primaries today but the question is by how much.

For the Republicans, 95 are at stake. I think Trump will win at least 50 of them with Kasich getting around 30 and Cruz 15. Cruz didn't do himself any favors with his "New York values" comment. For the Democrats, 247 are at stake and I think Hillary will get just over half of them plus most of the superdelegates. Bernie will come away with a pretty good share of the delegates even though he will lose.

April Come She Will

April is usually a time of hope as Spring is about to arrive. People around the country are welcoming the warmer weather and the chance to sit outside in shirt sleeves watching a baseball game. But for many teachers, it's a really crappy time of the year as school districts decide who to cut and who to displace.

Of course, it's not entirely the district's fault. Teachers's unions make contracts that protect the most senior of staff regardless of how good or bad their performance. The reasoning behind this is solid given market economics. If the districts were allowed to cut whomever they wanted, all of the higher salaried staff would go every ten years or so to save money. Newer and inexperienced staff would flood the schools all in the name of penny pinching. Quality of education would severely drop as these new staff members would be challenged with a whole host of issues like classroom management, lesson planning, and relationship building.

Yet the issue of poor performance by veteran teachers persists and there needs to be significant changes to the way they are evaluated. First, they should not be evaluated as they are now by their fellow teachers who take a couple of years off to do Q-Comp (teacher observations). Outside and unbiased evaluators should be hired by each district to carry out these observations. Second, poor performers should not be passed along simply because they are senior. There should be significant consequences if they are not doing their jobs effectively including termination. Third, teachers that have been in the game for twenty years should shift out of the classroom and into a mentoring role for new teachers. With massive numbers retiring in the next ten years due to the baby boomer generation heading off to pasture, there will be a teacher shortage in this country. Many states, like Hawaii for example, are already experiencing this. New teachers need the guidance of their elders.

Take it from someone who has sadly experienced this too many times. Experience doesn't always mean quality.  This does not mean that we should jump on the right wing douche bag bandwagon and vilify all unions for ever and ever amen. But we do have to change the way the system currently works because it protects too many poor quality teachers.