The presidential race is tightening and the Democrats are officially starting to poop themselves with the release of each new poll. Haven't we see this movie before? Oh, right, that was 2012 when Mitt Romney (actually someone who was qualified to be president) gained on Barack Obama and everyone predicted the Mittster would be the next president. They used a similar metric to what they are saying today...lack of voter enthusiasm, especially among young people, would ruin the president.
How did that turn out?
Now, I'm not going to assuage people from jumping up and down and acting like Trump could actually win this thing. I think everyone should spend from now until election day operating under the assumption that Trump is actually ahead in the polls. Why? Because Hillary Clinton can't merely eke out a victory. She has to demolish him with the American people sending a clear message to The Deplorables.
We are not going back. We are moving forward. Take your nonsense and dissolve on the ash heap of history.
If there is vacuum in the sense of urgency department, the election will be much closer than it should be. People that think that Hillary is going to walk away with this one because Trump is nuts are going to deprive her of the political capital she needs to govern starting next year. So, crap away in fear, I say, and let's get more people out there to vote.
In terms of nuts and bolts, here is where the race sits today.
My map is based on an analysis of the following:
The Polls Plus Model at 538.
Real Clear Politics Battle For The White House
Hillary still has the advantage and likely has more than 270 electoral votes. Yet Trump is ahead in the average of polls in Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. Hillary is ahead in North Carolina and Nevada with those averages. All six of these states are within the margin of error. If we put them in as either red or blue, we have this map.
So, a much closer race than a couple of weeks ago.
Trump has benefited from an awful week from Clinton as well as being graded on a curve. All he has to do is basically show up, not make an ass out of himself, and he gets a good grade. My hope is the media is going to start getting a lot tougher on him in these last few weeks. Now that he has proven he's an adult, he should be asked adult questions on specific policy points.
Of course, a tight race makes for better ratings for the media so who knows?
Showing posts with label 2016 Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 Election. Show all posts
Thursday, September 15, 2016
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Tuesday, September 13, 2016
A Basket of Hypocrites
Help me out here, folks. Donald Trump has staked his candidacy on shunning political correctness. He and his followers are tired of people that are offended all the time. And yet now, Trump and his people are all over the Hilz about her "basket of deplorables" comment? A commenter over at Quora summed it up best.
If you have no problem supporting and even agreeing with a man who says derogatory things about non-whites and women, and who has effectively made white racists and white nationalism a thing in the Republican party, then why are your knickers in a knot when someone actually calls you deplorable for at worst, identifying/agreeing with this stuff, and at best, associating with such people?
This IS deplorable stuff. And Hillary shouldn’t apologize-she’s dead right about you guys. If anything, she lowballed the percentage. Those of you who aren’t racists should be examining your souls as to why you want to associate with and support the same man that the likes of Duke are supporting. And for those of you who are…well, you ARE deplorable.
Amen, sister! Calling people out on their bullshit like this should happen more often in this country.
Check out the polls. These are facts, folks, not the passing opinion of the Democratic candidate for president. Half of Trump's supporters are racist.
And they are also kinda dumb. Now they are wearing their deplorables label like a badge of honor.
Great! Now we can easily identify the racists:)
If you have no problem supporting and even agreeing with a man who says derogatory things about non-whites and women, and who has effectively made white racists and white nationalism a thing in the Republican party, then why are your knickers in a knot when someone actually calls you deplorable for at worst, identifying/agreeing with this stuff, and at best, associating with such people?
This IS deplorable stuff. And Hillary shouldn’t apologize-she’s dead right about you guys. If anything, she lowballed the percentage. Those of you who aren’t racists should be examining your souls as to why you want to associate with and support the same man that the likes of Duke are supporting. And for those of you who are…well, you ARE deplorable.
Amen, sister! Calling people out on their bullshit like this should happen more often in this country.
Check out the polls. These are facts, folks, not the passing opinion of the Democratic candidate for president. Half of Trump's supporters are racist.
And they are also kinda dumb. Now they are wearing their deplorables label like a badge of honor.
Great! Now we can easily identify the racists:)
Monday, September 12, 2016
Thursday, September 08, 2016
The (ahem) Commander in Chief Forum Post Mortem
Like many in the media, I thought last night's Commander in Chief forum was a fucking joke. Neither candidate was asked very serious questions about the issues of the day, in particular, foreign policy. Most of Hillary Clinton's time was spent on her email server. Donald Trump was asked about his love for Vladimir Putin. How about a question that called for specifics about Syria? Or climate change?
Last night brings up a larger issue which is most troubling. As Heather Parton over at Slate notes, most Americans believe a cartoon version of Hillary Clinton that bears no resemblance to reality.
