The Washington Post's recent 50 state poll is a veritable treasure trove for political junkies like me. The first thing that jumps out at me is how the electoral map has shifted quite a bit based on the candidates themselves. The race is much tighter in rust belt states which is good news for Trump. Yet Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error in places like Texas, Mississippi, Georgia and Arizona. What does all this mean?
Well, this was a poll based on 74,000 REGISTERED voters, not likely voters. This makes a huge difference and probably means that Trump is safe in Texas and Mississippi for example. Conversely, this means that Hillary Clinton is safe in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well. This poll does, however, show that Hillary Clinton does have a substantial lead over Donald Trump and is basically a couple of states away from 270. Hillary has 244 and Donald has 126 in the solid and leaning category. That's pretty bad.
Here's the video that breaks it all down.
Tuesday, September 06, 2016
Monday, September 05, 2016
The Biggest Challenge For Hillary Clinton
With the final stretch of the 2016 Election about to begin tomorrow, Hillary Clinton's biggest challenge is convincing the American public that she is more trustworthy than her image is currently showing. Today's piece in the Times is most illustrative of this.
The first debate presents her with a moment to make amends, as best she can, for all of this and show the country that she has the moralistic fortitude to lead this country. Donald Trump is going to attempt to make this his moment as well and I think he may surprise some people. He may very well chuck all the personal attacks, which is what Hillary and her people are preparing for, and merely talk about how great he is and what he will do to help people less fortunate than himself. There may even be a touch of humility in some stuff he says. His "unpredictability" could be being more normal. Of course, I could be wrong about all of this and he will simply go on with his anger, hate and fear.
Regardless, she needs to answer the email question the way she did when she was interviewed recently by the Morning Joe team.
"Every time I attempt to explain my email server, I end up sounding like I am making excuses. So, no excuses. I made a mistake and I was careless. I apologize."
She could add on to this by saying the following.
"I make no excuses and have learned that, as president, I will have to be more careful to handle sensitive, government material, classified or not. And I promise you that I will."
When she is asked about her foundation, her response should be as follows.
"Though our foundation helps many people around the world, myself and my family can help many more if I become president. So, the foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative will be folded into the Gates Foundation and they can continue on with our work. All documents relating to the foundation and my meetings as Secretary of State will be made public, if they haven't already, for anyone to pour over."
Throughout the entire debate, she should also explain how she learned from her mistakes and how that reflection made her a stronger and more solid person. After all, Trump isn't going to admit any of this so the contrast will be clear between the two candidates. People tend to identify more with leaders who are like them.
Everyone makes mistakes. If Hillary shows us that she is like the rest of us, she eliminates the perception that she is above common folk and that talking point evaporates.
“What am I supposed to do if I don’t like him and I don’t trust her?” a millennial black woman in Ohio asked. “Choose between being stabbed and being shot? No way!”
“She was part of the whole problem that started sending blacks to jail,” a young black man, also from Ohio, observed about Mrs. Clinton.
“He’s a racist, and she is a liar, so really what’s the difference in choosing both or choosing neither?” another young black woman from Ohio said.
And this is from black millenials, a group she will likely carry over Donald Trump. Not good at all. So what does she need to do?The first debate presents her with a moment to make amends, as best she can, for all of this and show the country that she has the moralistic fortitude to lead this country. Donald Trump is going to attempt to make this his moment as well and I think he may surprise some people. He may very well chuck all the personal attacks, which is what Hillary and her people are preparing for, and merely talk about how great he is and what he will do to help people less fortunate than himself. There may even be a touch of humility in some stuff he says. His "unpredictability" could be being more normal. Of course, I could be wrong about all of this and he will simply go on with his anger, hate and fear.
Regardless, she needs to answer the email question the way she did when she was interviewed recently by the Morning Joe team.
"Every time I attempt to explain my email server, I end up sounding like I am making excuses. So, no excuses. I made a mistake and I was careless. I apologize."
She could add on to this by saying the following.
"I make no excuses and have learned that, as president, I will have to be more careful to handle sensitive, government material, classified or not. And I promise you that I will."
When she is asked about her foundation, her response should be as follows.
"Though our foundation helps many people around the world, myself and my family can help many more if I become president. So, the foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative will be folded into the Gates Foundation and they can continue on with our work. All documents relating to the foundation and my meetings as Secretary of State will be made public, if they haven't already, for anyone to pour over."
Throughout the entire debate, she should also explain how she learned from her mistakes and how that reflection made her a stronger and more solid person. After all, Trump isn't going to admit any of this so the contrast will be clear between the two candidates. People tend to identify more with leaders who are like them.
Everyone makes mistakes. If Hillary shows us that she is like the rest of us, she eliminates the perception that she is above common folk and that talking point evaporates.
