Paul Krugman's recent piece on where Trump gets his support is sheer brilliance. The part I especially enjoyed was this.
The Trump solution would, among other things, deprive the world economy of its most crucial safe asset, U.S. debt, at a time when safe assets are already in short supply.
Right. US debt is still one of the safest assets in the world despite what foams out of the mouth of the old lady debt hystericals.
And I'm still waiting for those debt collectors to come a callin' by the by...:) (he said, wondering the people who caterwaul about our debt even understand who owns it).
Monday, May 16, 2016
Sunday, May 15, 2016
When Did Optimism Become Uncool?
Good question. Given reality, it makes no sense.
Job growth has been strong for five years, with unemployment now below where it was for most of the 1990s, a period some extol as the “good old days.” The American economy is No. 1 by a huge margin, larger than Nos. 2 and 3 (China and Japan) combined. Americans are seven times as productive, per capita, as Chinese citizens. The dollar is the currency the world craves — which means other countries perceive America’s long-term prospects as very good.
Pollution, discrimination, crime and most diseases are in an extended decline; living standards, longevity and education levels continue to rise. The American military is not only the world’s strongest, it is the strongest ever. The United States leads the world in science and engineering, in business innovation, in every aspect of creativity, including the arts. Terrorism is a serious concern, but in the last 15 years, even taking into account Sept. 11, an American is five times more likely to be hit by lightning than to be killed by a terrorist.
Even with all of my concern about gun violence, I still think we, as a planet, are in a far better place than we have EVER been. The rest of the article speaks to many of the reasons why and also delves into the specific facts about behind the pessimism. Very much worth the read.
Job growth has been strong for five years, with unemployment now below where it was for most of the 1990s, a period some extol as the “good old days.” The American economy is No. 1 by a huge margin, larger than Nos. 2 and 3 (China and Japan) combined. Americans are seven times as productive, per capita, as Chinese citizens. The dollar is the currency the world craves — which means other countries perceive America’s long-term prospects as very good.
Pollution, discrimination, crime and most diseases are in an extended decline; living standards, longevity and education levels continue to rise. The American military is not only the world’s strongest, it is the strongest ever. The United States leads the world in science and engineering, in business innovation, in every aspect of creativity, including the arts. Terrorism is a serious concern, but in the last 15 years, even taking into account Sept. 11, an American is five times more likely to be hit by lightning than to be killed by a terrorist.
Even with all of my concern about gun violence, I still think we, as a planet, are in a far better place than we have EVER been. The rest of the article speaks to many of the reasons why and also delves into the specific facts about behind the pessimism. Very much worth the read.
Saturday, May 14, 2016
Friday, May 13, 2016
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Still Not Over 2004
Liberals are classic hand wringers and Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination has only made it worse. Thankfully, we have Michael A. Cohen to calm everyone down.
Four years ago, Mitt Romney lost the presidency by 5 million votes. So for a Republican to win in 2016, the party nominee has to find a way to increase the number of GOP voters. The problem for Trump is that he’s moving in the opposite direction. Take for example, Hispanic voters. In 2012, Romney lost them 71-27 percent. Trump today has an 81 percent unfavorability rating among Hispanics. Among African-Americans it is 91 percent. Considering that nonwhite voters made up 28 percent of the electorate in 2012 — and could be an even higher percentage this year — that means Trump starts the campaign at a huge, nearly insurmountable disadvantage.
There's also this line of thought...a very fallacious line of thought...that goes something like this: No one thought Trump could win the nomination and he did. So, that means that if no one thinks he will win the presidency, he will win the presidency.
Somewhere Chris Mooney is massively rolling his eyes...:)
Four years ago, Mitt Romney lost the presidency by 5 million votes. So for a Republican to win in 2016, the party nominee has to find a way to increase the number of GOP voters. The problem for Trump is that he’s moving in the opposite direction. Take for example, Hispanic voters. In 2012, Romney lost them 71-27 percent. Trump today has an 81 percent unfavorability rating among Hispanics. Among African-Americans it is 91 percent. Considering that nonwhite voters made up 28 percent of the electorate in 2012 — and could be an even higher percentage this year — that means Trump starts the campaign at a huge, nearly insurmountable disadvantage.
There's also this line of thought...a very fallacious line of thought...that goes something like this: No one thought Trump could win the nomination and he did. So, that means that if no one thinks he will win the presidency, he will win the presidency.
Somewhere Chris Mooney is massively rolling his eyes...:)
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Pants Pooped!
So, Quinninpac released a poll that showed Hillary Clinton only one point ahead of Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania and four points behind in Ohio. The media and pretty much everyone else has spent the entire day yesterday pooping their pants over the fact that Donald Trump might actually win this thing.
Except that he won't.
In many ways, this poll is a good thing for Hillary Clinton and the voting public in general. If she wants to truly kick his ass, she is going to have to take the angry, old white male vote (see also: the only people really supporting Trump) seriously. A poll like this shows if she fucks around and doesn't start working on her negatives, it could be closer than everyone would like. It also puts the fear of God into people and will motivate even more of them to vote.
Of course, looking at one poll (of registered, not likely voters) is a big mistake. The average of all of the polls gives a better indication of where the race is really at. The Florida polls shows Clinton up by four points. Ohio average has her up three points. Pennsylvania average has her up seven. With the latter, Trump has never led in any of the polls so he really has no chance there.
Keep watching the averages. they aren't really moving that much and that's a good sign for Hillary Clinton.
Except that he won't.
In many ways, this poll is a good thing for Hillary Clinton and the voting public in general. If she wants to truly kick his ass, she is going to have to take the angry, old white male vote (see also: the only people really supporting Trump) seriously. A poll like this shows if she fucks around and doesn't start working on her negatives, it could be closer than everyone would like. It also puts the fear of God into people and will motivate even more of them to vote.
Of course, looking at one poll (of registered, not likely voters) is a big mistake. The average of all of the polls gives a better indication of where the race is really at. The Florida polls shows Clinton up by four points. Ohio average has her up three points. Pennsylvania average has her up seven. With the latter, Trump has never led in any of the polls so he really has no chance there.
Keep watching the averages. they aren't really moving that much and that's a good sign for Hillary Clinton.
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
The Trump Flip Flops Begin
Donald Trump is going to start flip flopping like a frog on a skillet as he pivots before the general election, but today we'll focus on the thing that Trump said completely differentiated him from every other candidate in history: he is really rich.
Remember how Trump said that he would self-fund his campaign, and he wouldn't owe other billionaires anything?
Guess what? He lied!
Donald J. Trump took steps to appropriate much of the Republican National Committee’s financial and political infrastructure for his presidential campaign on Monday, amid signs that he and the party would lag dangerously behind the Democrats in raising money for the general election.He's pretending that he has to do it because the Democrats would win if he didn't. The reality is that he's doing it to cash in. He is going to make money running for president. How is this possible?
Donald Trump hasn't actually spent any money on his campaign. He has been lending it money. Now there's a huge difference: by lending money to his campaign, he can have the campaign repay the loans at a later time, with interest.
Furthermore, a huge amount of his campaign expenditures are paid to Trump owned companies (like his airplane). Trump companies have been charging his campaign to fly him around the company, bringing him home every night to sleep in New York instead of in hotels on the campaign trail. Trump's campaign is paying him for office space in Trump Tower, for meals in his restaurants, etc. Trump's companies' services are much more expensive than other companies' because they're so "luxurious."
When other people start donating money to the Trump campaign (and some suckers have already been doing it!), Trump can use that money to repay the loans he made to the campaign, with interest. Trump will profit handsomely off the nitwits who swallowed his lies about self-funding.
Also remember how Trump said that candidates like Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are beholden to Wall Street because of their close relationships with Goldman Sachs and other banks? Trump just announced who his main fund-raiser is: Steven Mnuchin, who formerly worked at Goldman Sachs and at a firm funded by George Soros. Like Trump, Mnuchin donated to Clinton. And Mnuchin says he has been a personal friend of Trump for 15 years.
So, contrary to everything Trump promised, he's getting into bed with Republican billionaires like Sheldon Adelson who contribute to the Republican Party and who just endorsed Trump, and with Wall Street moneymen.
Oh, but he has to in order to beat Hillary, you say? Well, then, how is he any different than any other politician? It was clear from the beginning that Trump would never be able spend the hundreds of billions of dollars required to run for president (he's actually not very rich -- he's only like the 122nd richest person in America, between two other trust-fund babies you've never head of).
Trump has been conning voters for months about self-funding, knowing full well that in the general election he'd start using other people's money to run, and pay himself back all his loans at a profitable interest rate. That's just smart business, right?
This leads us into Trump's taxes. Trump says that he can't release his taxes because his taxes since 2009 are being audited (he's been audited every year since 2002). Trump hasn't released anything about his taxes at all, and when he does people will be outraged.