Follow Chris Cillizza ✔ @TheFix This election is about voters choosing the least worst candidate. That's where we are in our politics. 10:43 AM - 4 Sep 2016 89 89 Retweets 194 194 likes
That tweet from Chris Cilizza of The Washington Post’s The Fix blog is cleverly framed to be about the voters’ view of this campaign. Both candidates do have high unfavorable ratings among the public (as does the Congress and pretty much every other institution, including the press.) That jaded comment by a member of the media, however, illustrates something important. Some members of the press are not just commenting on a reality; they are pushing the theme of two equally unpalatable candidates and it just isn’t true.
Indeed. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are not equally unpalatable. Trump is the most unqualified candidate to every run for office. He's mentally unstable, filled with anger-hate-fear, and views the presidency as a monarchy. Hillary Clinton was careless with her emails as Secretary of State.
Even though Clinton is still the likely winner, we, as a country, need to stop with this fairness bullshit, not just for this election but for the future. When Trump offers zero specifics on his plans, the media needs to keep pressing. He, and all other candidates, need to be asked specific questions and held accountable for their lack of detail.
Enough with the Cult of Both Sides. Donald Trump and the people that support him are an imminent danger to our country. Their ignorance, fueled by anger, hate and fear, needs to be called out over and over again from now until November 8th.
Last night brings up a larger issue which is most troubling. As Heather Parton over at Slate notes, most Americans believe a cartoon version of Hillary Clinton that bears no resemblance to reality.
Follow Chris Cillizza ✔ @TheFix This election is about voters choosing the least worst candidate. That's where we are in our politics. 10:43 AM - 4 Sep 2016 89 89 Retweets 194 194 likes
That tweet from Chris Cilizza of The Washington Post’s The Fix blog is cleverly framed to be about the voters’ view of this campaign. Both candidates do have high unfavorable ratings among the public (as does the Congress and pretty much every other institution, including the press.) That jaded comment by a member of the media, however, illustrates something important. Some members of the press are not just commenting on a reality; they are pushing the theme of two equally unpalatable candidates and it just isn’t true.
Indeed. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are not equally unpalatable. Trump is the most unqualified candidate to every run for office. He's mentally unstable, filled with anger-hate-fear, and views the presidency as a monarchy. Hillary Clinton was careless with her emails as Secretary of State.
Even though Clinton is still the likely winner, we, as a country, need to stop with this fairness bullshit, not just for this election but for the future. When Trump offers zero specifics on his plans, the media needs to keep pressing. He, and all other candidates, need to be asked specific questions and held accountable for their lack of detail.
Enough with the Cult of Both Sides. Donald Trump and the people that support him are an imminent danger to our country. Their ignorance, fueled by anger, hate and fear, needs to be called out over and over again from now until November 8th.
The Media's Five Unspoken Rules For Covering Hillary Clinton
Reprinted here from this very much spot on piece from Jonathan Allen.
1) Everything, no matter how ludicrous-sounding, is worthy of a full investigation by federal agencies, Congress, the "vast right-wing conspiracy," and mainstream media outlets
2) Every allegation, no matter how ludicrous, is believable until it can be proven completely and utterly false. And even then, it keeps a life of its own in the conservative media world.
3) The media assumes that Clinton is acting in bad faith until there's hard evidence otherwise.
4) Everything is newsworthy because the Clintons are the equivalent of America's royal family.
5) Everything she does is fake and calculated for maximum political benefit.
I'd like to see them apply this standard to Donald Trump.
1) Everything, no matter how ludicrous-sounding, is worthy of a full investigation by federal agencies, Congress, the "vast right-wing conspiracy," and mainstream media outlets
2) Every allegation, no matter how ludicrous, is believable until it can be proven completely and utterly false. And even then, it keeps a life of its own in the conservative media world.
3) The media assumes that Clinton is acting in bad faith until there's hard evidence otherwise.
4) Everything is newsworthy because the Clintons are the equivalent of America's royal family.
5) Everything she does is fake and calculated for maximum political benefit.
I'd like to see them apply this standard to Donald Trump.
Consumed By Right Wing Bloggery
Like most Americans, I used to find Scot Adams' Dilbert cartoon amusing. His take on the modern office space was fun and irreverent. But lately, he has been letting his ideological slip show and I'm sad to report he's bought in to the right wing blogger ideology, hook, line and sinker.
This recent post about Donald Trump really says it all. It's basically one long diatribe about how Donald Trump really isn't all that bad because our modern political system is a disaster and we should just nuke the site from orbit. Like I said, classic right wing blogger mentality. Let's destroy all the poopy stuff I don't like that makes my head hurt with all the stoopid rules and stuff that mom and dad make me follow (stomp...stomp...stomp...SLAM!)