Sunday, September 04, 2016
Saturday, September 03, 2016
Latest Election Map
Here's my latest map based on the polls and various resources.
As we can see, Hillary has fallen off a bit in terms of her monumental lead. Now we have more of a modest lead with Iowa trending towards Trump. North Carolina has move more back to Trump as well. In many ways, North Carolina represents the struggle to shift out of the chains of the past and into the progression towards the future. It's almost there, just not quite yet.
Click the map to create your own at As we can see, Hillary has fallen off a bit in terms of her monumental lead. Now we have more of a modest lead with Iowa trending towards Trump. North Carolina has move more back to Trump as well. In many ways, North Carolina represents the struggle to shift out of the chains of the past and into the progression towards the future. It's almost there, just not quite yet.
Friday, September 02, 2016
Good Words
From First Read: “More than two months before Election Day, it’s already happening: Downballot Republicans and top GOP leaders are dumping Trump. There was no public memo or major announcement in August — just actions…”
“But here’s the bad news: After Labor Day, almost every single Democrat in a House and Senate race will be tying their GOP opponent to Trump. So up and down the ticket, hundreds of millions of dollars in Democratic messaging will be ‘Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.’ And when there’s been that kind of disparity in messaging when one party is talking about one thing and the opposition is talking about everything else — see 2006 and 2008 (‘Bush, Bush, Bush’) or 2010 and 2014 (‘Obama, Obama, Obama’) — there’s been a wave. November is going to go one of two ways. One, this kind of GOP separation from Trump is going to work like we saw in 1996. Or two, the bottom is going to fall out for the Republican Party.”
I'm thinking it's going to be the latter...:)
“But here’s the bad news: After Labor Day, almost every single Democrat in a House and Senate race will be tying their GOP opponent to Trump. So up and down the ticket, hundreds of millions of dollars in Democratic messaging will be ‘Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.’ And when there’s been that kind of disparity in messaging when one party is talking about one thing and the opposition is talking about everything else — see 2006 and 2008 (‘Bush, Bush, Bush’) or 2010 and 2014 (‘Obama, Obama, Obama’) — there’s been a wave. November is going to go one of two ways. One, this kind of GOP separation from Trump is going to work like we saw in 1996. Or two, the bottom is going to fall out for the Republican Party.”
I'm thinking it's going to be the latter...:)
Thursday, September 01, 2016
Trump's Position on Immigration
If someone can explain to me Donald Trump's position on immigration, I'd be grateful. Oh wait, Steve Sack just did...
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Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Debate Prep?
The Times has a very interesting article up about how the respective Trump and Clinton camps are preparing for the first debate. It looks like the Donald is going to wing it. Can't wait!
This was my favorite bit from the piece.
“Trump has severe attention problems and simply cannot take in complex information — he will be unable to practice for these debates,” said Mr. Schwartz, who was the subject of a New Yorker profile last month that portrayed Mr. Trump as a charlatan. “Trump will bring nothing but his bluster to the debates. He’ll use sixth-grade language, he will repeat himself many times, he won’t complete sentences, and he won’t say anything of substance.”
All of the words I've bolded perfectly describe pretty much every right wing blog and right wing blog commenter out there. He's definitely their guy!!
This was my favorite bit from the piece.
“Trump has severe attention problems and simply cannot take in complex information — he will be unable to practice for these debates,” said Mr. Schwartz, who was the subject of a New Yorker profile last month that portrayed Mr. Trump as a charlatan. “Trump will bring nothing but his bluster to the debates. He’ll use sixth-grade language, he will repeat himself many times, he won’t complete sentences, and he won’t say anything of substance.”
All of the words I've bolded perfectly describe pretty much every right wing blog and right wing blog commenter out there. He's definitely their guy!!
The Colin Kerfuffle
I don't get the outrage over Colin Kaepernick's refusal to stand during the National Anthem. This is his right and his view is justified. This isn't Game of Thrones or Germany in the 1930s. We don't bend the knee to the flag or our nation. They serve us and are supposed to represent equality. Clearly, they still don't.
I'm further perplexed by Donald Trump's attack on Kaepernick.Hasn't Trump been going on and on about how awful our country is... how awful it is for black people? It seems to me that they are essentially saying the same thing. At least Kaepernick is taking a principled stand and putting himself at considerable risk.
Kaepernick is using his celebrity status to take a stand on an issue that is still a deep wound in our country's soul. We are not doing a good job of addressing the fallout from slavery...even in the year 2016. I hope he is the first of many to let his voice, or silence in this case, be heard.
I'm further perplexed by Donald Trump's attack on Kaepernick.Hasn't Trump been going on and on about how awful our country is... how awful it is for black people? It seems to me that they are essentially saying the same thing. At least Kaepernick is taking a principled stand and putting himself at considerable risk.