My guess is that Trump doesn't pay much in taxes. I'm betting that the vast majority of his personal living expenses are being paid for by the company (since he does business in his own home), so I'm guessing he personally pays nothing for food, rent, travel, entertainment, TVs, cars, furniture, etc., because those are all "business expenses."
Furthermore, I'm betting those phony "business expenses" are used to reduce his company's tax burden. Which means the American taxpayers are footing the bill for Donald Trump's lavish lifestyle.
Finally, I'm guessing that Trump does not pay himself much of a salary. Instead, I'm betting that the majority of his income is paid to him in forms that are counted as capital gains. Which means stock rewards, qualified dividends and other rich-man gimmicks that regular human beings can't take advantage of.
Being rich was supposed to the thing that made Donald Trump a legit candidate. But it turns out it's all just a scam to make Trump richer.
The Man Baby
Of course, Trump is merely an extension of the right wing blog commenter mentality. They are all man babies.
Monday, May 09, 2016
Sunday, May 08, 2016
The Trump Speech We Will Never Hear
Reprinted in its entirety from here.
Thank you. I am almost humbled by the HUGE support you’ve shown for my campaign. Tremendous support. Tremendous. As I said when I announced my candidacy, I entered this to win, and I knew I would.
Why? Because from states and towns large and small, from one end of the country to the other, my message has resonated. I’ve tapped into a deep-seated anger that until now only bubbled up around the edges of peoples’ lives. But thanks to my campaign, this blinding rage has exploded into full view for everyone to see.
And this is why I, Donald J. Trump, now announce, before all of my loyal delegates and millions of supporters … that I must decline your nomination.
Because, in fact, my campaign hasn’t been about tapping into those emotions. It’s been about exposing the ability of someone like me — a media-savvy celebrity billionaire — to exploit them, playing on your fear and resentment by disseminating lies and fabrications, by demonizing minorities of all kinds, by appealing to your lowest instincts, and by leveraging peoples’ innate desire to blame and to follow without questioning or critical thinking.
I confess that from the start we plotted my candidacy as an experiment. We meticulously scheduled each and every gaffe, insult, slur, confrontation, complaint, mistake and outlandish tweet to build upon the last. The goal was to test just how far a seemingly unhinged, uninformed, incurious, intellectually lazy, yet supremely confident candidate could go.
Honestly, we never thought we’d make it this far. Third place, maybe — folding our tent after Super Tuesday was our best guess. And yet, we kept creating believers, and from Little Marco to Lyin’ Ted, our competition kept rolling over. The more irrational I got, the higher my poll numbers soared. So with the help of an all-too-often compliant, sensation-driven media, I kept it going. And here we are.
In other words, my campaign has been one HUGE scam. Only, unlike my university and my steaks, this one aimed to prove a bigger point.
How did this happen? Is it because America is always losing? Is it because Obama hates America? Is it because we need to take our country back?
No. It’s because too many Americans are ignorant. I mean, too many Americans choose to ignore facts, because the lies and myths that oppose those facts make them feel better. They ignore facts like:
• Planned Parenthood access reduces the number of abortions in America.
• Our economy isn’t a disaster.
• The Affordable Care Act, while not perfect, is helping millions of people.
• President Obama was born in Hawaii, and I never had evidence otherwise.
• America is still the wealthiest country on the planet.
• Global warming is caused by human activity.
• We can’t build a wall and have Mexico pay for it.
• We can’t ban all Muslims from entering the country, and
• I have no idea what “until someone figures this whole thing out” means.
Now, I implore you, my supporters, to look in the mirror and ask yourselves: What other big decisions do you make in life that are driven by anger? Who do you allow your kids to blame for their problems? What name-calling bully have you ever held up to your kids as a role model?
Fortunately, another thing my candidacy has shown me is that, with this platform, I have the opportunity to do some good. So before I leave I would like to announce three things:
First, I will be donating all the contributions to my campaign to public school systems across the country — for better materials, smaller classes and more teachers. Ignorance isn’t bliss. And teaching and learning shouldn’t be so hard.
Second, I want to sincerely apologize to Michelle Fields, Carly Fiorina, Megyn Kelly, Heidi Cruz, Rosie O’Donnell and any other women I’ve personally insulted or belittled. My behavior toward you was unbecoming of a grown man.
