A Tightening Race?

The presidential race is tightening and the Democrats are officially starting to poop themselves with the release of each new poll. Haven't we see this movie before? Oh, right, that was 2012 when Mitt Romney (actually someone who was qualified to be president) gained on Barack Obama and everyone predicted the Mittster would be the next president. They used a similar metric to what they are saying today...lack of voter enthusiasm, especially among young people, would ruin the president.

How did that turn out?

Now, I'm not going to assuage people from jumping up and down and acting like Trump could actually win this thing. I think everyone should spend from now until election day operating under the assumption that Trump is actually ahead in the polls. Why? Because Hillary Clinton can't merely eke out a victory. She has to demolish him with the American people sending a clear message to The Deplorables.

We are not going back. We are moving forward. Take your nonsense and dissolve on the ash heap of history.

If there is vacuum in the sense of urgency department, the election will be much closer than it should be. People that think that Hillary is going to walk away with this one because Trump is nuts are going to deprive her of the political capital she needs to govern starting next year. So, crap away in fear, I say, and let's get more people out there to vote.

In terms of nuts and bolts, here is where the race sits today.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

My map is based on an analysis of the following:

The Polls Plus Model at 538.

Real Clear Politics Battle For The White House

Hillary still has the advantage and likely has more than 270 electoral votes. Yet Trump is ahead in the average of polls in Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. Hillary is ahead in North Carolina and Nevada with those averages. All six of these states are within the margin of error. If we put them in as either red or blue, we have this map.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

So, a much closer race than a couple of weeks ago.

Trump has benefited from an awful week from Clinton as well as being graded on a curve. All he has to do is basically show up, not make an ass out of himself, and he gets a good grade. My hope is the media is going to start getting a lot tougher on him in these last few weeks. Now that he has proven he's an adult, he should be asked adult questions on specific policy points.

Of course, a tight race makes for better ratings for the media so who knows?

Respecting the Flag

Good Words...from Ted Cruz?

Ted Cruz on Donald Trump

"Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing," Ted Cruz, whom Trump relentlessly attacked as a liar during the Republican primaries, said at a fiery press conference the morning of the Indiana primary in May. "In a pattern that I think is straight out of a psychology textbook, his response is to accuse everybody else of lying. He accuses everybody on that debate stage of lying. And it's simply a mindless yell."

Hmm...that sounds awfully familiar...:)

A Basket of Hypocrites

Help me out here, folks. Donald Trump has staked his candidacy on shunning political correctness. He and his followers are tired of people that are offended all the time. And yet now, Trump and his people are all over the Hilz about her "basket of deplorables" comment? A commenter over at Quora summed it up best.

If you have no problem supporting and even agreeing with a man who says derogatory things about non-whites and women, and who has effectively made white racists and white nationalism a thing in the Republican party, then why are your knickers in a knot when someone actually calls you deplorable for at worst, identifying/agreeing with this stuff, and at best, associating with such people?  

This IS deplorable stuff. And Hillary shouldn’t apologize-she’s dead right about you guys. If anything, she lowballed the percentage. Those of you who aren’t racists should be examining your souls as to why you want to associate with and support the same man that the likes of Duke are supporting. And for those of you who are…well, you ARE deplorable.

Amen, sister! Calling people out on their bullshit like this should happen more often in this country.

Check out the polls. These are facts, folks, not the passing opinion of the Democratic candidate for president. Half of Trump's supporters are racist.

And they are also kinda dumb. Now they are wearing their deplorables label like a badge of honor.

Great! Now we can easily identify the racists:)

Did Trump's Russian SVR Pals Give Hillary Pneumonia?

I'm just asking.

Because Trump is constantly spewing ridiculous conspiracy theories about what Hillary might do when she's elected, it's only fair to ask questions about what Trump would do to get elected.

And dirty tricks are exactly the sort of thing that Trump (and Republicans in general) love to engage in.

