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Showing posts with label Election 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2012. Show all posts

Monday, October 15, 2012

How Much Longer?

It's things like this that sadly make me realize just how much of a challenge we have with education in this country. How much longer will paranoia, hatred and anger rule the day and make people this irrational?

 

Friday, October 12, 2012

Polls For Friday, October 12th

Today's polls show a very sizable lead for Romney in Florida. Unlike my colleagues on the right, I'm not going to say that these polls are stupid and fat. Of course, these polls are accurate to them and the others (the ones that showed Obama ahead there recently) are not:)

And I still don't get the president's approval rating. Could it be that they approve of the job he is doing but think Romney could do better? If so, what specifically can Romney do better? Where are his details?

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 49, Obama 47Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 46, Obama 46Tie
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 47, Romney 49Romney +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. ObamaARGObama 46, Romney 50Romney +4
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaDenver Post/SurveyUSARomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsRomney 51, Obama 47Romney +4
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaARGRomney 49, Obama 46Romney +3
Michigan: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 52, Romney 45Obama +7
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. BrownRasmussen ReportsBrown 47, Mandel 46Brown +1
Florida Senate - Mack vs. NelsonTBT/Herald/Mason-DixonNelson 47, Mack 42Nelson +5
Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. BaldwinRasmussen ReportsBaldwin 51, Thompson 47Baldwin +4
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseyPhiladelphia InquirerCasey 48, Smith 38Casey +10
New Jersey Senate - Kyrillos vs. MenendezPhiladelphia InquirerMenendez 49, Kyrillos 35Menendez +14
New Hampshire Governor - Lamontagne vs. HassanARGLamontagne 46, Hassan 40Lamontagne +6
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 50, Disapprove 44Approve +6
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 50, Disapprove 49Approve +1

It's A Draw!!

Per the request of the ever venerable last in line, here is a photo of us post debate, which we both thought was a draw.


last has more hair than I do...:(

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Polls For October 11, 2012

Some good news for the president in the polls below which show him still ahead in the swing states. A good debate showing next Tuesday will help cement his lead.

Ohio doesn't seem to be budging much at all and one has to wonder how very few people there are left there to swing the vote Romney's way. His comments about letting Detroit go bankrupt obviously outweigh the president's lackluster performance in the debate last week.

The president's approval ratings in both Gallup and Rasmussen are great news for him and awful news for Mitt Romney. Historically, presidents with approval ratings above 50 percent win reelection.

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 47, Obama 46Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 47, Obama 48Obama +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaMonmouth/SurveyUSA/BraunRomney 47, Obama 46Romney +1
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 48, Romney 47Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaNBC/WSJ/MaristObama 51, Romney 45Obama +6
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingObama 45, Romney 46Romney +1
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaNBC/WSJ/MaristRomney 47, Obama 48Obama +1
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaNBC/WSJ/MaristObama 47, Romney 48Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. ObamaCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacObama 51, Romney 46Obama +5
North Carolina: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsRomney 51, Obama 48Romney +3
Nevada: Romney vs. ObamaSuffolk/KSNVObama 47, Romney 45Obama +2
Wisconsin: Romney vs. ObamaCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacObama 50, Romney 47Obama +3
Michigan: Romney vs. ObamaDetroit NewsObama 49, Romney 42Obama +7
Michigan: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingObama 46, Romney 44Obama +2
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaPhiladelphia InquirerObama 50, Romney 42Obama +8
New Jersey: Romney vs. ObamaPhiladelphia InquirerObama 51, Romney 40Obama +11
California: Romney vs. ObamaSurveyUSAObama 53, Romney 39Obama +14
Massachusetts: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Obama 55, Romney 41Obama +14
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. WarrenRasmussen ReportsWarren 49, Brown 47Warren +2
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. WarrenPPP (D)Warren 50, Brown 44Warren +6
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KaineWeAskAmericaKaine 41, Allen 46Allen +5
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KaineNBC/WSJ/MaristKaine 47, Allen 46Kaine +1
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. BrownNBC/WSJ/MaristBrown 52, Mandel 41Brown +11
Florida Senate - Mack vs. NelsonNBC/WSJ/MaristNelson 52, Mack 39Nelson +13
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. KaineCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacKaine 51, Allen 44Kaine +7
Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. BaldwinCBS/NYT/QuinnipiacBaldwin 48, Thompson 46Baldwin +2
Nevada Senate - Heller vs. BerkleySuffolk/KSNV*Heller 40, Berkley 37Heller +3
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseyRasmussen ReportsCasey 49, Smith 45Casey +4
Michigan Senate - Hoekstra vs. StabenowDetroit NewsStabenow 50, Hoekstra 38Stabenow +12
New Mexico Senate - Wilson vs. HeinrichRasmussen ReportsHeinrich 52, Wilson 39Heinrich +13
California Senate - Emken vs. FeinsteinSurveyUSAFeinstein 54, Emken 35Feinstein +19
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 52, Disapprove 43Approve +9
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 51, Disapprove 48Approve +3
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorableMonmouth/SurveyUSA/BraunFavorable 46, Unfavorable 45Favorable +1
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorableMonmouth/SurveyUSA/BraunFavorable 46, Unfavorable 39Favorable +7

Tonight's VP Debate

I think I may be the only one in punditry land that doesn't think tonight's debate will matter all that much. The only way I see that it will is if Biden really does a poor job or says something stupid. I don't think anything Ryan does (good or bad) will matter.

At the end of the day, people care more about President Obama and Mitt Romney, not their second in command. The national polls have certainly tightened but they were going to do that anyway. Nothing much has changed in the swing states (more on that later today when I put up my daily poll numbers) and we are still basically down to 9 states.