Third, I am asking my delegates to draft and support Sen. Susan Collins as our party’s nominee. She is the most decent, humble, reasonable and intelligent Republican woman I’ve ever met. She’ll make a great president.
It’s been a scary but revealing ride. You owe yourselves someone better than me — someone truly tremendous. Now go make me proud.
Thank you.
No Mass Exodus
I live in a state that has high taxes and government spending. In 2013, our Democratic governor raised taxes on the wealthy and increased spending even more. Despite predictions that this sort of policy would result in a poor economy, Minnesota is doing quite well. Our unemployment rate is 3.7% which basically means if you aren't working, you don't want to have a job. We have a state surplus of over $1 billion dollars. Our GDP is $255 billion dollars.
Today, our state discovered that Republican predictions of a mass exodus of higher taxes on the wealthy have not come to pass.
Critics predicted that the ultra-affluent would flee after Gov. Mark Dayton secured 2013 passage of a new income tax tier of 9.85 percent on individuals who make more than $156,000 a year. But the latest data show that the number of people who filed tax returns with over $1 million in income grew by 15.3 percent in the year after the tax passed, while the new top tier of taxpayers grew by 6 percent.
Grew, you say? Hmm...maybe people like having a better place to send their kids to school and nice roads to drive on.
Let's compare my state to Wisconsin, where Scott Walker has enacted the exact opposite policies of Governor Dayton. The Wisconsin unemployment rate is 4.4%. They have a budget shortfall of $1.8 billion dollars which has forced cuts to the University of Wisconsin system to comply with the balanced budget law. Their GDP is $230 billion dollars. Wisconsin ranks among the top states people are leaving.
I wonder why...:)
Today, our state discovered that Republican predictions of a mass exodus of higher taxes on the wealthy have not come to pass.
Critics predicted that the ultra-affluent would flee after Gov. Mark Dayton secured 2013 passage of a new income tax tier of 9.85 percent on individuals who make more than $156,000 a year. But the latest data show that the number of people who filed tax returns with over $1 million in income grew by 15.3 percent in the year after the tax passed, while the new top tier of taxpayers grew by 6 percent.
Grew, you say? Hmm...maybe people like having a better place to send their kids to school and nice roads to drive on.
Let's compare my state to Wisconsin, where Scott Walker has enacted the exact opposite policies of Governor Dayton. The Wisconsin unemployment rate is 4.4%. They have a budget shortfall of $1.8 billion dollars which has forced cuts to the University of Wisconsin system to comply with the balanced budget law. Their GDP is $230 billion dollars. Wisconsin ranks among the top states people are leaving.
I wonder why...:)
Saturday, May 07, 2016
BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Republicans consider Clinton over Trump
Meet the Republicans Who Say They’ll Vote for Hillary Clinton
Clinton set to assemble ‘Republicans for Hillary’ to lure Trump skeptics
Laura Bush hints she would rather vote for Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump
I can't wait to see the first polls of the swing states for Clinton v Trump:)
Meet the Republicans Who Say They’ll Vote for Hillary Clinton
Clinton set to assemble ‘Republicans for Hillary’ to lure Trump skeptics
Laura Bush hints she would rather vote for Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump
I can't wait to see the first polls of the swing states for Clinton v Trump:)
Thursday, May 05, 2016
Paul Ryan to Donald Trump: Nope
Paul Ryan is just not ready to back Donald Trump. Hilarious. I can't remember a time when a Speaker of the House immediately came out against the nominee in their own party. Does anyone out there think the GOP is in any way stable right now?
Wow.
Wow.
Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Rough Justice for the Alberta Tar Sands
While Donald Trump is still claiming that global warming is a hoax, Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada is being evacuated due to a massive forest fire:
Tens of thousands of people have fled north and south.Note the "32 C" temperature reading: that's 90 degrees Fahrenheit, on May 4th, in Alberta, Canada, which is really far north, at 57 degrees latitude. It's just another indication that global warming is really happening, and burning fossil fuels -- like those extracted from the tar sands right there in Alberta -- is causing the northern latitudes to heat up very quickly.
Fuelled by soaring temperatures that hit 32 C and tinder-dry forest, the fire broached the city limits and by 6:20 p.m. a mandatory evacuation order was issued for the entire city.
“Today has been a devastating day. We have had explosive fire conditions on the landscape brought on by extremely high temperatures” and low relative humidity, Bernie Schmitte, wildfire manager at Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, said Tuesday night during a news conference.