Think about it. Trump and his surrogates have been yammering nonsense about Hillary's health for a couple of months now, setting the hook. Then, magically, after they've been talking trash about her, Hillary suddenly comes down with pneumonia.

Coincidence?

The Russians have a long history of assassinating people in other countries with various types of poisons: in England they poisoned Alexander Litvinenkio with polonium 210, and Georgi Markov with a ricin-tipped umbrella. They poisoned Czech reformer Alexander Dubcek with radioactive isotopes in his soup (he recovered). Also in London they poisoned whistleblower Alexander Perepilichny with a flower found in Asia. They poisoned Ukrainian politician Viktor Yushchenko with dioxin, leaving him horribly disfigured (he has mostly recovered).

Now, the Russians couldn't get away with poisoning Hillary Clinton. Suspicion would fall upon them immediately. Trump would be branded a traitor, by all except those morons who are begging him to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue.

But giving Clinton pneumonia, that's the perfect crime: it's a common disease that you can pick up anywhere. I had it once myself, completely out of the blue, and had no symptoms except a terrible headache and exhaustion.

Is there any evidence of this? No.

But that wouldn't stop Donald Trump from putting a theory like this out there. Spewing these sorts of lies and conspiracies is what Trump and his followers do every day. They fabricate lie after lie after lie, and make up grand conspiracies -- like a 50-year plan to place an anti-British Muslim Kenyan dictator in the White House.

So I'm not saying that Trump had his Russian pals in the SVR (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki, or External Intelligence Service, the successor to the KGB) gave Hillary pneumonia. I'm just asking the question, like the misogynists at Fox News or Donald Trump's misogynistic alt-right white supremacist buddies at Breitbart do.

But when Donald Trump constantly extols the virtues of Vladimir Putin, saying what a great and strong leader Putin is for seizing parts of Georgia and Ukraine, and assassinating political opponents like Boris Nemtsov and journalists like Anna Politkovskaya, you gotta wonder if Trump is taking plays out of Putin's play book.

Bad Ass

Remember...

WTF, Right Wing Bloggers?

Remember this?

This was a headline to the Drudge Report a while back in which he very clearly intimated that our country, under Barack Obama and the Democrats, was going to become a totalitarian state like the Soviet Union. Right wing bloggers like Drudge have been foaming at the mouth that we don't take Putin seriously and that liberals are still plotting a secret government take over that will result in a Russia style state.

Yet in the same breath, folks like Matt Drudge support Donald Trump,  a man who has now tripled down on his love for Vladimir Putin, calling him a "great leader." A great leader?!? Really!!!? This is a guy who kills journalists and rules his country much like Stalin did. How on earth can right wing bloggers support the very thing that supposedly keeps them up at night? Consider all of Trump's very clear connections to Russia and how that makes him essentially a puppet of Putin.

Despite denial, Trump's connections to Russia go back years

Here’s what we know about Donald Trump and his ties to Russia

Donald Trump’s Many, Many, Many, Many Ties to Russia

Even folks like semi-retired gun blogger Kevin Baker and his readers are going to vote for Donald Trump. Why? Because they think Hillary is going to take away their guns. Personally, I wish she would and start with those guys but it's not going to happen. Kevin has spent years writing on his blog about the education system and Yuri Bezmenov, an ex KGB guy, who has warned the US about a totalitarian takeover. Now he and others like him in the right wing blogsphere are ACTUALLY VOTING FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

Kevin, I had planned on leaving you alone but this complete capitulation to Putin via Trump is such a monumental example of hypocrisy that it necessitate inquiry. You rail against Russia's influence in the US and now you are going to help make that happen by voting for Putin's puppet. I have to wonder...WTF, dude? All of the long posts about Bezmenov...the education system...communists plots...ALL now rendered worthless. Where is your integrity, man? I'll be looking for your response on your site.

Given the right wing bloggers' penchant for authoritarianism, illustrated quite well in any sort of engagement with them in comments sections, my only guess here is that they are for totalitarianism if the right people are in charge. If they have some naggy liberal trying to make the world a better place and making them do stuff that they don't wanna, well, fuck that!

