The massive freak out about the recent presidential polls has amused me immensely. Trump is even with Hillary! AAAAAAAHHHHHH!!! Look out!!! The reality is much more complex.
For those of you who are still pooping themselves, please make Nate Silver's 538 site a regular stop every day and take some time to examine the variety of polls as well as the "polls plus" predictors. Hillary is still the favorite to win despite having a terrible couple of weeks. Make it a point to focus on the state polls, in particular, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These are the most important states in this year's election. This is true for both candidates and each represents a microcasm of the 2016 presidential election overall.
Recent polling suggests that the electorate has shifted slightly since the 2012 presidential election. States like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina are skewing bluer this election cycle than previous ones. This is largely due to shifting demographics in the state to a less white populace. Given Donald Trump’s comments about Mexicans and Muslims, its no wonder that he is polling so badly in these states. If Hillary Clinton wins 3 of these 4 states, and it looks like she will, Trump has to win Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Trump has appeal to many voters in the whiter states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Some traditional Democratic voters who feel like they are being left behind by the progression of our country are voting for Trump. This is making him competitive in these states. Florida has many voters like this as well but it also has many non white voters so what’s happening on a national level in terms of a battle between two demographic groups (older, white voters and non white voters).
So, it really comes down to these three states and the pressure is more on Trump, electorally, than Hillary. If she wins just one of the three, it’s over. In fact, if she wins Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, along with Wisconsin and all the other states she is slated to win, she wins the election without Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. And, while Ohio and Florida have flip flopped back and forth over the last few election cycles, Pennsylvania has not gone red since 1988. Even with the shifting electoral demographic, it’s going to be tough for Trump to win the state as the Democratic voter machine is very well organized and funded there.
This is the time when it's going to be toughest for Hillary. The FBI report on her email mistake has taken its toll. The GOP convention is next week and Trump will likely get a bump, although that may end up not being true since so many high profile and well known GOPers are skipping the convention. Add in the not ready for prime time kids of Donald Trump and it could very well be a disaster. The contrast of the Democratic convention with all of its star power (President Obama, President Clinton, Vice President Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren etc) will be stunning. Look for the Hilz numbers to go up after the Democratic convention and likely return to her greater lead.
Personally, I'm glad the polls are more even. People need to get out there and be more motivated. I don't want a mere victory in November. I want an ass kicking. And that happens if people think that Trump could win.
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