Contributors

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Election Day

Today is election day. First of all, I want to say...GO VOTE. People that bitch about the state of things affected by politics (which is mostly everything) and don't vote are full of crap. It's like complaining about your sex life and refusing to engage in coitus. It makes no sense.

So what are my predictions for today?

The Senate will hold for the Democrats at 53-47. Given the unpredictability of Alaska right now, it could very well be 54-46 with Scott McAdams pulling out a victory. I'll stick with 53, though, as we could see some surprises.

The Democrats will lose a total of 40 seats in the House but pick up another 5 from some of the heavily Democratic districts held by Republicans. That puts the number at 220 D and 215 R. In all honesty, this is probably the worst outcome.

What I would like to see, based on all that has gone on since the last time I made a prediction, would be for the Republicans to net around 42 seats...putting them at 220 and the Dems at 215...give or take a few. When all the hysterical laughter has died down about "beating" Pelosi (which actually won't be true as she will probably be re-elected as well to her district) and the Right has enjoyed their main goal in life (winning the argument or, in this case, the vote), they are going to have to govern...govern with a dozen or more Tea Partiers who will now be in charge of committees. That means that people like Michelle Bachmann are going to be given the spotlight and, lordy oh lordy, I want them in that spotlight.

The American people want things yesterday. Generally speaking we are impatient little children who think that it only takes 18 months to fix giant catastrophes. Even ones that have taken 30 years to make. In the next couple of years, people are going to start to see the benefits of the work of the 111th Congress and President Obama. When they start to "feel it," as Velma Frank put it so eloquently to the president a few weeks ago, they need to see the contrast of Michelle Bachmann, John Boehner and the rest of the lapdogs to corporate money screaming about socialism. Finally, much of what I say on here will make sense.

"But wait," the electorate will ask, "these new programs work and actually help out country. Why are they foaming at the mouth?" For the most part, the American people need to see that contrast otherwise it won't make any sense to them. With a five vote majority in Congress for the Dems, they will never see it and the chances of Obama being a one term president rise significantly. If the 5 vote majority is the other way, it works out better. The GOP is essentially just as limp but still in charge which means the blame (and the increased attention) will go to them.

There is no doubt in my mind that the 111th Congress will be remembered as one that told the truth and took action when it wasn't politically advantageous to do so. Yeah, they were spineless about a few things but they could've been worse. They did what was best for the country regardless of their political lives. And now they might lose because of it. I think, in many ways, I have been way too critical of them.

At least they aren't our possible new Speaker who sends out a laughable "pledge" to America that doesn't offer anything that the movement they co-opted to stay alive actually wants in the way of spending cuts for entitlements. I think it's going to be quite enjoyable, should he win, to watch him try to placate the loud yet small group of mouth foamers that want to abolish Social Security on one hand and keep his base of frightened old people on the other. Pelosi might have her problems but she wasn't a gutless turd like Boehner is going to be.

If the GOP does end up winning small majority in the House (and I sincerely hope they do), moderates, liberals, progressives, and all the rest of us that are to the left of the one yard line on the football field need to take heart. I know it will be tough to see the adolescent glee at winning which they will take as being proved "right." Shining examples of this will be seen in comments should a GOP victory come to pass.

Like all bullies though, it doesn't take much to see the insecurity lurking beneath the surface. They know that the history of our country is filled with successful and very popular social FEDERAL programs as well as government regulation. They don't like that at all. An example of this distaste can be seen in the comments thread with my socialism pledge. None of them have taken it. Or refused to take it. What does that tell you?

Regardless of what happens today, they will still be afraid. Very afraid.

And that explains quite a lot.


12 comments:

Haplo9 said...

>They know that the history of our country is filled with successful and very popular social FEDERAL programs as well as government regulation.

Does this mean you are going to do your run and hide thing from the Social Security thread?

Dr. Smith said...

I think I'm going to start treating you people now that I have found this blog. See if you can follow me here, Haplo9.

1. He mentioned it in this post.
2. By mentioning it, that means he wants to discuss it.
3. Wanting to discuss it means not running it and hiding it.

Had he not mentioned it, your statement would be more applicable.

Haplo9 said...

(I should clarify.) Juris and I made it very clear just how Social Security works in that thread. You'll no doubt go tell us how we are wrong, correct?