But if they have a system where they can keep their guns to guard against government tyranny and still jail people for being against that government and not being patriotic enough then, by gum, the are ALL IN!!!

Bush League Adolesents

Gary Johnson's brain fart yesterday on "Morning Joe" illustrates the fundamental flaw in libertarian ideology. Like adolescents, they are completely unaware of the world beyond their little sphere of tantrums and rebellion towards authority. They refuse to see how problems that happen across the world affect us here in the US. The ignore or outright dismiss the very concept of globalization, pretending that we can wall ourselves off from the rest of the world and comfortably live our lives.

The video below shows a child playing in an adult world. The fact that we have so many other people that think like him should now be the focus of the conversation. What can we do to get these people to grow up?

The (ahem) Commander in Chief Forum Post Mortem

Like many in the media, I thought last night's Commander in Chief forum was a fucking joke. Neither candidate was asked very serious questions about the issues of the day, in particular, foreign policy. Most of Hillary Clinton's time was spent on her email server. Donald Trump was asked about his love for Vladimir Putin. How about a question that called for specifics about Syria? Or climate change?

Last night brings up a larger issue which is most troubling. As Heather Parton over at Slate notes, most Americans believe a cartoon version of Hillary Clinton that bears no resemblance to reality.

Follow Chris Cillizza ✔ @TheFix This election is about voters choosing the least worst candidate. That's where we are in our politics. 10:43 AM - 4 Sep 2016 89 89 Retweets 194 194 likes 

That tweet from Chris Cilizza of The Washington Post’s The Fix blog is cleverly framed to be about the voters’ view of this campaign. Both candidates do have high unfavorable ratings among the public (as does the Congress and pretty much every other institution, including the press.) That jaded comment by a member of the media, however, illustrates something important. Some members of the press are not just commenting on a reality; they are pushing the theme of two equally unpalatable candidates and it just isn’t true.

Indeed. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are not equally unpalatable. Trump is the most unqualified candidate to every run for office. He's mentally unstable, filled with anger-hate-fear, and views the presidency as a monarchy. Hillary Clinton was careless with her emails as Secretary of State.

Even though Clinton is still the likely winner, we, as a country, need to stop with this fairness bullshit, not just for this election but for the future. When Trump offers zero specifics on his plans, the media needs to keep pressing. He, and all other candidates, need to be asked specific questions and held accountable for their lack of detail.

Enough with the Cult of Both Sides. Donald Trump and the people that support him are an imminent danger to our country. Their ignorance, fueled by anger, hate and fear, needs to be called out over and over again from now until November 8th.

The Media's Five Unspoken Rules For Covering Hillary Clinton

Reprinted here from this very much spot on piece from Jonathan Allen.

1) Everything, no matter how ludicrous-sounding, is worthy of a full investigation by federal agencies, Congress, the "vast right-wing conspiracy," and mainstream media outlets

2) Every allegation, no matter how ludicrous, is believable until it can be proven completely and utterly false. And even then, it keeps a life of its own in the conservative media world. 

3) The media assumes that Clinton is acting in bad faith until there's hard evidence otherwise. 

4) Everything is newsworthy because the Clintons are the equivalent of America's royal family. 

5) Everything she does is fake and calculated for maximum political benefit.

I'd like to see them apply this standard to Donald Trump.

Consumed By Right Wing Bloggery

Like most Americans, I used to find Scot Adams' Dilbert cartoon amusing. His take on the modern office space was fun and irreverent. But lately, he has been letting his ideological slip show and I'm sad to report he's bought in to the right wing blogger ideology, hook, line and sinker.

This recent post about Donald Trump really says it all. It's basically one long diatribe about how Donald Trump really isn't all that bad because our modern political system is a disaster and we should just nuke the site from orbit. Like I said, classic right wing blogger mentality. Let's destroy all the poopy stuff I don't like that makes my head hurt with all the stoopid rules and stuff that mom and dad make me follow (stomp...stomp...stomp...SLAM!)

