Contributors

Saturday, July 23, 2016

The Safe Bet

As many political pundits predicted, Hillary Clinton chose Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate. A collective yawn went up around the country but the pick is a lot more exciting than people think. It tells me that she thinks she has the election in the bag.

If the Hilz were worried at all, she would have picked Sherrod Brown or Tom Vilsack to shore up support in two states that I currently rank as dead nut even. The choice of Kaine shows me that she thinks she has those states more or less locked up and wants to take Virginia off the board for Trump. It more or less already is but with Kaine now in the VP slot, Trump won't win there now given demographic reality. She has basically forced him into a path where he has to run the table in the Rust Belt. Kaine also helps her in Florida where their first event will be held today. Kaine is fluent in Spanish and that will go over very, very well in this Sunshine State.

The Times has a predictor model that shows that if Virginia is taken off the board for Trump, along with the likely Dem win of Nevada, he only has 5 ways to win and Hillary has 251 ways to win the presidency. If Hillary wins Florida, it's over and that's even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire (along with the likely Trump wins now in Arizona and Georgia which were in play briefly).

The other big thing about the Kaine pick is that it shows how conscientious Hillary Clinton is. Tim Kaine is the best choice of all of them if she is incapacitated to be president. He has the most experience and the right temperament to serve as commander in chief.

So, I think Kaine is a great choice and will help her out tremendously going forward in this election.

No comments: