Early Look at The Senate Races 2010

The Senate races this year are certainly going to be interesting. While it's fairly certain the Democrats are going to lose a few seats, it's highly unlikely that the GOP will take back the Senate. The New York Times has a great overview of the Senate Race along with some seriously cool features. Here's my take.

Right now the Dems have 59 seats in the Senate. They can say goodbye to North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Ohio, and Missouri. That puts them at 54. The GOP will hold on to New Hampshire and Louisiana despite the latter being held by David "Ladies of the Evening" Vitter. Sex scandals and seeing prostitutes just don't have the bite that they used to...no pun intended. So, at 54-46, what about the rest?

The GOP really blew it in Florida and my money's on Charlie Crist. The state went 60 percent Dem in the 2006 election and Crist has the name recognition and experience. Add in the fact that he is now and independent and will likely caucus with the Dems which means Kendrick Meek is SOL. So is Rubio for that matter. This is one of four examples of how the GOP moved farther to the right and why it will, in all likelihood, cost them.

The other three are Kentucky, Colorado, and Nevada. Nominating Rand Paul was a huge mistake. Kidnapping a woman and forcing her to smoke pot? That will not go over well. And look at the numbers in Kentucky. That's a large turnout for the Dems in the primary. In addition, look at the votes from the last three cycles. 47 percent in the blue column? That's much more than I would've expected in a solid red state. If Conway plays his cards right and plays to centrist issues, he could pull it off.

In Colorado, the GOP have a Rand like problem with Ken Buck. Mr. High Heels and Birthers are Crazy is going to be a real turnoff for large swaths of voters. I think Bennett hangs on here.

Then we have Harry Reid. The best thing that could've happened to him was Sharon Engle. Reid was, for all intents and purposes, done this year. Now he is in a dead heat with Engle who has ruminated on second amendment solutions for our country as well as dismantling entitlements like Social Security. Reid and the Dems must be salivating at the prospect of debates which will surely favor Reid and his calm (see: glass of warm milk at a reading of the Dewey Decimal System) manner. Add in the fact that Reid and Wayne LaPierre are good friends and I say Reid holds on.

I can't see Delaware, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Wisconsin, California or Washington going red. I know there are a lot of wishful thinkers out there but if you look closely at how the Dems are organized in these states, it just won't happen. Add in the fact the Feingold in Wisconsin, for example, wins in districts that have never voted for a blue presidential candidate in their history. Anomalies certainly abound.

So, I'm sticking with my prediction of 5 losses in the Senate. If Crist and Conway win, that's only 3 net losses but I am only human. I'll allow myself two mistakes in my other predictions.