Adams' fundamental premise is flawed. Fear of Trump isn't the same as fear of the dark. Donald Trump is a shining light of ineptitude, buffoonery, and massive incompetence. He's a con man, plain as day, so we should absolutely be afraid that he might be president. The notion that everything is so fucked up with politics that Trump wouldn't be any different illustrates just how fucking ignorant people can be. Ironic, because Adams attempts to push his own confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance on people who are "afraid of Trump."
Who's really the ignorant one here, Scott?
This recent post about Donald Trump really says it all. It's basically one long diatribe about how Donald Trump really isn't all that bad because our modern political system is a disaster and we should just nuke the site from orbit. Like I said, classic right wing blogger mentality. Let's destroy all the poopy stuff I don't like that makes my head hurt with all the stoopid rules and stuff that mom and dad make me follow (stomp...stomp...stomp...SLAM!)
Adams' fundamental premise is flawed. Fear of Trump isn't the same as fear of the dark. Donald Trump is a shining light of ineptitude, buffoonery, and massive incompetence. He's a con man, plain as day, so we should absolutely be afraid that he might be president. The notion that everything is so fucked up with politics that Trump wouldn't be any different illustrates just how fucking ignorant people can be. Ironic, because Adams attempts to push his own confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance on people who are "afraid of Trump."
Who's really the ignorant one here, Scott?
Wednesday, September 07, 2016
Crooked Hillary and Crazy Donald
As this election season enters its final phase, it's become painfully obvious there is a double standard in terms of candidate bashing. This piece from Olivia Taylor-Young sums it up quite nicely.
1) The most benign, run-of-the-mill stuff is automatic cause for suspicion.
2) Bad faith must always be presumed.
3) Regardless of source, every vicious, outlandish accusation warrants headlines and intense investigation.
This is, of course, what happens when you deal with a group of people (conservatives) who behave as adolescents. And a media that gets very high ratings when Clinton scandals are front and center.
Certainly, Trump has been the target of media bashing as well. But the story that sells the best with him is the "Trump is a crazy asshole" meme, not "Trump is crooked and broke the law." Today, I'm wondering why and calling bullshit.
Let's take this step by step. Remember this?
This was just one in a series of comments in which Trump bragged that he paid to play, something he is now pillorying Hillary Clinton for doing. The New York Times has an extensive article up today about how Trump has clearly violated campaign law.
In the 1990s, the Federal Election Commission fined Mr. Trump for exceeding the annual limit on campaign contributions by $47,050, the largest violation in a single year. And in 2000, the New York State lobbying commission imposed a $250,000 fine for Mr. Trump’s failing to disclose the full extent of his lobbying of state legislators. For the most part, Mr. Trump has seemed unrepentant. Testifying in 1988 about a $50,000 bank loan he had first guaranteed, and then repaid, on behalf of Andrew J. Stein’s successful campaign for New York City Council president, Mr. Trump made no bones about the move. “I was under the impression that I was getting my money back,” he told the New York State Commission on Government Integrity.
Imagine if this were Hillary Clinton. There would be calls for jail time, public floggings and a town hanging. But for Trump? He's just a businessman...that's what they do...and now he's calling attention to a broken system.
Except not really.
In the Florida case, Mr. Trump is accused of using a large and timely political donation in 2013 to ward off a potentially thorny investigation by Ms. Bondi’s office: Days before the donation was made, The Orlando Sentinel reported that the New York State attorney general’s office had sued Trump University and noted that Ms. Bondi’s office was weighing whether to join in that litigation.
A political aide to Ms. Bondi told The Associated Press earlier this year that the attorney general had solicited the donation in a conversation with Mr. Trump weeks before The Sentinel’s article. But Mr. Trump made the donation from his charitable foundation, in violation of tax regulations, and paid the penalty, as first reported by The Washington Post last week.
So, here we have Donald Trump behaving like...a politician? That really does not fit with his image as an outsider who wants to change politics as usual. Worse, and unlike the Hilz, there is clear evidence that violated the law.
The question now is...will all of the media cover this because it's not a "Crazy Donald" story?
1) The most benign, run-of-the-mill stuff is automatic cause for suspicion.
2) Bad faith must always be presumed.
3) Regardless of source, every vicious, outlandish accusation warrants headlines and intense investigation.
This is, of course, what happens when you deal with a group of people (conservatives) who behave as adolescents. And a media that gets very high ratings when Clinton scandals are front and center.
Certainly, Trump has been the target of media bashing as well. But the story that sells the best with him is the "Trump is a crazy asshole" meme, not "Trump is crooked and broke the law." Today, I'm wondering why and calling bullshit.
Let's take this step by step. Remember this?
This was just one in a series of comments in which Trump bragged that he paid to play, something he is now pillorying Hillary Clinton for doing. The New York Times has an extensive article up today about how Trump has clearly violated campaign law.
