Moby Trump

Good Words

From a question on Quora...

The question isn't to amend or abolish the second amendment, it is to properly apply it.  If the President, Congress and the Courts would focus more fully on what a "well regulated militia" is, I think we'd find compromise.

For example, I would propose:

1. In order to own anything that is not a hunting-purpose long gun (Shotguns without tactical attachments, centerfire/rimfire rifles without tactical attachments) you must be: a) willing to serve in some sort of reserve unit of the Armed Forces or b) some sort of police / sherrif / state trooper auxillary unit
2. In order to serve in this well regulated militia, you must a) complete a series of psychological evaluations and b) complete comprehensive training with firearms and other aspects of your job.
3. This would effectively get you into the VA (or state equivalent systems) regarding mental health.

If you are serving in a militia in good standing (including retired), then you can have whatever guns you wish.

Much like in Australia, you'd have to do some sort gun buyback which would probably go over like a lead balloon.

I'm not sure people have a problem with sensible gun ownership, but instead on whether the mentally unfit / untrained people are using them. 

At least that's my take.

And a great take it is! The Gun Cult chides continually that gun safety advocates have no real plan and or idea what new laws should look like. This is a great example of exactly what it should look like and something I firmly support. I would add that the mental health evaluations be at least three times a year and one hundred hours a year minimum training.

War Zones Are Safe!

What Drives The Gun Cult

I was recently asked to answer a question on Quora about gun rights activists. Here was my response.

There are several reasons why gun rights activists ignore gun control success in other countries and they all revolve around the reasons why they are passionate about their guns in the first place.

First, like any hobby, people love their toys. If there is a chance that they might be taken away, it's only natural that people would get upset. Seeing that the rest of the civilized world functions just fine with stricter gun control translates into the possibility that their toys will be taken away hence the emotion, temper tantrums, and willful ignorance of functional societies.

Second, gun rights activists are generally a very insecure lot who draw empowerment from their guns. It would be interesting to see a peer reviewed study on how many of them were bullied as kids because they've always struck me as having inferiority complexes. Seeing other people "disarmed" in other countries strikes deep to their biggest fear: being powerless. Ironic, for two main reasons. One, owning a gun makes it more likely that they will injure/kill themselves or others as opposed to protecting them against bad guys.

Two, having a few guns against a federal government who has drones/tanks/planes/battleships and thinking that somehow they are a force to be reckoned with is pure fantasy. Speaking of governments...

Third, gun rights activists believe that they are guarding against a possible, future totalitarian government. This is a very powerful belief that overcomes any positive news about countries with successful gun control. They disseminate propaganda that "proves" that countries with stricter gun control are subjugating their people. Here is an example...



Fourth, gun rights activists, like most conservatives, experience cognitive dissonance when confronted with objective reality. When they see how successful gun control has been in reducing violent crime in every other civilized country in the world, their brains react in such a way that the feel like they are under physical attack. Several peer reviewed neurological studies have shown this to be valid and are detailed in the following book.

Amazon.com: The Republican Brain: The Science of Why They Deny Science- and Reality (9781118094518): Chris Mooney: 

Books In many ways, this is the most direct and scientific reason why they ignore the precedent set by other countries. It makes them feel physically uncomfortable and this is due to the previous three reasons mentioned above.

So Long, Jeb

After yesterday's 4th place finish in South Carolina, Jeb Bush suspended his presidential campaign. I suppose no one should really be surprised given the nature of the GOP base these days. Ad in the fact that Bush came off every single day like your awkward dad and it simply spelled doom for him.

I was pretty surprised myself. I thought the boost from his brother and mom would at least put him in third place. This was not the case as Rubio eeked out a 2nd place win with Cruz in third. Kasich and Carson came in 5th and 6th as I originally predicted. Rubio's finish surprised me as well but it does help to have endorsements. It appears that we now have a 3 man race and the hopes of GOP leaders are now pinned on a guy who panics when the spotlight is on him.

So, now the question becomes...is Trump inevitable? The answer is no. Politico's Ben Shcreckinger points out that it's going to be a long ride.

Despite Trump’s polling lead, there are significant obstacles to his running away with the nomination in the coming weeks. With Rubio buoyed by momentum, Nevada’s organizing-heavy caucuses set for Tuesday, and the first half of March weighted toward states where Cruz is poised to finish strongly, there is little space for Trump to translate that lead into a certain nomination in the coming weeks. 