As to the election:

>I know it will be tough to see the adolescent glee at winning which they will take as being proved "right."


Er, ok. The only thing that will make me "right" about today is in my predicting that Republicans do well. It's an intesting formulation of words though - does winning an election make one "right"? In other words, does having a majority of people agree with you on something make you "right"?

>None of them have taken it. Or refused to take it.

Heh. You actually sneer about "adolescents" and then try to treat your "pledge" as something more than a juvenile attempt at playing gotcha. There is a very good reason you were referred to as "boy" over on TSM. And it isn't your looks.

As to the election outcome, I'm hoping for some good old gridlock. The Bush years have convinced me that an all R government can't be trusted - they'll simply try to pad their pockets. The Obama years have convinced me that an all D government *really* can't be trusted. Not only will they try to pad their pockets but they slather on a heaping dose of economic illiteracy on top of that. Strangely enough, the same kind of illiteracy displayed by Mark. Weird, that.

Haplo9 said...

>I think I'm going to start treating you people

"you people"? Tsk tsk Dr. Smith. Surely a Doctor wouldn't want to engage in rhetoric that dehumanizes his political opponents, would he?

last in line said...

In the SS discussion, Mark said "I'm talking about past and present definable facts". Let me toss this in - anyone familiar with the Supreme Court case Fleming v. Nector from the year 1960? In that case, the court ruled that those who have contributed to social security have no contractual right to the money they've contributed.

That sounds charming.

On to todays post...

So, I have to wait 2 years for the stuff Mark says on here to start making sense?

"Probably the worst outcome"? For who? For the country? Or for those who are really looking to blame Boehner and Bachmann for things that go wrong in the country? The answer to that one is glaringly obvious.

So the problem is not that the programs aren't working, it's that the people don't see the contrast between left and right well enough? If the programs worked, they would speak for themselves. I know, I know, the GOP is to blame for the failure of the government it hasn't been in charge of and folks on here reeeeeeally need someone to blame. They need Bachmann on that wall.

"The GOP is...in charge which means the blame will go to them."

That's interesting also. I hope your writings from Jan 2007 - Jan 2009 (when Dems were in charge of the house) stay consistent with your upcoming criticisms on here should the GOP take the house....lots of archives on here.

last in line said...

Predictions...

GOP won't do as well in the Senate elections but they will pick up some seats.

Boxer will win in California - it's a blue state after all.

Murray will win in Washington state. It's a blue state also and most votes are mailed in. If Rossi is only up 1 in the polls, that's well within the margin of Acorn.

I'd be surprised if Angle wins in Nevada. She's within the margin of Acorn too.

Manchin will win in WV, mainly because he has become just as conservative as his opponent.

Colorado race is within the margin of Acorn too.

In the house, I'll go out on a limb and say the GOP will pick up 50 seats. The old saying "All politics is local" comes to mind...hence I don't think folks voting in Florida or Missouri are listening to Michelle Bachmann as much as the lefties on this blog are. It's easy to focus on the dimwits in the other party.

Conservative Republicans will replace conservative Democrats across the south.

The only thing a narrow GOP majority does for you lefties is give you someone to blame - your "solutions" will now hit a roadblock, but I see those aren't as important as "having the other side in the spotlight".

Anonymous said...

"Finally, much of what I say on here will make sense."

So, you are saying that it hasn't made any sense up to this point?

I admire your self-examination and honesty.

last in line said...

...and Dayton will (unfortunately) be the governor of MN.

juris imprudent said...

liberals, progressives, and all the rest of us that are to the left

of the vast majority of Americans.

You are getting spanked because you assumed you were speaking for them. You aren't anymore than I am. But I doubt I, or Dr. Smith, can cure you of that delusion.

juris imprudent said...

Shining examples of this will be seen in comments should a GOP victory come to pass.

Never mind the links I've been posting saying this IS NOT a resurgence of the Republicans - but a rejection of Democratic liberalism.

If the Republicans are smart, and I seriously doubt that to be the case, they will know they are on a very short leash.

You'd rather have a pissing contest about TEAM RED vs. TEAM BLUE. Way to miss the fucking point.

juris imprudent said...

Let me be the one to say that CA voters really are dopes - yes to Boxer and Brown, no to legal pot.

rld said...

Lots of missing people here today. Very accurate predictions Last, good work.