Contributors

Friday, April 04, 2014

The CIA Program That Started with a Dead Ox

The wisdom of crowds is a concept that arose in 1906, when British statistitian Francis Galton observed a competition at a fair where 800 people guessed the weight of a dead ox. No one got the right answer, but when he tallied all the guesses he was shocked to learn that the average — or maybe it's the median — was 1,197 lbs, just one pound short of the actual weight.



This is also how colonies of bees and ants appear to do quite intelligent things even though each individual insect is totally oblivious.

A few years ago the CIA started a program to use Galton's finding. "The Company" is infamous for weird and sinister programs. For example, MK Ultra, where they tried to use drugs like LSD to produce "Manchurian Candidates." Or Remote Viewing, where they had psychics using ESP and clairvoyance to spy on the Russians. Or waterboarding, where they tortured prisoners with simulated drowning, a tactic used by the Spanish and Flemish Inquisitions, the Gestapo and WWII Japanese war criminals, who were hanged for torturing Americans.

The program that came from the dead ox is not so sinister. Called the Good Judgment Project, it attempts to use the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events. It's been running for three years now.

It consists of 3,000 ordinary people who answer questions on a website to estimate probabilities of future events. The astonishing thing is, this program is better at making forecasts than the professional CIA analysts who have access to classified documents.

Even more amazing, some of the individual participants are 30% better than the CIA at doing the CIA's job. How do they do it? Elaine Rich, a sixty-something pharmacist, says, "Usually I just do a Google search."

Even though that may sound impressive, it really isn't. The CIA -- and organizations in general -- are notorious for groupthink. They know what answers their bosses want to hear, because their bosses have already decided what they want to do, and they just want ammunition to back up the decision they've already made. This was especially true of the Bush administration in the run-up to the Iraq war.

But there are less sinister reasons why a group of 3,000 folks from across the country might be better at doing this than the CIA.

First, they have no skin in the game, while the CIA is responsible for the safety of the American people. If a CIA analyst misses something a lot of people may die. Analysts feel that pressure, and will tend to perceive potential threats to be greater than they actually are. Also, the number of analysts devoted to each area at CIA is fairly small, and they all talk to and influence each other. It's only natural that they would drift toward a consensus, and all too often consensus is driven not by mutual agreement but by whoever shouts the loudest.

Sometimes there is just too much detail. With all those classified documents, analysts can get bogged down in minutiae that are much less important than they might seem. They can't see the forest for the trees.

Finally, no one cares if a CIA section predicts 10 doomsdays an hour and none of them ever happens, but everyone will be all over them if four guys die in an embassy attack that they failed to predict.

By the way, if you're interested the Good Judgment Project is accepting applications!

Thursday, April 03, 2014

The Most Boring Spectator Sport. Ever.

There was once a wildly popular professional sport that is even more boring than football and NASCAR: pedestrianism. In the 1870s and 1880s huge crowds gathered to watch men walk around in circles 24 hours a day:
[For] six-day walking matches, the rules were pretty simple. They would just map out a dirt track on the floor of an arena — many of the matches took place at the first Madison Square Garden in New York — and the lap was about 1/7th or 1/8th of a mile. And you could only walk six days because public amusements were prohibited on Sundays. So beginning right after midnight on Sunday night/Monday morning, the walkers would set off and they would just keep walking until right up until midnight the following Saturday.
In an interview on NPR author Matthew Algeo talks about his book, Pedestrianism: When Watching People Walk Was America's Favorite Spectator Sport. Some highlights: it started when Edward Payson Weston lost a bet on the 1860 presidential election and had to walk from Boston to Washington for the inauguration; African-Americans were able to compete; trainers (incredibly, they had them) recommended their pedestrians drink champagne, because it was thought to be a stimulant. There were also gambling and drug scandals.

With the invention of the safety bicycle pedestrianism died out; bicycle races were much more interesting because — you guessed it — the crashes were much more spectacular, especially after six days of sleepless pedaling.

My Hair Is Not On Fire

Liberals are running around today with their hair on fire after yesterday's SCOTUS ruling on campaign contributions. The "end is nigh" because there is (gasp!) money in politics. I'm shocked, I tell you, shocked to find out the gambling is going on in this establishment!! Well, I have a few words for my friends on the left who think life, as we know it, is over.