Agreed. Rubio is a very imperfect candidate but he polls better against Hillary Clinton than Trump or Cruz. Speaking of the Hilz, as I predicted, she won the Nevada caucuses yesterday and more or less put Bernie Sanders' bid for the presidency to rest. Bernie will be a significant factor, however, in shaping the 2016 Democratic platform which I think is a very, very good thing.

The Pope V The Donald

Nevada and South Carolina Prognostications

I was all set to predict Bernie Sanders for the Nevada win but some recent polling and Nate Silver's model has led me to change my mind. Hillary will win Nevada 52-46 and the talk about Bernie being a truly national candidate will begin. Does he really have appeal coast to coast? I''m not sure he does.

On the GOP side, Donald Trump will pick up another primary with Ted Cruz coming in 2nd, Bush 3rd, Rubio 4th, Kasich 5th and Ben Carson 6th. Bush's 3rd place showing will keep him around long enough until Super Tuesday. Rubio's camp is going to have to start answering the tough questions starting with a the big one. Why is someone who has finished 3rd place or worse still in the campaign? Kasich sill be around until Super Tuesday as well. Carson needs to give it up. He has just enough of that wacky, ideological nonsense to appeal to the right wing blogger but they are a pretty small part of the electorate.

I hope the GOP continues to enjoy their top two candidates. They certainly deserve them:)

The Politics of Polls

Take a look at today's president polls on a national level. The head to head match ups are very interesting. Clinton bests only Trump and is behind Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Kasich. Yet Bernie Sanders beats all of them handily. Why is that?

Well, for starters, it's polling registered, not likely voters. And we are looking at national numbers and not the coveted state by state numbers. It really doesn't matter how a candidate is doing nationally because the only polls that matter are the ones in the swing states. Candidates like to spin how well they are doing nationally but I'm only interested in how they match up in Ohio. Or Florida. Or Virginia.

Ending the Transgender Bathroom Hysteria

South Dakota is the latest entrant in the fearfest many Republican-run states have been whipping up over transgendered individuals and bathrooms. Mike Huckabee dialed up his creep factor to 11 last year when he said:

"Now I wish that someone told me that when I was in high school that I could have felt like a woman when it came time to take showers in PE," Huckabee said.

The number of transgendered individuals in South Dakota high schools is going to be amazingly small. The number is estimated to be about 0.2 to 0.3 percent, or about 700,000 Americans. Given South Dakota's small population and lack of tolerance for transgendered individuals, there can't be more than a couple dozen in the entire state. So why the big stink?

The problem, as conservatives appear to see it, is that males claiming to be transgendered will be physically attracted to women and wish to spy on them in the toilet (because sitting in the stall next to someone taking a dump is so alluring).

However, many people born male who identify as women are attracted to men. And many people born female who identify as male are attracted to women. Which, in Republicans' minds, means they are gay. That means Republicans want to make people with homosexual tendencies use restrooms that are frequented by the sex they are physically attracted to.

In other words, Republicans want to force Mike Huckabee's wet dream on these transgendered individuals.

Not that long ago Republicans were going through a gay panic, worried that they would be trapped in a bathroom with a rapacious gay man. Now, just a few short years later, they want to force every allegedly gay man to share bathrooms with them, even when they've sex reassignment surgery, lopped off their penises, taken hormones and grown breasts.

Now, imagine how disconcerted Mike Huckabee will feel when he's taking a leak in the men's room and Caitlyn Jenner walks in. Wouldn't he rather she visit the ladies room and save everyone the embarrassment?

And how is this going to be enforced? Is South Dakota going to post toilet police outside every restroom and check your ID before they let you in? Or are they going to strip search everyone on the way in? With all those phony IDs floating around you just can't be too safe.

One thing these Republican men may not be aware of is that women's bathrooms provide a great deal more privacy than men's bathrooms. Men's bathrooms sport communal urinals, but women get private stalls. There's really nothing to see in a women's bathroom.

When I went to high school, boys showered communally, which I felt was a terrible invasion of privacy. Unlike Mike Huckabee, I didn't really like getting naked with a bunch of guys. However, my wife's school had private shower stalls in their locker rooms. The locker rooms in the women's sports programs at our local university have separate showers, the men shower communally. Even women's prisons, if Orange is the New Black is any kind of guide, have separate shower stalls.

So, sorry, Huck. Even if you had claimed you were a girl in high school, you'd be showering alone in a personal stall anyway.

Scanning the Internet, this seems to be the way it is across the country: women get privacy in their bathrooms, while men get communal urinals and sometimes even rows of toilets with no walls separating them.

