Is Pence on the Outs?

Just after last week's election, Donald Trump asked Mike Pence, his current vice president, to be his vice president:

“Mike, will you be my running mate?” Mr. Trump asked Vice President Pence, who stood up, raised his hand, and nodded.

“Will you? Thank you. O.K., good,” the president said. “That was unexpected, but I feel very fine.”

It was very weird, but I knew exactly what it meant: it was the kiss of death. Trump is going to dump Pence in 2020, or maybe sooner.

Why? He doesn't trust Pence. Precisely because Pence is trustworthy. I am certain that Trump absolutely hates Pence. Notice how every other person in Trump's administration is somehow corrupt or crooked? Mike Pence is the only exception.

A typical example is Trump's choice for attorney general, Matt Whitaker. Whitaker served on the board of a company that scammed would-be inventors out of millions of dollars. Whitaker would threaten with his status as a former US attorney when customers complained about being screwed. The company was shut down by the FTC in March 2017, and was under investigation by the FBI during the period Whitaker acted on behalf of the company. Litigation is ongoing, which means that Whitaker has an inherent conflict of interest as attorney general.

Pence, on the other hand, tries so hard to keep on the straight and narrow that he won't eat dinner alone with a woman other than his wife, or have drinks with another woman unless his wife is there. This earned Pence heaps of criticism and ridicule from all sides when it came out last year.

Is Pence pussy-whipped? Is he so out of control that he doesn't trust himself alone with another woman? Is he a terrible drunk who gets all handsy? Is he a closet homosexual who secretly hates women trapped in a marriage of convenience with a nutty religious woman?

It's probably a good policy not to go dine alone with women socially. It's definitely a good idea not to drink at parties without your wife. Or ever. Alcohol has destroyed tens of millions of lives, and is involved in most car crashes, rapes, and crimes in general. It is a scourge on society. (Trump's single redeeming value is that he doesn't drink.) But categorically refusing to have business dinners with women as a matter of policy is discriminatory and wrong.

Trump knows that the only reason Pence agreed to be his running mate is that Pence fully expected Trump to be impeached before he served his full term, and that came a step closer to reality when Democrats took the House last week.

It is quite possible that once Mueller releases his report, the Democrats in the House will have sufficient cause to initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump for all manner of crimes, but most particularly tax evasion, money laundering for the Russians for decades through real estate deals in New York and Florida, and obstruction of justice in the Russia investigation and the firing of James Comey.

That will mean a trial in the Senate. The Republicans will have a larger majority in the Senate next year, and some of Trump's greatest Republican critics will be gone. But there may be a few Republicans who still have souls and will side with the Democrats if they smell blood in the water. Because no politician actually likes Trump, because they all know he'll stab them in the back when it suits him.

Pence is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate. That means could vote himself president in a deadlocked impeachment proceeding. And Trump could not have that.

So now Trump is constantly asking whether Pence is loyal. Which is a joke, because Trump is loyal to no one. Just ask Jeff Sessions.

But the only way to remove the vice president is through impeachment: unlike the attorney general, Trump cannot fire Pence. That leaves Trump in a bind, because there's been no evidence that Pence has done anything illegal, other than whatever obstruction conspiracy he might have been involved in with Trump.

Which means that to take out Pence, Trump would have to take himself out. Which, if that goes down next year, could make Nancy Pelosi president. Wouldn't that be hilarious?