In the 1990s, the Federal Election Commission fined Mr. Trump for exceeding the annual limit on campaign contributions by $47,050, the largest violation in a single year. And in 2000, the New York State lobbying commission imposed a $250,000 fine for Mr. Trump’s failing to disclose the full extent of his lobbying of state legislators. For the most part, Mr. Trump has seemed unrepentant. Testifying in 1988 about a $50,000 bank loan he had first guaranteed, and then repaid, on behalf of Andrew J. Stein’s successful campaign for New York City Council president, Mr. Trump made no bones about the move. “I was under the impression that I was getting my money back,” he told the New York State Commission on Government Integrity.
Imagine if this were Hillary Clinton. There would be calls for jail time, public floggings and a town hanging. But for Trump? He's just a businessman...that's what they do...and now he's calling attention to a broken system.
Except not really.
In the Florida case, Mr. Trump is accused of using a large and timely political donation in 2013 to ward off a potentially thorny investigation by Ms. Bondi’s office: Days before the donation was made, The Orlando Sentinel reported that the New York State attorney general’s office had sued Trump University and noted that Ms. Bondi’s office was weighing whether to join in that litigation.
A political aide to Ms. Bondi told The Associated Press earlier this year that the attorney general had solicited the donation in a conversation with Mr. Trump weeks before The Sentinel’s article. But Mr. Trump made the donation from his charitable foundation, in violation of tax regulations, and paid the penalty, as first reported by The Washington Post last week.
So, here we have Donald Trump behaving like...a politician? That really does not fit with his image as an outsider who wants to change politics as usual. Worse, and unlike the Hilz, there is clear evidence that violated the law.
The question now is...will all of the media cover this because it's not a "Crazy Donald" story?
Tuesday, September 06, 2016
50 State Poll
The Washington Post's recent 50 state poll is a veritable treasure trove for political junkies like me. The first thing that jumps out at me is how the electoral map has shifted quite a bit based on the candidates themselves. The race is much tighter in rust belt states which is good news for Trump. Yet Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error in places like Texas, Mississippi, Georgia and Arizona. What does all this mean?
Well, this was a poll based on 74,000 REGISTERED voters, not likely voters. This makes a huge difference and probably means that Trump is safe in Texas and Mississippi for example. Conversely, this means that Hillary Clinton is safe in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well. This poll does, however, show that Hillary Clinton does have a substantial lead over Donald Trump and is basically a couple of states away from 270. Hillary has 244 and Donald has 126 in the solid and leaning category. That's pretty bad.
Here's the video that breaks it all down.
Well, this was a poll based on 74,000 REGISTERED voters, not likely voters. This makes a huge difference and probably means that Trump is safe in Texas and Mississippi for example. Conversely, this means that Hillary Clinton is safe in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well. This poll does, however, show that Hillary Clinton does have a substantial lead over Donald Trump and is basically a couple of states away from 270. Hillary has 244 and Donald has 126 in the solid and leaning category. That's pretty bad.
Here's the video that breaks it all down.
Monday, September 05, 2016
The Biggest Challenge For Hillary Clinton
With the final stretch of the 2016 Election about to begin tomorrow, Hillary Clinton's biggest challenge is convincing the American public that she is more trustworthy than her image is currently showing. Today's piece in the Times is most illustrative of this.
The first debate presents her with a moment to make amends, as best she can, for all of this and show the country that she has the moralistic fortitude to lead this country. Donald Trump is going to attempt to make this his moment as well and I think he may surprise some people. He may very well chuck all the personal attacks, which is what Hillary and her people are preparing for, and merely talk about how great he is and what he will do to help people less fortunate than himself. There may even be a touch of humility in some stuff he says. His "unpredictability" could be being more normal. Of course, I could be wrong about all of this and he will simply go on with his anger, hate and fear.
Regardless, she needs to answer the email question the way she did when she was interviewed recently by the Morning Joe team.
"Every time I attempt to explain my email server, I end up sounding like I am making excuses. So, no excuses. I made a mistake and I was careless. I apologize."
She could add on to this by saying the following.
"I make no excuses and have learned that, as president, I will have to be more careful to handle sensitive, government material, classified or not. And I promise you that I will."
When she is asked about her foundation, her response should be as follows.
"Though our foundation helps many people around the world, myself and my family can help many more if I become president. So, the foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative will be folded into the Gates Foundation and they can continue on with our work. All documents relating to the foundation and my meetings as Secretary of State will be made public, if they haven't already, for anyone to pour over."
Throughout the entire debate, she should also explain how she learned from her mistakes and how that reflection made her a stronger and more solid person. After all, Trump isn't going to admit any of this so the contrast will be clear between the two candidates. People tend to identify more with leaders who are like them.
Everyone makes mistakes. If Hillary shows us that she is like the rest of us, she eliminates the perception that she is above common folk and that talking point evaporates.