Rather than fretting about transgendered individuals sneaking peaks, legislators should be taking steps to ensure everyone's privacy in the bathroom. Every student should be free from the prying eyes of other students, whether they're straight, gay or trans.

While we're talking toilets, there's another problem that deserves mention: in many places -- sports stadiums, for example -- there are nowhere near enough facilities for women. The line for the women's room is really long, while the men's room is empty. This has prompted some women to use the men's room instead.

Many public places now have three kinds of bathrooms: mens, womens and family -- the later being a single stool with a baby-changing station. This idea should be expanded: separate men's and women's rooms should be eliminated, replacing them with facilities that can be used by anyone in privacy. An adjacent penis-only urinal room could be provided for men who absolutely must flash their dicks for other men to see.

That would also put men and women on an equal footing waiting in line for toilet stalls.

The most dishonest thing about South Dakota bathroom scare is that trans kids are threatening anyone. By far and way the most frequent sort of sexual harassment in the schools is straight students harassing gays and trans kids.

But institutionalizing that harassment is the entire point, isn't it?

A Gun That Offered No Protection

Today, I'm wondering if Trisha Nelson knew that when she bought her gun and got her conceal carry permit that she would up being shot with it.

He had served his sentence and was on probation when he shot Nelson. He most likely used Nelson’s gun, for which she had a concealed-carry permit, Padden said.

Having a gun increase, not decreases, your chances of being shot.

Supreme Court Vacancy

A Cause We Believe To Be Just

"The probability that we may fall in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just; it shall not deter me." 

(Abraham Lincoln. Speech on the Sub-Treasury in the Illinois House of Representatives, December 26, 1839)

Our Diversity

"We need to reject any politics that targets people because of race or religion. This isn’t a matter of political correctness. It’s a matter of understanding what makes us strong. The world respects us not just for our arsenal; it respects us for our diversity and our openness and the way we respect every faith." 

(Barack Obama, State of the Union address (12 January 2016), Washington, D.C.)

Celebrate The Past, Awaken The Future

"We celebrate the past to awaken the future."

("Remarks at the 25th Anniversary of the Signing of the Social Security Act," Hyde Park, New York August 14, 1960, box 910, Senate Speech Files, John F. Kennedy Papers, Pre-Presidential Papers, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library.)

Undeserved Poverty, Self Serving Wealth

"The hopes of the Republic cannot forever tolerate either undeserved poverty or self-serving wealth." 

(Franklin D. Roosevelt, Third Inaugural Address. January 20, 1941)

The Man Who Makes No Mistakes

"The only man who makes no mistakes is the man who never does anything." 

(As quoted by Jacob A. Riis in Theodore Roosevelt, the Citizen (1904), chapter XVI A Young Men's Hero)

Internationally Minded

"No nation on this globe should be more internationally minded than America because it was built by all nations." 

(Harry Truman at Chicago, 17 March 1945, as recorded in Good Old Harry)

Things Just Crazier For 2016

With the passing of Justice Antonin Scalia, the political world has been thrown into more than just its usual upheaval. The Supreme Court is now drawn even at 4-4 and will likely vote that way on most of the incoming and most controversial cases. SCOTUS Blog has the best coverage available for exactly what it means in terms of these pending cases before the court.

President Obama has said that we will name a replacement quickly and expects the Senate to confirm his nomination. Mitch McConnell has said that such a nomination should be delayed a full year until the new president takes office. This tack was echoed last night by all candidates (save Jeb Bush) in the GOP debate. I guess the president's last year isn't exactly going to be calm.

Honestly, it's a lose-lose situation for McConnell. He stalls and the sheen that is on a somewhat productive Senate goes away during an election year. He allows a vote to go forward and the president gets to install a vote that will surely side with the four liberal justices thus tipping the balance. I think he's going to ride out that first choice as long as he can.

I hope he does:)

A Stew of Resentment and Victimization

From a recent, wonderful piece on Salon.com...

But what was most obvious in the long, long list of grievances that Fry, Anderson, her husband Sean, and the fourth person, Jeff Banta, was that these were people steeped in the muddled and reactionary right-wing politics that have turned the base of the Republican Party into a stew of resentment and victimization. 

These were people who have spent years being told by conservative media that everyone is out to get them and everyone is stepping all over them while minorities and liberals and immigrants and jackbooted federal officers steal their jobs and their guns and turn America into a giant, sharia-ruled suburb of Tijuana.

Sounds to me like a cult...:)

Or a gun blog...same thing...

The Trump Rally

The responses about China/Mexico and ISIS are pretty fucking hilarious.