Pay attention to the nuance of this case. If you read the SCOTUS blog link, you can see that there is more transparency now. There is also a larger playing field for individuals, not just mega donors, to get in the game. If liberals really want to have an effect on this issue, they need to push for transparency. Anyone who donates in whatever amount has to be disclosed in the most transparent way.

Consider as well how much money was spent to defeat the president and how it all amounted to zilch. Money isn't as much of a factor as you think given other influences in politics today. Look at the example of social media. Facebook and Twitter are free, right? Anyone can post a video on YouTube. This is what people look at these days and they are more of an influence on votes than millions of dollars of donations. Honestly, the mouth foamers about this law don't understand the digital generation.

This ruling also puts more power back in the hands of the parties and out of the hands of the mega donors. I predict we will see the decline of the Super Pac as a result of this decision.

So, liberals, chill the fuck out! Money has always been in politics and it always will. If you try to ban it, somehow it will find a way to spread around. Keep it out in the open and remove all limits and watch how its effect diminishes.

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Foreign Princes Buying American Elections

The intent of the Founding Fathers in writing the Constitution is always heavily debated when cases go before the Supreme Court. The Court's decision today to allow wealthy individuals to spend infinite amounts of money to buy elections across the country is no different.

One of the reasons the Founding Fathers broke from Europe was the arrogance and corruption inherent in the hereditary ruling class of kings and noblemen. The wealth and influence of men like the Koch brothers -- hereditary oil barons -- and casino mogul Sheldon Adelson makes them the nobility of today.

These people expect everyone to treat them like royalty, pay them fealty and kiss their feet. Just last week Chris Christie and other Republican presidential hopefuls paid obeisance to Sheldon Adelson. During his paean to a foreign country in Las Vegas Christie made a catastrophic blunder by calling the Palestinian terroritories that Israel seized from Syria, Egypt and Jordan in 1967 and is still occupying "the Occupied Territories." When Christie was told of Adelson's displeasure he apologized instantly.

Adelson's casinos are involved with bribery and money laundering. He makes billions in Macau off Chinese gamblers. In the last election cycle Adelson spent more than a hundred million dollars to elect a Republican president. Adelson is currently on a crusade to keep online gambling illegal, suckering many Republicans and Christians to do his bidding. Millions of Americans are addicted to casino gambling, costing the US economy $50 billion annually. Stories about accountants and bookkeepers embezzling money from their companies and churches to feed their gambling habit are endless. Adelson profits from this addiction and misery; gambling and corruption are inextricably linked.

Adelson is essentially an agent of the Israeli government, spending his billions to get the United States to kowtow to Israeli politicians, regardless of what the best interests of the American people might be.

Did the Founding Fathers really write a Constitution that equates foreign princes like Sheldon Adelson using their wealth to buy elections across the United States to free speech?

What Is Your Alternative, Ms. Palin?

Sarah Palin recently called Paul Ryan's latest budget "a joke" saying "it is STILL not seeing the problem; it STILL is not proposing reining in wasteful government overspending TODAY, instead of speculating years out that some future Congress and White House may possibly, hopefully, eh-who-knows, take responsibility for today’s budgetary selfishness and shortsightedness to do so."

“THIS is the definition of insanity,” she continued.

Fine. Where do you propose cuts?

“You’d think one who is representing the mighty Badgers, who made it to the Final Four based on sacrificial work ethic and discipline that obviously pays off in the end, … would understand that future success depends on hard work and sacrifices,” Palin said.

Again, where exactly do you propose cuts?

There is plenty to cut, Palin argued, as “every omnibus bill is loaded with pork and kickbacks.”

Be specific. How much? What would happen as a result of the cuts?

“As my Dad would say after these April Fool’s announcements, ‘This would kill a lesser man.’ This out-of-control debt is killing our economic future,” Palin wrote.

How exactly?

Sarah Palin is a great example of how all conservatives have these days is criticism...even of their own party! They don't offer anything but strident language and hollow (and really, really played) talking points that appeal to fear. Considering our massive wealth and assets, the debt is a phantom menace and she is simply lying about our economic future.