“What am I supposed to do if I don’t like him and I don’t trust her?” a millennial black woman in Ohio asked. “Choose between being stabbed and being shot? No way!”
“She was part of the whole problem that started sending blacks to jail,” a young black man, also from Ohio, observed about Mrs. Clinton.
“He’s a racist, and she is a liar, so really what’s the difference in choosing both or choosing neither?” another young black woman from Ohio said.
And this is from black millenials, a group she will likely carry over Donald Trump. Not good at all. So what does she need to do?The first debate presents her with a moment to make amends, as best she can, for all of this and show the country that she has the moralistic fortitude to lead this country. Donald Trump is going to attempt to make this his moment as well and I think he may surprise some people. He may very well chuck all the personal attacks, which is what Hillary and her people are preparing for, and merely talk about how great he is and what he will do to help people less fortunate than himself. There may even be a touch of humility in some stuff he says. His "unpredictability" could be being more normal. Of course, I could be wrong about all of this and he will simply go on with his anger, hate and fear.
Regardless, she needs to answer the email question the way she did when she was interviewed recently by the Morning Joe team.
"Every time I attempt to explain my email server, I end up sounding like I am making excuses. So, no excuses. I made a mistake and I was careless. I apologize."
She could add on to this by saying the following.
"I make no excuses and have learned that, as president, I will have to be more careful to handle sensitive, government material, classified or not. And I promise you that I will."
When she is asked about her foundation, her response should be as follows.
"Though our foundation helps many people around the world, myself and my family can help many more if I become president. So, the foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative will be folded into the Gates Foundation and they can continue on with our work. All documents relating to the foundation and my meetings as Secretary of State will be made public, if they haven't already, for anyone to pour over."
Throughout the entire debate, she should also explain how she learned from her mistakes and how that reflection made her a stronger and more solid person. After all, Trump isn't going to admit any of this so the contrast will be clear between the two candidates. People tend to identify more with leaders who are like them.
Everyone makes mistakes. If Hillary shows us that she is like the rest of us, she eliminates the perception that she is above common folk and that talking point evaporates.
Friday, September 02, 2016
Good Words
From First Read: “More than two months before Election Day, it’s already happening: Downballot Republicans and top GOP leaders are dumping Trump. There was no public memo or major announcement in August — just actions…”
“But here’s the bad news: After Labor Day, almost every single Democrat in a House and Senate race will be tying their GOP opponent to Trump. So up and down the ticket, hundreds of millions of dollars in Democratic messaging will be ‘Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.’ And when there’s been that kind of disparity in messaging when one party is talking about one thing and the opposition is talking about everything else — see 2006 and 2008 (‘Bush, Bush, Bush’) or 2010 and 2014 (‘Obama, Obama, Obama’) — there’s been a wave. November is going to go one of two ways. One, this kind of GOP separation from Trump is going to work like we saw in 1996. Or two, the bottom is going to fall out for the Republican Party.”
I'm thinking it's going to be the latter...:)
“But here’s the bad news: After Labor Day, almost every single Democrat in a House and Senate race will be tying their GOP opponent to Trump. So up and down the ticket, hundreds of millions of dollars in Democratic messaging will be ‘Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.’ And when there’s been that kind of disparity in messaging when one party is talking about one thing and the opposition is talking about everything else — see 2006 and 2008 (‘Bush, Bush, Bush’) or 2010 and 2014 (‘Obama, Obama, Obama’) — there’s been a wave. November is going to go one of two ways. One, this kind of GOP separation from Trump is going to work like we saw in 1996. Or two, the bottom is going to fall out for the Republican Party.”
I'm thinking it's going to be the latter...:)
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Debate Prep?
The Times has a very interesting article up about how the respective Trump and Clinton camps are preparing for the first debate. It looks like the Donald is going to wing it. Can't wait!
This was my favorite bit from the piece.
“Trump has severe attention problems and simply cannot take in complex information — he will be unable to practice for these debates,” said Mr. Schwartz, who was the subject of a New Yorker profile last month that portrayed Mr. Trump as a charlatan. “Trump will bring nothing but his bluster to the debates. He’ll use sixth-grade language, he will repeat himself many times, he won’t complete sentences, and he won’t say anything of substance.”
All of the words I've bolded perfectly describe pretty much every right wing blog and right wing blog commenter out there. He's definitely their guy!!
This was my favorite bit from the piece.
“Trump has severe attention problems and simply cannot take in complex information — he will be unable to practice for these debates,” said Mr. Schwartz, who was the subject of a New Yorker profile last month that portrayed Mr. Trump as a charlatan. “Trump will bring nothing but his bluster to the debates. He’ll use sixth-grade language, he will repeat himself many times, he won’t complete sentences, and he won’t say anything of substance.”
All of the words I've bolded perfectly describe pretty much every right wing blog and right wing blog commenter out there. He's definitely their guy!!
Thursday, August 25, 2016
The "Final Stand" of the Angry Old White Man
There's a big myth out there that Donald Trump has galvanized a whole mess of new conservative voters that will put him over the top come November 8th. David Wasserman over at 538 breaks down why this doesn't really matter and is, in fact, a myth.
There’s no doubt Trump compelled hundreds of thousands of conservative voters to switch their registrations to Republican to vote for him in closed primaries, accelerating these voters’ exodus from formal Democratic affiliation. But do they constitute a surge of new November voters? Not so much. It’s likely that most of these party switchers were already voting Republican.
He then follows this assertion with quite a bit of data. Check it out!
There’s no doubt Trump compelled hundreds of thousands of conservative voters to switch their registrations to Republican to vote for him in closed primaries, accelerating these voters’ exodus from formal Democratic affiliation. But do they constitute a surge of new November voters? Not so much. It’s likely that most of these party switchers were already voting Republican.
He then follows this assertion with quite a bit of data. Check it out!
Friday, August 19, 2016
Hitting Reset Again
The Trump 2016 campaign hit the reset button yet again with the hiring of Brietbart News' Stephen Bannon as its chief executive. Trump also brought Kellyanne Conway on board to be the campaign manager. I guess I'm not sure what the difference is between the two roles. Paul Manafort just resigned as campaign manager so that probably helps with the confusion.
So, basically an already failing campaign now has two bosses instead of one. Bannon has vowed to "let Trump be Trump" but that has actually caused far more damage than anyone in the organization would care to admit.
Donald Trump’s Crucial Pillar of Support, White Men, Shows Weakness
I agree with Nate Silver on this one. Trump is doubling down on a losing strategy. He looked a little more polished yesterday, which the media is attributing to Ms. Conway, but this is only one day. Can he actually sustain this? Worse for him, though, is the fact that his main base of support loves it when he is NOT polished and makes offensive comments.
If he becomes someone else, will they lose their interest?
So, basically an already failing campaign now has two bosses instead of one. Bannon has vowed to "let Trump be Trump" but that has actually caused far more damage than anyone in the organization would care to admit.
Donald Trump’s Crucial Pillar of Support, White Men, Shows Weakness
I agree with Nate Silver on this one. Trump is doubling down on a losing strategy. He looked a little more polished yesterday, which the media is attributing to Ms. Conway, but this is only one day. Can he actually sustain this? Worse for him, though, is the fact that his main base of support loves it when he is NOT polished and makes offensive comments.
If he becomes someone else, will they lose their interest?
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Watch The Senate Slip Away
538 has a piece up about how Trump is dragging down GOP candidates for Senate in tossup states.
Check it out
At this point, it seems likely that the Dems will take back the Senate. But by how much?
Check it out
| AUG. 3 MARGIN | AUG. 15 MARGIN | CHANGE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STATE | TRUMP | GOP SENATE CANDIDATE | TRUMP | GOP SENATE CANDIDATE | TRUMP | GOP SENATE CANDIDATE |
| N.H. | -2 | +2 | -11 | -5 | -9 | -7 |
| Illinois | -18 | -1 | -20 | -7 | -2 | -6 |
| Pennsylvania | -6 | +2 | -10 | -2 | -4 | -4 |
| N.C. | -1 | +4 | -5 | +1 | -4 | -3 |
| Wisconsin | -9 | -8 | -12 | -11 | -3 | -3 |
| Nevada | -3 | +3 | -4 | +2 | -1 | -1 |
| Florida | -4 | +5 | -5 | +5 | -1 | 0 |
| Ohio | -4 | +4 | -6 | +6 | -2 | +2 |
| Average | -3.3 | -2.8 | ||||
At this point, it seems likely that the Dems will take back the Senate. But by how much?
Sunday, August 14, 2016
Most Talented Presidential Candidate Ever?
I can't think of a better clip that demonstrates the media's Sybil like relationship with Donald Trump.
Now, of course, Halperin thinks Trump is a buffoon. Sheesh...
Now, of course, Halperin thinks Trump is a buffoon. Sheesh...
Saturday, August 13, 2016
Are They Persuadable?
Nate Silver has a piece up about what a Clinton landslide would look like. Given the latest polls, this is indeed an interesting possibility to explore. With all this talk, Republicans are trying to find a way to cut themselves loose from Trump, especially given that the Senate is really, really bad for them right now.
Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and Mark Kirk are toast. Pat Toomey and Kelly Ayotte are looking pretty much the same. Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina are all within striking distance. A big turnout by the Dems to stop Trump will flip at least 2 out of those three states.
Donald Trump continues to be a horrible candidate for the GOP but what other choice do they have? This is who the majority of the people in their party voted for and he represents a common sentiment among conservative, non educated whites who feel as though they are being left behind by the progress in the world. I've written previously about this and think that we ought to just leave them behind given their anger, hate and fear. I mean, they are assholes, no?