Adams' fundamental premise is flawed. Fear of Trump isn't the same as fear of the dark. Donald Trump is a shining light of ineptitude, buffoonery, and massive incompetence. He's a con man, plain as day, so we should absolutely be afraid that he might be president. The notion that everything is so fucked up with politics that Trump wouldn't be any different illustrates just how fucking ignorant people can be. Ironic, because Adams attempts to push his own confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance on people who are "afraid of Trump."

Who's really the ignorant one here, Scott?

Crooked Hillary and Crazy Donald

As this election season enters its final phase, it's become painfully obvious there is a double standard in terms of candidate bashing. This piece from Olivia Taylor-Young sums it up quite nicely.

1) The most benign, run-of-the-mill stuff is automatic cause for suspicion. 

2) Bad faith must always be presumed. 

3) Regardless of source, every vicious, outlandish accusation warrants headlines and intense investigation.

This is, of course, what happens when you deal with a group of people (conservatives) who behave as adolescents. And a media that gets very high ratings when Clinton scandals are front and center.

Certainly, Trump has been the target of media bashing as well. But the story that sells the best with him is the "Trump is a crazy asshole" meme, not "Trump is crooked and broke the law." Today, I'm wondering why and calling bullshit.

Let's take this step by step. Remember this?



This was just one in a series of comments in which Trump bragged that he paid to play, something he is now pillorying Hillary Clinton for doing. The New York Times has an extensive article up today about how Trump has clearly violated campaign law.

In the 1990s, the Federal Election Commission fined Mr. Trump for exceeding the annual limit on campaign contributions by $47,050, the largest violation in a single year. And in 2000, the New York State lobbying commission imposed a $250,000 fine for Mr. Trump’s failing to disclose the full extent of his lobbying of state legislators. For the most part, Mr. Trump has seemed unrepentant. Testifying in 1988 about a $50,000 bank loan he had first guaranteed, and then repaid, on behalf of Andrew J. Stein’s successful campaign for New York City Council president, Mr. Trump made no bones about the move. “I was under the impression that I was getting my money back,” he told the New York State Commission on Government Integrity.

Imagine if this were Hillary Clinton. There would be calls for jail time, public floggings and a town hanging. But for Trump? He's just a businessman...that's what they do...and now he's calling attention to a broken system.

Except not really.

In the Florida case, Mr. Trump is accused of using a large and timely political donation in 2013 to ward off a potentially thorny investigation by Ms. Bondi’s office: Days before the donation was made, The Orlando Sentinel reported that the New York State attorney general’s office had sued Trump University and noted that Ms. Bondi’s office was weighing whether to join in that litigation.

A political aide to Ms. Bondi told The Associated Press earlier this year that the attorney general had solicited the donation in a conversation with Mr. Trump weeks before The Sentinel’s article. But Mr. Trump made the donation from his charitable foundation, in violation of tax regulations, and paid the penalty, as first reported by The Washington Post last week.

So, here we have Donald Trump behaving like...a politician? That really does not fit with his image as an outsider who wants to change politics as usual. Worse, and unlike the Hilz, there is clear evidence that violated the law.

The question now is...will all of the media cover this because it's not a "Crazy Donald" story?

50 State Poll

The Washington Post's recent 50 state poll is a veritable treasure trove for political junkies like me. The first thing that jumps out at me is how the electoral map has shifted quite a bit based on the candidates themselves. The race is much tighter in rust belt states which is good news for Trump. Yet Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error in places like Texas, Mississippi, Georgia and Arizona. What does all this mean?

Well, this was a poll based on 74,000 REGISTERED voters, not likely voters. This makes a huge difference and probably means that Trump is safe in Texas and Mississippi for example. Conversely, this means that Hillary Clinton is safe in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well. This poll does, however, show that Hillary Clinton does have a substantial lead over Donald Trump and is basically a couple of states away from 270. Hillary has 244 and Donald has 126 in the solid and leaning category. That's pretty bad.