Of course, she (and any other conservatives) are welcome to prove me wrong with substantive plans of their own:)

A Selfie With The President









































The president has a good couple of days and the photo above shows that there is a spring in his step (even if he is a White Sox fan). Big Papi and 44...nice!


Wear What You Want


Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Rand Paul (Again) On Immigration

Rand Paul, on deportation.

The bottom line is, the Hispanic community, the Latino community is not going to hear us until we get beyond that issue. They’re not going to care whether we go to the same church, or have the same values, or believe in the same kind of future of our country until we get beyond that. Showing up helps, but you got to show up and you got to say something, and it has to be different from what we’ve been saying.

Yes. Yes, it does. Time to change.

Seven Million

It looks like the Affordable Care Act has surpassed its revised goal and now has hit its original goal of seven million enrollees. The GOP has quickly shifted its talking points to issues of non payment and the coming economic apocalypse which will result from the ACA. We also have this poll from ABC and the Washington Post.

49-48, in favor. Wow.

As I have been saying these last few weeks, Democrats need to run proudly on the ACA and note that it's part of an overall plan to bolster the middle class (of which a minimum wage hike is a strong part). They do this and they hold the Senate in the fall and possibly narrow the gap in the House.

The Real Takers

When I was in college in the late 1970s the Institute of Technology at the University of Minnesota had a classroom outfitted with TV screens in front of every chair. A camera in the back was trained on professors who taught in the room and another camera over the desk was focused on a pad of paper they wrote on. About half my computer science classes were taught here, from introductory programming languages to advanced data structures and computer networking. 

It sounds charmingly primitive in this age of Skype and online degrees, but the point was not to save chalk; rather, it was to beam the course by microwave to remote sites where programmers working full-time could earn computer science degrees. This was the backbone of the U of M's UNITE Distributed Learning system. Communication was two-way; remote students could ask the professor questions through a mic at their end. Companies like IBM in Rochester and Univac in Roseville set up TV classrooms in their buildings. This saved the employees several hours a week because they didn't have to commute to the university in Minneapolis.

These classes were kind of annoying because of the inevitable interruptions from equipment glitches, but also because the remote students were just not with it. They were older, slower, and asked a lot of seemingly dumb questions. Fortunately, the cameras were pointed at the professor and didn't capture our eye-rolling.

Incredibly, not only did these companies pay to put these fancy electronic classrooms in their buildings, with the attendant costs for installing the microwave antennas and two-way communications, the salary of the camera operator, but they paid the employees' tuition.

That was then. This is now (from Paul Krugman at The New York Times):
A few months ago, Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, and Marlene Seltzer, the chief executive of Jobs for the Future, published an article in Politico titled “Closing the Skills Gap.” They began portentously: “Today, nearly 11 million Americans are unemployed. Yet, at the same time, 4 million jobs sit unfilled” — supposedly demonstrating “the gulf between the skills job seekers currently have and the skills employers need.”
Back then if a company needed someone to do a new job, they often took an experienced, dedicated, hard-working and loyal employee and gave them the training to do it. These days too many companies fire those same experienced — and higher-paid — employees and hire someone cheap.

The U of M's UNITE system still exists, after more than 40 years. They use streaming video and podcasts instead, but they still pitch UNITE to companies who need technical people.

However, few companies these days invest in people. They demand prospective employees to invest tens of thousands of dollars of their own money, often accruing debt exceeding $100K, in education and training programs that companies need today, with no guarantee that the company will have any use for them in five or 10 years. Companies expect government to create secondary and vocational school programs to train employees for them in the specialty areas they need. At the same time they demand lower and lower taxes, while sending their profits to offshore tax havens.

And these same companies constantly demand that the government raise the H1B visa quotas. This program allows companies to hire "high-skilled" tech workers from countries like China and India. The reason "high-skilled" is in quotes is that what they're really after is "low-paid."

This is why the wage gap is getting so wide and so many middle-income Americans are failing. Companies are firing people in their forties and fifties who have spouses and mortgages and children with college tuition bills, and replacing them with American kids up to their eyeballs in college loans — often because their parents lost their jobs — or kids from India and China whose education was paid for by a foreign government.

The execs at these companies are selling America and Americans out, while jacking up their own salaries and reducing their corporate tax liabilities to less than nothing. Companies like Apple are giving federal and state governments no resources to run the schools the companies insist are needed produce useful workers for them.