Check out this recent discussion on Morning Joe (aka the best political talk show on TV).
I'm definitely going to be picking up Vance's book and checking it out. And I have to admit that their optimism about the Trump folks being persuadable is infectious. Can they be persuaded?
Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and Mark Kirk are toast. Pat Toomey and Kelly Ayotte are looking pretty much the same. Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina are all within striking distance. A big turnout by the Dems to stop Trump will flip at least 2 out of those three states.
Donald Trump continues to be a horrible candidate for the GOP but what other choice do they have? This is who the majority of the people in their party voted for and he represents a common sentiment among conservative, non educated whites who feel as though they are being left behind by the progress in the world. I've written previously about this and think that we ought to just leave them behind given their anger, hate and fear. I mean, they are assholes, no?
Check out this recent discussion on Morning Joe (aka the best political talk show on TV).
I'm definitely going to be picking up Vance's book and checking it out. And I have to admit that their optimism about the Trump folks being persuadable is infectious. Can they be persuaded?
Thursday, August 11, 2016
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
It's The Media's Fault!!
For years, conservatives have foamed at the mouth about victims. They caterwaul about how too few Americans don't take responsibility for their individual actions. Even the Gun Cult will tell you that if someone shoots someone else, it's not their fault. We have to place the blame squarely on the shoulders of the individual.
Yet when it comes to their candidates for office or even their pundits, they are not responsible for their words or actions. It's the liberal media, twisting their words and making it seem like they said something they didn't. Rather than own it, they wriggle away with scapegoating an institution that merely calls them on their bullshit.
Take the latest call from Donald Trump to commit violence in the name of liberty. I say "latest" because he's done this before with protesters at his events. Yesterday, he said the following.
Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish, the Second Amendment. By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know. But I’ll tell you what, that will be a horrible day.
Conservatives have tried to spin this as Trump talking about taking political action to prevent Hillary from getting into office but let's keep in mind that his phrasing suggests that she has already won. That's when the Second Amendment people can step in and it will be horrible. It's pretty clear as to what he is referring. Check out this guy's reaction in the audience.
Rather than apologize for what he suggested and own it, Trump has blamed the media and its bias. Let me make this very, very simple.
No, Donald (and Cult members), it's YOUR fault because YOU said it.
Yet when it comes to their candidates for office or even their pundits, they are not responsible for their words or actions. It's the liberal media, twisting their words and making it seem like they said something they didn't. Rather than own it, they wriggle away with scapegoating an institution that merely calls them on their bullshit.
Take the latest call from Donald Trump to commit violence in the name of liberty. I say "latest" because he's done this before with protesters at his events. Yesterday, he said the following.
Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish, the Second Amendment. By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know. But I’ll tell you what, that will be a horrible day.
Conservatives have tried to spin this as Trump talking about taking political action to prevent Hillary from getting into office but let's keep in mind that his phrasing suggests that she has already won. That's when the Second Amendment people can step in and it will be horrible. It's pretty clear as to what he is referring. Check out this guy's reaction in the audience.
Rather than apologize for what he suggested and own it, Trump has blamed the media and its bias. Let me make this very, very simple.
No, Donald (and Cult members), it's YOUR fault because YOU said it.
Monday, August 08, 2016
Will They Even Listen To One Of Their Own?
If GOP strategist Rick Wilson and I sat down for a beer to discuss ideology, we'd like find very little with which to agree upon. He's a conservative which means he pushes policies that, for the most part, simply don't work in reality.
But his recent column on Donald Trump and how he has to be beaten badly in November in order to save the party is completely accurate. Let's take a look at a few choice cuts, shall we?
A growing number of Americans are coming to the realization that Trump is more than just a political train wreck; he's a real threat to the nation, what with the fear of nuclear weapons and the sweeping power of the federal government in his tiny paws.
I've seen this from the beginning and it's certainly a reflection of where the party has gone. It gives me a great deal of hope for this country that the adults, regardless of their political stripe, see this too.
Those of us who believe, who know, that Trump is dangerous can't just settle for him being beaten in November. We need to ensure that he is on the business end of a decisive, humiliating defeat — so that the terribly divisive forces he has unleashed are delivered a death blow.
Those divisive forces can be defined specifically as the right wing blogger/commenter crowd, formerly the short wave radio folks followed by the email forward peeps. These are the moonbats that honestly define the party today and begin their "expert" analysis with the words, "I'm hearing some things from some people..."
Wilson correctly identifies the key to this election's results. Let's bury these fuckers forever. They are a danger to our country and its progress.