Everyone's eyes are on next Tuesday as the President gets another chance to take on Mitt Romney.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Polls For Wednesday October 10th

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaFOX NewsRomney 46, Obama 45Romney +1
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 48, Obama 48Tie
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 49, Obama 44Romney +5
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 48, Obama 47Romney +1
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaSurveyUSAObama 45, Romney 44Obama +1
Wisconsin: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 51, Romney 49Obama +2
Florida: Romney vs. ObamaUNFRomney 45, Obama 49Obama +4
New Hampshire: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 48, Romney 48Tie
Nevada: Romney vs. ObamaLVRJ/SurveyUSAObama 47, Romney 46Obama +1
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 51, Romney 46Obama +5
New Mexico: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 54, Romney 43Obama +11
Montana: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Romney 52, Obama 41Romney +11
Maine: Romney vs. ObamaPan Atlantic SMSObama 51, Romney 37Obama +14
Rhode Island: Romney vs. ObamaBrown UniversityObama 58, Romney 32Obama +26
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. BrownSurveyUSA*Brown 42, Mandel 38Brown +4
Nevada Senate - Heller vs. BerkleyRasmussen ReportsHeller 48, Berkley 45Heller +3
Montana Senate - Rehberg vs. TesterPPP (D)*Rehberg 43, Tester 45Tester +2
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseySusquehannaCasey 46, Smith 44Casey +2
Maine Senate - Summers vs. Dill vs. KingPan Atlantic SMSKing 50, Summers 24, Dill 12King +26
Rhode Island Senate - Hinckley vs. WhitehouseBrown UniversityWhitehouse 59, Hinckley 30Whitehouse +29
Montana At-Large - Daines vs. GillanPPP (D)Daines 43, Gillan 34Daines +9
Rhode Island 1st District - Doherty vs. CicillineBrown UniversityCicilline 46, Doherty 40Cicilline +6
President Obama Job ApprovalFOX NewsApprove 49, Disapprove 48Approve +1
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 53, Disapprove 42Approve +11
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 49, Disapprove 50Disapprove +1
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorableFOX NewsFavorable 51, Unfavorable 45Favorable +6
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorableFOX NewsFavorable 52, Unfavorable 42Favorable +10

Loads of polls today..

The Florida one is very interesting considering Romney's recent gains there.

I'm not sure why they are polling some of the eastern states...seems like a waste of time to me.

The last two polls (post debate) from Ohio have the president up +4 and +1 so I'm hoping this silences the shrieking from the left.

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Polls For Tuesday, October 9th

General Election: Romney vs. ObamaGallup TrackingRomney 49, Obama 47Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaIBD/TIPP TrackingRomney 47, Obama 45Romney +2
General Election: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen TrackingRomney 48, Obama 48Tie
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaCNN/Opinion ResearchObama 51, Romney 47Obama +4
Ohio: Romney vs. ObamaARGObama 47, Romney 48Romney +1
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. ObamaSienaObama 43, Romney 40Obama +3
Nevada: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 47, Romney 47Tie
Colorado: Romney vs. ObamaARGRomney 50, Obama 46Romney +4
Minnesota: Romney vs. ObamaPPP (D)Obama 53, Romney 43Obama +10
North Carolina: Romney vs. ObamaGravis MarketingRomney 50, Obama 41Romney +9
Connecticut: Romney vs. ObamaRasmussen ReportsObama 51, Romney 45Obama +6
North Dakota: Romney vs. ObamaMason-DixonRomney 54, Obama 40Romney +14
Massachusetts: Romney vs. ObamaWBUR/MassINCObama 52, Romney 36Obama +16
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. WarrenWBUR/MassINCWarren 45, Brown 48Brown +3
North Dakota Senate - Berg vs. HeitkampMason-DixonBerg 47, Heitkamp 47Tie
Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. MurphyRasmussen ReportsMurphy 51, McMahon 46Murphy +5
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. CaseySienaCasey 44, Smith 35Casey +9
Minnesota Senate - Bills vs. KlobucharPPP (D)Klobuchar 57, Bills 31Klobuchar +26
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. DaltonGravis MarketingMcCrory 50, Dalton 33McCrory +17
North Dakota At-Large - Cramer vs. GullesonMason-DixonCramer 49, Gulleson 37Cramer +12
President Obama Job ApprovalGallupApprove 53, Disapprove 42Approve +11
President Obama Job ApprovalRasmussen ReportsApprove 49, Disapprove 50Disapprove +1
Obama: Favorable/UnfavorableABC News/Wash PostFavorable 55, Unfavorable 44Favorable +11
Romney: Favorable/UnfavorableABC News/Wash PostFavorable 47, Unfavorable 51Unfavorable +4

At first glance, this all looks like bad news for the president. Gallup has him down 2 points with Rasmussen having the race exactly tied. He's also lost some ground in North Carolina and Colorado. Remember that Gallup has now switched from "Registered Voters" to "Likely Voters" so now we can see that enthusiasm gap very, very clearly, favoring the Republicans.

But these are nationwide polls and if we look at a very key swing state like Ohio things look just about the same for the president since before the debate. The new Ohio poll from CNN (taken 10/5-10/8) shows the president up 51-47 with the ARG poll showing Romney up 48-47. The CNN poll is likely voters so that is very good news for the president.

And the president's approval rating has actually increased an overall net of 4 points and now stands at 53 percent. His favorables are still in the plus column while Romney's are still in the minus column. These numbers are now well after the debate which means...what, exactly? I guess I don't know for sure but it does mean not as much doom and gloom for the president because the head to head numbers don't fully reflect the jobs data release as much as the approval/favorable numbers.

One other thing to note here is the Senate picture still looks good for the Democrats. The fact that North Dakota is competitive is truly amazing and an excellent testament to being able to win in a deep red state if you are a good candidate like Heidi Heitkamp.