Kaepernick is using his celebrity status to take a stand on an issue that is still a deep wound in our country's soul. We are not doing a good job of addressing the fallout from slavery...even in the year 2016. I hope he is the first of many to let his voice, or silence in this case, be heard.
Monday, August 29, 2016
Sunday, August 28, 2016
Referendum on Right Wing Bloggers
Now that Stephen Bannon has taken the helm of the Trump campaign, we can officially have a national referendum on what America thinks about right wing bloggers. Many of my posts from the last few months during this election have shown how the theme of the Trump campaign is most reminiscent of the comments sections of right wing blogs. But with the Brietbart chief running the tiller, it's official. Let's take a look at some of their best headlines, shall we?
Hmm...seems like they have a little hostility towards women. Probs because they and their readers look like this...
It's going to be pure joy watching them get their asses handed to them...by a woman!!!
It's going to be pure joy watching them get their asses handed to them...by a woman!!!
Saturday, August 27, 2016
Climate Cognitive Dissonance
As Chris Mooney has pointed out many, many times, nothing will likely get through.
On the off chance that it might, here's that link again for those of you that have requested the handy list of denier arguments and how to bury them with the peer reviewed science.
Friday, August 26, 2016
Thursday, August 25, 2016
The "Final Stand" of the Angry Old White Man
There's a big myth out there that Donald Trump has galvanized a whole mess of new conservative voters that will put him over the top come November 8th. David Wasserman over at 538 breaks down why this doesn't really matter and is, in fact, a myth.
There’s no doubt Trump compelled hundreds of thousands of conservative voters to switch their registrations to Republican to vote for him in closed primaries, accelerating these voters’ exodus from formal Democratic affiliation. But do they constitute a surge of new November voters? Not so much. It’s likely that most of these party switchers were already voting Republican.
He then follows this assertion with quite a bit of data. Check it out!
There’s no doubt Trump compelled hundreds of thousands of conservative voters to switch their registrations to Republican to vote for him in closed primaries, accelerating these voters’ exodus from formal Democratic affiliation. But do they constitute a surge of new November voters? Not so much. It’s likely that most of these party switchers were already voting Republican.
He then follows this assertion with quite a bit of data. Check it out!
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Why Do They Support Donald Trump?
Answered here.
Why They Support Trump:
Ability to translate the violent dissonance in their heads into cogent, plain-stated hate
Why They Support Trump:
Ability to translate the violent dissonance in their heads into cogent, plain-stated hate
Monday, August 22, 2016
Ya Think?
The mea culpas continue...
Sykes’ many arguments with listeners over Donald Trump’s serial outrages have exposed in much of his audience a vein of thinking—racist, anti-constitutional, maybe even fascistic—that has shaken Sykes. It has left him questioning whether he and his colleagues in the conservative media played a role in paving the way for Trump’s surprising and unprecedented rise.
Ya think? Sheesh...
Sykes’ many arguments with listeners over Donald Trump’s serial outrages have exposed in much of his audience a vein of thinking—racist, anti-constitutional, maybe even fascistic—that has shaken Sykes. It has left him questioning whether he and his colleagues in the conservative media played a role in paving the way for Trump’s surprising and unprecedented rise.
Ya think? Sheesh...
Sunday, August 21, 2016
Trump Supporter Attacks Interracial Couple Kissing in Public
From the Washington Post:
Daniel Rowe was apparently enraged at the sight of a black man and a white woman kissing on the streets of Olympia, Wash., Tuesday night. But police say he hid his violent intent behind a stony face until he was close enough to strike. . . .
Rowe, 32, walked up to the couple and, without warning, yelled a racial slur and lunged with his knife, police say. The blade grazed the woman and went into the man’s hip, according to a news release from Olympia police. . . .
After the attack, Rowe ran off as stunned onlookers dialed 911. The 47-year-old male victim, not realizing how badly he was injured, chased Rowe and “tripped him up,” said Lt. Paul Lower, a police department spokesman. Rowe hit his head on the ground and was knocked unconscious.
No one involved had life-threatening injuries, but police said Rowe’s behavior grew stranger as officers tried to wrestle him into the back of a patrol car.Trump's been egging these guys on for a year now. Is it any surprise they're starting to take action?
“He tells them, ‘Yeah, I stabbed them. I’m a white supremacist,'” Lower said. “He begins talking about Donald Trump rallies and attacking people at the Black Lives Matter protest.”
According to court documents obtained by the Olympian, Rowe, who was unconscious when police encountered him, had tattoos that read “skinhead,” “white power” and “hooligan.” One tattoo showed the Confederate flag.
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