The second reason Trump needs to fall hard in November is that the Party of Lincoln needs a complete, top-to-bottom reset — one that completely purges the Trumpkins who believe racial animus is a governing philosophy and that their ignorant and angry primal screams can ever build a Republican majority. After a pretty decisive loss to Obama in 2012, the Republican Party produced an exhaustive, detailed post-mortem pointing the way forward, focused largely on how to better connect with the growing Latino vote. None of the lessons were actually learned. All the recommendations about fixing the posture of the party have been treated as though they had been printed on toilet paper.
Yeah, what happened to that all improved and reflecting GOP? Well, they realized their base is made of racist assholes who don't want to change. As I have stated previously, it's time to leave them behind. Wilson has a different idea...sort of....
Well, Trump voters, it's your turn. Go get a switch. I'm not going to coddle you and say you're really smart and good people and this is just a misunderstanding. That's just what the PC crowd does on the left. Trumpkins don't deserve a participation trophy for wrecking the party and saddling the nation with Hillary. They made the crazy the enemy of the good, and centered an entire campaign on rage, fear and an eternally shrinking spiral of cult-worship and fanaticism.
I laughed out loud when I saw the PC reference. And "rage, fear?" Hmm...where have I heard that before?:)
So when it's over, Trumpkins, remember: You're not purging us. We're purging you. No more hate and reckless group blame. No more fact-free fearmongering. No more feeding the obese ego of a man who's transparently unfit for the job.
Can they actually do it? Given this...
While Donald Trump was retweeting "White Genocide 1488 Ovenmaster," Clinton's campaign was building data files and contacting swing voters. While Trump was tweeting about "Crooked Hillary," she was having precisely targeted television ads aimed at swing voters in the suburbs of key cities in battleground states appearing at just the right moments. While Trump was depending on red hats and WWE rallies, her people have been going door-to-door by the thousands, knocking, talking, winning hearts and winning votes.
...I'm not sure it's possible.
But his recent column on Donald Trump and how he has to be beaten badly in November in order to save the party is completely accurate. Let's take a look at a few choice cuts, shall we?
A growing number of Americans are coming to the realization that Trump is more than just a political train wreck; he's a real threat to the nation, what with the fear of nuclear weapons and the sweeping power of the federal government in his tiny paws.
I've seen this from the beginning and it's certainly a reflection of where the party has gone. It gives me a great deal of hope for this country that the adults, regardless of their political stripe, see this too.
Those of us who believe, who know, that Trump is dangerous can't just settle for him being beaten in November. We need to ensure that he is on the business end of a decisive, humiliating defeat — so that the terribly divisive forces he has unleashed are delivered a death blow.
Those divisive forces can be defined specifically as the right wing blogger/commenter crowd, formerly the short wave radio folks followed by the email forward peeps. These are the moonbats that honestly define the party today and begin their "expert" analysis with the words, "I'm hearing some things from some people..."
Wilson correctly identifies the key to this election's results. Let's bury these fuckers forever. They are a danger to our country and its progress.
The second reason Trump needs to fall hard in November is that the Party of Lincoln needs a complete, top-to-bottom reset — one that completely purges the Trumpkins who believe racial animus is a governing philosophy and that their ignorant and angry primal screams can ever build a Republican majority. After a pretty decisive loss to Obama in 2012, the Republican Party produced an exhaustive, detailed post-mortem pointing the way forward, focused largely on how to better connect with the growing Latino vote. None of the lessons were actually learned. All the recommendations about fixing the posture of the party have been treated as though they had been printed on toilet paper.
Yeah, what happened to that all improved and reflecting GOP? Well, they realized their base is made of racist assholes who don't want to change. As I have stated previously, it's time to leave them behind. Wilson has a different idea...sort of....
Well, Trump voters, it's your turn. Go get a switch. I'm not going to coddle you and say you're really smart and good people and this is just a misunderstanding. That's just what the PC crowd does on the left. Trumpkins don't deserve a participation trophy for wrecking the party and saddling the nation with Hillary. They made the crazy the enemy of the good, and centered an entire campaign on rage, fear and an eternally shrinking spiral of cult-worship and fanaticism.
I laughed out loud when I saw the PC reference. And "rage, fear?" Hmm...where have I heard that before?:)
So when it's over, Trumpkins, remember: You're not purging us. We're purging you. No more hate and reckless group blame. No more fact-free fearmongering. No more feeding the obese ego of a man who's transparently unfit for the job.
Can they actually do it? Given this...
While Donald Trump was retweeting "White Genocide 1488 Ovenmaster," Clinton's campaign was building data files and contacting swing voters. While Trump was tweeting about "Crooked Hillary," she was having precisely targeted television ads aimed at swing voters in the suburbs of key cities in battleground states appearing at just the right moments. While Trump was depending on red hats and WWE rallies, her people have been going door-to-door by the thousands, knocking, talking, winning hearts and winning votes.
...I'm not sure it's possible.
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