Now. Who are the real takers?

Series Finale: How I Met Your Mother (Spoiler Warning)

Last night my family and some friends tuned in to the series finale of the CBS comedy How I Met Your Mother. I have watched the show from the very first episode back in 2005 and have thoroughly enjoyed every minute of it.

The show tells the story of Ted Moseby (Josh Radnor) as he recounts to his children (left) in the year 2030 how he met their mom in 2013 after 8 years of twists and turns. It was a very funny show that captured the essence of relationships, friendships, and cocktail culture set against the backdrop of New York City. Ted's friends were Marshall Ericksen (Jason Segel), his wife Lily (Alyson Hannigan), Barney Stinson (Neil Patrick Harris), and Robin Scherbatsky (Cobie Smulders). From the very first episode it was clear that Ted loved Robin but as the story unfolded we realized that she was not the mom. The character of the mother became almost mythical. Who is she? What actress will play her? When will she finally appear?

This season she finally did appear, played by the wonderful and gorgeous Cristin Milioti (left). As this ninth and final season unfolded, viewers started to get hints that perhaps the mother was no longer alive when Ted was telling the story in the year 2030. There were also hints that Robin and Ted, after not getting together, finally getting together, breaking up, and having a few flings would finally end up as couple.

Both of these rumors were confirmed last night in the finale. The mother (named Tracy McConnell) gets sick at some point in the year 2024 and dies. At the very end of the show, Ted's kids tell him it's been six years and he should go find Aunt Robin and be happy again. This ending has sent shockwaves all over the internet as a maudlin, terribly downbeat ending to a show that has been in their hearts for nearly a decade. My wife was very pissed off last night, yelling at the TV and putting her thumb way down. I realize it's just a show and these people are characters in a fictional world but it did have quite an impact on our house and with my friends.

Many viewers were like my wife and thought it was a terrible ending. We've looked forward for nine years to meet the mom and she's dead? We meet her this season, she's absolutely wonderful and she's dead? We've just got to know her and she's dead? Of course, the show goes to great pains to show that Tracy was a big part of Ted's life for 11 years and they had two wonderful children together. The problem is that we see that in such a short time span that we don't really feel that longevity nor the passage of time. This is where I can see their point.

Yet life is messy and people die. Marshall's dad died a few years ago. The show wouldn't be as beloved if it wasn't so realistic. It makes the character of Tracy and her love with Ted all the more tragic and, honestly, perfect. Add in that her character lost the love of her life to a tragic accident and it makes her death truly devastating...a somewhat dark life indeed with Ted and her children being bright rays of light. This sharp dose of reality made me appreciate the ending more than my family and friends. Sure, Robin and Ted weren't perfect and were often irritating but that's what most couples are like.

There is no such thing as a Hollywood ending in life, although some have argued that Ted ending up with Robin is the Hollywood ending and that might be the case. With How I Met Your Mother, the story was never really about Ted and Tracy. The title may say otherwise but it really was a love story about Ted and Robin and how they ended up together. Watch the very first episode and the very last one and that's exactly what you see. Everything in between was the messy shit that happens in life...the highs and the lows...the laughter and the tears...and how a close group of friends can be family.

What Does It Mean To Be A Volunteer?


Monday, March 31, 2014

No Such Thing As Obamacare

There is no such thing as ObamaCare. You can't sign up for ObamaCare. You're signing up for an Anthem (ph) policy or an Aetna policy, or a WellPoint policy. It is private insurance. And private insurance companies have been doing closed networks for years.

Senator Angus King, I-Maine, on the lying about the Affordable Care Act.

Latest Climate Chane Report From IPCC

The IPCC has just published its latest report on climate change. It details the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability associated with climate change. An example of this would be the risk associated with food insecurity due to more intense droughts, floods, and heat waves in a warmer world, especially for poorer countries.

What strikes me as ironic about the food shortage issue is this is the exact same outcome seen by conservatives as a result of our federal government's mishandling of our economy. I got to hear about it all weekend at a recent family gathering from my brother in law who is basically inconsolable. "Our children's futures are being mortgaged away" he cried many times yet the very real danger presented by climate change bounced off the bubble. "Liberal propaganda...liberal plot to control us..." were words I heard any time the subject came up.