Here's the video that breaks it all down.

The Biggest Challenge For Hillary Clinton

With the final stretch of the 2016 Election about to begin tomorrow, Hillary Clinton's biggest challenge is convincing the American public that she is more trustworthy than her image is currently showing. Today's piece in the Times is most illustrative of this.

“What am I supposed to do if I don’t like him and I don’t trust her?” a millennial black woman in Ohio asked. “Choose between being stabbed and being shot? No way!”

“She was part of the whole problem that started sending blacks to jail,” a young black man, also from Ohio, observed about Mrs. Clinton.

“He’s a racist, and she is a liar, so really what’s the difference in choosing both or choosing neither?” another young black woman from Ohio said.

And this is from black millenials, a group she will likely carry over Donald Trump. Not good at all. So what does she need to do?

The first debate presents her with a moment to make amends, as best she can, for all of this and show the country that she has the moralistic fortitude to lead this country. Donald Trump is going to attempt to make this his moment as well and I think he may surprise some people. He may very well chuck all the personal attacks, which is what Hillary and her people are preparing for, and merely talk about how great he is and what he will do to help people less fortunate than himself. There may even be a touch of humility in some stuff he says.  His "unpredictability" could be being more normal. Of course, I could be wrong about all of this and he will simply go on with his anger, hate and fear.

Regardless, she needs to answer the email question the way she did when she was interviewed recently by the Morning Joe team.

"Every time I attempt to explain my email server, I end up sounding like I am making excuses. So, no excuses. I made a mistake and I was careless. I apologize."

She could add on to this by saying the following.

"I make no excuses and have learned that, as president, I will have to be more careful to handle sensitive, government material, classified or not. And I promise you that I will."

When she is asked about her foundation, her response should be as follows.

"Though our foundation helps many people around the world, myself and my family can help many more if I become president. So, the foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative will be folded into the Gates Foundation and they can continue on with our work. All documents relating to the foundation and my meetings as Secretary of State will be made public, if they haven't already, for anyone to pour over."

Throughout the entire debate, she should also explain how she learned from her mistakes and how that reflection made her a stronger and more solid person. After all, Trump isn't going to admit any of this so the contrast will be clear between the two candidates. People tend to identify more with leaders who are like them.

Everyone makes mistakes. If Hillary shows us that she is like the rest of us, she eliminates the perception that she is above common folk and that talking point evaporates.

Stand!

Latest Election Map

Here's my latest map based on the polls and various resources.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

As we can see, Hillary has fallen off a bit in terms of her monumental lead. Now we have more of a modest lead with Iowa trending towards Trump. North Carolina has move more back to Trump as well. In many ways, North Carolina represents the struggle to shift out of the chains of the past and into the progression towards the future. It's almost there, just not quite yet.

Good Words

From First Read: “More than two months before Election Day, it’s already happening: Downballot Republicans and top GOP leaders are dumping Trump. There was no public memo or major announcement in August — just actions…” 

 “But here’s the bad news: After Labor Day, almost every single Democrat in a House and Senate race will be tying their GOP opponent to Trump. So up and down the ticket, hundreds of millions of dollars in Democratic messaging will be ‘Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.’ And when there’s been that kind of disparity in messaging when one party is talking about one thing and the opposition is talking about everything else — see 2006 and 2008 (‘Bush, Bush, Bush’) or 2010 and 2014 (‘Obama, Obama, Obama’) — there’s been a wave. November is going to go one of two ways. One, this kind of GOP separation from Trump is going to work like we saw in 1996. Or two, the bottom is going to fall out for the Republican Party.”

I'm thinking it's going to be the latter...:)

Trump's Position on Immigration

If someone can explain to me Donald Trump's position on immigration, I'd be grateful. Oh wait, Steve Sack just did...

Things You Can/Can't Do in the NFL