Boy was I wrong. And you know what? I think it's time for me to stop being such cynic. I made a promise to my in laws that I am happily going to keep: I will never make fun of Iowa again.Folks, the message from last night's caucus was about change. The people of the United States of America are tired of the same old bullshit. They turned out in record numbers to send a message to Washington. In my father in laws town alone they had ten times the amount of caucus goers. Memo to the Bush regime: people don't like you. In fact, they hate you and what you have done to this great nation. Iowa has spoken.
They want to be able to make a difference again. Words cannot describe how happy I am being wrong.
I thought that money would outweigh faith and I was wrong. But Mike Huckabee, outspent by Romney 15 to 1, won the Republican Iowa caucus. True, Huckabee and I disagree on many things but he is a good man with his heart in the right place. In some ways, as I watched him give his victory speech last night, he reminded me of a sort of JFK for the religious right. He is saying all the right things, mainly because he actually believes them. I think he is going to do much better in New Hampshire than anyone suspects.
Romney needs to win New Hampshire. If he doesn't, he is through. He put everything into these first two states. If I were Thompson, I would be embarrassed. John McCain, a man who ran a lazier campaign in Iowa than ol' Fred, is tied for third with him. Hee Hee!!
And then there is the Senator from Illinois...wow. I listened to him speak last night and I heard Jack, Bobby, and Dr. King. I cried. The torch has been passed. His trouncing of Hillary did my heart proud and it shows that people want a candidate who is going to change things. They want someone new, someone young, someone warm, and someone honest....four things Hillary is not and never will be. Now we are onto the real test. If Obama can place even a close second in New Hampshire, it will be a great race to Super Tuesday on February 5th. Edwards has to do something in New Hampshire or he is done. I suspect his defeat in Iowa is ringing more deep than we know at present. If Hillary somehow manages to lose New Hampshire, she is done.
And the conservative slime ball machine will begin shitting themselves on a daily basis. Who will they have to crucify? I heard Rush Limbaugh say it best last night on Fox: the campaign will be about the issues. That's right, bitch. If my guy gets the nomination for the Dems, bring it on!
Are you scared yet? You should be....
8 comments:
I don't know if you are reading, well well well, but I agree with anon. 2 out of 6 isn't bad. And at least mark has the courage to put himself out there.
And can you blame him for thinking that about Iowa? Sorry, I have only been reading this blog for a few months but he seems pretty well read and astute to me.
This is a response to Well, well, well left in the post below this one:
Mark is right, conservatives do make up insane, idiotic bullshit and pass it off as fact. The difference between mc and them is that Mark was making a prediction based on demographics and polls. He was wrong. So what? They, of course, are never wrong or will ever admit it.
I think that well well well sound an awful lot like crabmaster scratch
Sorry downtown. That post from well well well was put up at 12:30 AM last night. I was at The Times bar in Minneapolis at that time last night. I'm either crab or last in line on this blog.
Congrats to the candidates who won last night. Rememeber - Gary Hart and Pat Robertson also won in Iowa as well. The big tamale will be Feb 5...that's the day I will pay attention to.
I will say one thing to Mark though - Bush isn't going to be on the ballot this year. Yes, people are sick of him. The 2004 election was a referendum on Iraq and John Kerry is still known as Senator Kerry.
Going back to something well, well well said, should I believe that "people hate Bush" just as much as I should believe that Iowa democrats are racists who wouldn't vote for Obama? Sorry Jane - that one wasn't passed off as a prediction by Mark - that was passed off as fact and it turned out to be just a generalization, and an inaccurate one at that.
Can any of you convince me that the statement "They don't like black people" is a prediction based on polls? I guess it's ok to accuse large groups of people of being racists or bigots based solely on where they live. When proven wrong just say "So what" and "I'm happy to be wrong" on the internet. To me, "making fun of people" and "calling them racist" are 2 mutually exclusive concepts.
I grew up right across the Mississippi river from Davenport, Iowa...lived there for 26 years. Take the number of people from Iowa that Mark knows. Multiply that number by 5, then you'll have the number of Iowans I know.
Just call me a name and move on. But before you call me a name, be sure to put up your healthcare plan for this nation.
Thank you, drive through.
As of right now, this is how I see things playing out: Edwards needed Iowa, he spent all his money and all his time campaigning there. He doesn't have enough infrastructure, or money to compete in NH, I don't see Edwards placing anything but a distant third in NH, its a two-person race there. Edwards has a shot in SC depending on how Obama's momentum holds up and how SC reacts to his surge. Hillary will be 1st or 2nd in NH and has enough money to keep going for awhile. Edwards is most likely among the three to fall behind first and drop out first.
Hillary needs to hang on until Super Tuesday. Her best shot is keeping in the race, she can't get blown out and has to keep ahead of Edwards, until we get to primaries where Obama hasn't organized the youth/independent vote as well as he has in the early primary states. Her core supporters (older women) generally go to the primaries/caucuses in huge numbers already.
Obama needs to get all he can out of this momentum and start pulling in more typical caucus goers. He can't rely on having massive turnouts to win. If he doesn't already have roots in the Super Tuesday states, he could be upset by Hillary that night. It would be dangerous for Obama to see Clinton drop first, most of her supporters would go to Edwards. I don't think this is likely. More likely is if Edwards drops first, most of his would go to Obama. If Edwards comes in third in SC he's more or less out, which I think is very possible.
At the moment is seems like everything is lining up for Obama and I am very happy about that.
My mistake, last in line, it's just the you all sound so similar it's hard for me to distinguish.
In my opinion, both of you are wrong about mc. And clearly didn't read or understand what he was saying.
Hey, anyone going to ask a real Iowan about this? Anyone remember me?
First of all, last in line, Mark knows more Iowans than you think. We all wish he would come visit us here more. Maybe now he will that his man won Iowa.
I caucussed for Giulianni, very much in the minority, but I am holding out hope for the later states. This election is a fight for the Republican soul and I hope that he does win because he is the only chance we have of beating the Dems.
As far as the racist thing goes, I am ashamed to admit that it is true. The N word flies around a lot in my town and in the other cities I travel to. Mostly it's my family and I try to talk to them but they won't listen. People fly the Confederate flag sometimes in our town, which is a symbol for the school, but still it's in bad taste.
I am happy Obama made history. It really shows that younger people made it out to caucus and here's to hoping for a change in racial views but I really don't want him to win because he is all wrong on the issues.
"you all sound so similar it's hard for me to distinguish."
...and democrats/liberals are all independent thinkers? On Tuesday I asked Mark why the national polls showed Hillary with a 20 point lead over Obama he said it was because people like Al Sharpton and the big money types on the left told their followers who to vote for and it was Hillary. Doesn't sound like independent, rational thought to me...sounds like a flock of sheep.
Iowa Kid, based on the results of the caucus it seems like the non-racists outdid the racists last night. I'm just going off the results of the caucus and to a lesser extent the several dozen Iowans I grew up with and stilll keep in touch with to this day.
For the record - I am not saying that racism doesn't exist.
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