It's not just climate change, though. They have no concern whatsoever about the abuse of power of corporations, our dilapidated infrastructure, the inability of parents to think globally in terms of our education system or our health care system...you know, the ACTUAL problems we have as opposed to the phantom menaces they make up (actually it's only one menace...the federal government).

So, why do conservatives worry about things that aren't likely to happen and go completely limp when it comes to things that likely will happen?

So Much For The Obamacare Horror Stories

Koch Group Abandons Obamacare 'Horror' Stories After Fact-Check Backlash.

Perhaps they have finally learned their lesson:)

Food Stamp Myths

There are a lot of myths about food stamps and this site is an excellent source for correcting the misinformation. Here are a few basic facts.

76% of SNAP households included a child, an elderly person, or a disabled person. These vulnerable households receive 83% of all SNAP benefits.

These are real people, folks, with real problems. Lumping them all into one category as lazy, good for nothings is ridiculous.

Two-thirds of all SNAP payment errors are a result of caseworker error. Nearly one-fifth are underpayments, which occur when eligible participants receive less in benefits than they are eligible to receive.

The idea that there is something special about the "fraud" that goes on with SNAP is completely ridiculous. The errors aren't overpayments but underpayments.

Here is one of my favorite myths followed by reality.

Work Requirements 

Myth: SNAP doesn’t do enough to encourage participants to get a job, and the program needs stronger work requirements. 

Reality: SNAP already has strict time-limits for unemployed workers. Able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) may only receive 3 months of SNAP benefits during any 3 year period, unless they are working in a qualifying job training program. The SNAP benefit formula is structured to provide a strong work incentive – for every additional dollar a SNAP participant earns, their benefits decline by about 24 to 36 cents, not a full dollar, so participants have a strong incentive to find work, work longer hours, or seek better-paying employment.

We have enough problems with helping out those in need. Adding fake problems makes it worse. The next time you here some mouth foaming about food stamps, check out this site for reality.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Ah, Karma...



As I remind people all the time, irresponsible...

Putin Calls Obama

Vladamir Putin called the president on Friday to discuss diplomatic solutions to the situation in Ukraine. He also has stated that Russian troops would not move into eastern Ukraine. Neither one of these occurrences should be viewed as the end of the crisis but they do represent a shift away from warmer temperatures.

It's interesting to note that phone calls about diplomacy and assurances over troop movements are being made after the "ineffective" sanctions are now in place. Does this also mean that Putin has lost his macho luster with the GOP? After all, what kind of a leader tells another country that they won't be invading? A wimpy pussy, right?

Obama's Catholic Roots

There are still around 17 percent of American voters who think that Barack Obama is a Muslim. The fact is, though, that his roots are very deeply Christian.

By the time of that session in the spring of 1987, Mr. Obama — himself not Catholic — was already well known in Chicago’s black Catholic circles. He had arrived two years earlier to fill an organizing position paid for by a church grant, and had spent his first months here surrounded by Catholic pastors and congregations. In this often overlooked period of the president’s life, he had a desk in a South Side parish and became steeped in the social justice wing of the church, which played a powerful role in his political formation.

The concept of social justice comes directly from the teachings of Jesus Christ and has been carried forward with a great deal of success by the Catholic Church. This is what drove the president to community service and his actions illustrate this quite clearly. His recent meeting with the Pope was a meeting of like minded individuals who understand that service to the poor is service to Jesus Christ. As the article notes, they are kindred spirits who strongly believe in social justice and inclusion.

There isn't any mystery to the president's agenda. He wants to help people out who are less fortunate. It's just that simple.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Is Fracking Safe Or Not?


A Nation of Takers

Nicholas Kristof is completely accurate in identifying the group of people who continually spoon off of the government. They are:

1. People who get subsidies for their private planes
2. People who get subsidies for their yachts
3. People who run hedge funds and and private equity groups
4. Banks
5. American Corporations.

Combined, these folks account for around $200 billion dollars a year of taxpayer money. And it's OK to cut SNAP money by $8 billion dollars? Really?

I hear quite a bit of mouth foaming over food stamps and nothing but crickets when it comes to the above list of welfare queens.