“The fire is still out of control,” Schmitte said. “We have been challenged on many fronts as the fire came through the community. It has entered the community and it has gone through the community.”
Officials have accounted for about 53,000 people, including 17,000 people north of the city, 8,000 in Anzac, 9,000 in Lac La Biche, and 18,000 in Edmonton. Fort McMurray has population of 83,000. “This is not an exact science,” one official said when asked about the discrepancy.
There's a sort of rough justice here: the oil extracted from the tar sands is some of the dirtiest there is (it's the crap they wanted to pipe into the US through the Keystone XL pipeline). The area has been hammered economically in recent months because of the low price of oil.
If you're superstitious or religious, you might be inclined to blame this on an angry mother earth, karma, or divine retribution. In reality, it's simple, straightforward and very predictable atmospheric physics.
Like the climate refugees being forced out of their homes in Louisiana due to rising sea levels, the people Fort McMurray are losing their homes to our insatiable thirst for oil.
The Fallout From Indiana
With Donald Trump's resounding victory in yesterday's Indiana primary, the general election has officially taken shape. Ted Cruz is out. Kasich has zero chance of getting anywhere even in a contested convention. Ladies and gentlemen...
Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for president.
I can't think of a better example of the GOP today. Donald Trump is angry, hateful, willfully ignorant, adolescent, racist, bigoted, and highly unintelligent. He is the most unqualified candidate in the history of presidential elections and he's been fueled by voters who mirror his completely false perception of reality. Conservatives are getting exactly what they want.
He also represents proof positive of one of my running theories. Conservatives want someone who is massively authoritarian because they loves themselves an aristocratic structure where the non whites know their place. Trump was so popular in the South because he reminds folks of the plantation owner lording over his minions and expecting tribute from the "less-thans."
Even though Bernie Sanders won last night in Indiana, Hillary Clinton will still win the Democratic nomination. So it's going to be Clinton v Trump. I'm looking forward to the slew of polls likely to come out in the next few weeks that show just how much Trump is going to get his ass kicked. Worse for Republicans are the down ticket candidates who now have to run way from Trump if they are in a toss up race.
With Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, the Republicans can wave buh-bye to the Senate.
Will the GOP learn its lesson? I doubt it. They will likely stomp their feet and whine about not nominating a "real" conservative. They'll heap blame on Trump but it's really the voters that are the problem. Their base is so fractured largely due to the Tea Party who seemingly morphed into Trump supporters.
The only issue faced by the Democrats is replicating what will likely be massive turnout in the fall in the off year elections. Why can't Democrats vote in the years that matter? This is why the GOP has taken over state house and local governments. When 35-40 percent of voters turnout in the midterms, that means only old, white people are voting. Translation: GOP victories.
In advance of what will surely be ear to ear smiles from fresh polls, here, once again, is my map for the fall election.
And I think I'm being generous to Trump!
Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for president.
I can't think of a better example of the GOP today. Donald Trump is angry, hateful, willfully ignorant, adolescent, racist, bigoted, and highly unintelligent. He is the most unqualified candidate in the history of presidential elections and he's been fueled by voters who mirror his completely false perception of reality. Conservatives are getting exactly what they want.
He also represents proof positive of one of my running theories. Conservatives want someone who is massively authoritarian because they loves themselves an aristocratic structure where the non whites know their place. Trump was so popular in the South because he reminds folks of the plantation owner lording over his minions and expecting tribute from the "less-thans."
Even though Bernie Sanders won last night in Indiana, Hillary Clinton will still win the Democratic nomination. So it's going to be Clinton v Trump. I'm looking forward to the slew of polls likely to come out in the next few weeks that show just how much Trump is going to get his ass kicked. Worse for Republicans are the down ticket candidates who now have to run way from Trump if they are in a toss up race.
With Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, the Republicans can wave buh-bye to the Senate.
Will the GOP learn its lesson? I doubt it. They will likely stomp their feet and whine about not nominating a "real" conservative. They'll heap blame on Trump but it's really the voters that are the problem. Their base is so fractured largely due to the Tea Party who seemingly morphed into Trump supporters.
The only issue faced by the Democrats is replicating what will likely be massive turnout in the fall in the off year elections. Why can't Democrats vote in the years that matter? This is why the GOP has taken over state house and local governments. When 35-40 percent of voters turnout in the midterms, that means only old, white people are voting. Translation: GOP victories.
In advance of what will surely be ear to ear smiles from fresh polls, here, once again, is my map for the fall election.
And I think I'm being generous to Trump!
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