Stamp the ACA Right On Your Forehead

If Democrats want to retain control of the Senate this year, they need to stand proudly behind the Affordable Care Act. They can cite all of the people that are now covered that weren't covered before. They can hold up the basic fact that if you have a pre-existing condition you can't be dropped by your insurance company. They can illustrate how you won't go bankrupt if you have an illness. They can discuss how children and young adults up to age 26 are covered under the parents policies.

And they can reveal that the Republicans have nothing but spite, anger and fear to offer instead of the ACA.

Take the example of Mark Udall who is running for re-election in Colorado.



He'd vote for it again. Damn right!

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Gunning Down Obamacare

If there was any doubt left about the maturity level of the GOP...

Good Words

With respect to Mr. Romney’s assertion that Russia’s our No. 1 geopolitical foe, the truth of the matter is that, you know, America’s got a whole lot of challenges. Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors—not out of strength but out of weakness.

---President Barack Obama, March 25, 2014

Indeed. And say buh-bye to the G-8 (now G-7)

Putin Envy


Conversion of A Clinton Hater

David Brock used to be a mouthfoamer but now he has seen the error of his ways.

On Tuesday, he was the featured speaker at the Clinton School of Public Service at the University of Arkansas, where he delivered a speech about his political conversion and his efforts to “blow the whistle” on what he sees as the right-wing’s “obsession” with the Clintons. “At its root, I realized, Clinton-hating had nothing to do with what the Clintons did and did not do,” Brock said. “It had everything to do with fear of the kind of change they represented on one hand — and on the other, a newly brutal form of partisan politics.”

Sound familiar?

I wonder if years from now we will have converts from the folks who currently have Obama Mental Meltdown Syndrome. I hope so and I'm glad to see that there are people like Brock who are going to get out in front of the Hillary mouthfoam that's going to boil to full froth if she decides to run.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Generation Wars

These days people of every generation are vilifying other generations. Generation X is a bunch of ne'er-do-wells who were still living with mom at age 35, Millenials are coddled brats with helicoptering mothers, and Baby Boomers are self-involved ex-hippies who are going to destroy the entire economy by sucking Social Security dry.

Atlantic's The Wire has the definitive guide to the generations. Well, as definitive as you can get.

Because, honestly, all this stuff about generations is nonsense. Take, for example, the Greatest Generation. Ostensibly these are the people who suffered through the Depression, fought WWII and saved the world for democracy. But that generation is defined as ending in 1946. 1946! How could someone born after WWII ended have done spit to save to the world for democracy?

For that matter, how could anyone born after 1928 contributed in any material way to our victory over the Axis? My dad, born in 1933, was 12 when the war ended. He joined the army in the early 1950s but spent the Korean War in Germany. This Washington Post story does a better job of splitting up the generations, calling my father's cohort the Silent Generation.

It's the same with the Baby Boom: it's really at least two different cultural cohorts. Supposedly, it's characterized by the anti-war, free-love, acid-dropping turn-on-tune-in-drop-out, women's lib and civil rights movements of the 1960s. I was born in 1957, smack in the middle of the demographic bubble. But I was 12 when the 1960s ended. All that counter-culture stuff was completely alien to me.

The idea that the tens of millions of people born during the same 20-year period all have some kind of personality traits in common is even sillier than the idea that everyone born in the same month shares the same horoscope. George W. Bush and Bill Clinton were both born in 1946, but that's about all they have in common.

What's salient about generations is not what year you're born, but what cultural events affected you when you were impressionable. But it's more complicated than that, because kids of different ages are impressed by different things.

Kids 5-12 will be influenced by things such as video games, the space program, cuddly animals, dinosaurs, fire trucks, and so on. Wars in far-off lands, sex, booze and drugs will never enter their minds -- if their parents are doing their jobs right. Kids 13-17 will be affected by the opposite sex, booze and drugs because those things concern them directly. Eighteen- to 25-year-olds are leaving home and entering the wider world, but are still quite impressionable, and are now being influenced by greater concerns like fighting in wars, earning a living, taxes, raising children of their own, politics and so on.

Your parents also affect your development: two children born in 1957, one to a 45-year-old WWII vet and the other to a 17-year-old single mother, are going to have completely different influences.

Even where you live can make a big difference: social trends starting in California or New York may take 10 or 15 years to reach Memphis or Topeka.

In my case the sexual revolution and drug culture of the 1960s completely passed me by, but the space program and moon landing on the 1960s captured the interest of a 5- to 12-year-old. My politically formative years were the 1970s and early 80s, the tail end of the Vietnam War, Watergate, the Oil Crisis, the Iranian hostage crisis, and Iran-Contra. According to this website, that puts me squarely in Generation X. I was born at the height of the Baby Boom, but culturally I'm a Gen-Xer.

The problem is is trying to define generations as lasting 20 years, apparently conforming to the active reproductive years of the human female. But people don't fall into neat little 20-year boxes. They're being born constantly.

If we're going to talk meaningfully about generations, we have to give up the idea of all parents belonging to one generation and the kids belonging to the next. Instead we have to talk about smaller cultural cohorts that may not be the same length. Thus, the turmoil of the 60s lasted about 10 or 12 years, but the relative stasis of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s endured for almost 30 years.

I would divvy up the cultural cohorts this way:

The Greatest Generation was between 1910 and 1928. They came of age during the Depression and fought in WWII. These folks are mostly gone now.

My father's generation lived through the Depression as children; they knew deprivation, but not the desperation that comes with being unable to provide for your children. They came of age during the post-War years, the Korean War, and the height of the Cold War, when in the 40's and 1950s Russia and the United States tested nuclear weapons every other week and people were building bomb shelters in their back yards.

The cultural cohort that corresponds to what we call the Baby Boom were children in the 1950s and teenagers in the 1960s, born from, say, 1942 to 1955. They were affected by the Vietnam war and the sexual revolution and all the other perils of that turbulent time.

My cultural cohort was born between 1952 and 1970, people who came of age in the relatively calm times of 70s and 80s. I'd call it the Computer Cohort. This includes Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, the people who created the personal computer and made computers an integral part of everyday life during the 1980s. This generation were the shock troops in the fiscalization of our economy, where making money became more important than making things.

The next cohort came of age in the boom years of the late 80's and 1990s, when communism fell, America was unquestionably the king of the world, we could snap our fingers and the world would help us take down a dictator like Saddam Hussein and the Internet became widely accessible.

The next cohort comes of age in the 2000s and 2010s, their nights haunted by dreams of 9/11 and their days dogged by endless war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Internet becomes omnipresent and almost omniscient; this generation is the first to be electronically tethered to their peers all their lives.

We blame the children of each generation for their peculiar characteristics, but their parents and grandparents created the world that shaped them.

Baby Boomers are criticized for all getting old at the same time, putting a drain on the Social Security system and forcing their children and grandchildren to pay for their retirements. But they didn't ask to be born, and they had nothing to do with increases in Social Security payments, which are tied to inflation through automatic cost of living adjustments put in place by legislation Congress passed in the 1970s, when most Baby Boomers weren't old enough to be elected to Congress and many weren't even old enough to vote.

Generation X is criticized for living with their parents, but their elders tanked the economy, forcing them into that ignominy. And their parents let them stay in their basements. Millennials are castigated for constantly texting and playing video games, or their parents coming to to job interviews with them. But it's their parents and grandparents who built the Internet, created microelectronics, cellphones and wi-fi, and go to the job interviews with their kids.

In so many ways, it's the parents who are responsible for the way their kids turn out. Yet we always blame the kids for our mistakes.

If you look closely at the criticisms leveled at every generation, they're always the same: those people are selfish, self-involved jerks who don't give a rip about my problems. All of this boils down to the same old-man rant: kids these days just ain't got no respect.

And get off my lawn!

Find The Gun Cult A Fainting Couch!

Springfield, Illinois is now GROUND ZERO for the battle over gun rights after this absolute abomination was used in a classroom setting.

















Oh no!! Someone fetch the smelling salts!!

GOP 2016 Presidential Nominee: Vladimir Putin

A colleague of mine in the social studies department finally decided he had had enough. He had to let loose his opinion on the situation in the Ukraine at a recent staff meeting. He's also the chairman of the department so we all sort of had to listen. He spoke of Obama's weakness and how since there was a Democrat in the White House, Putin was emboldened to do whatever he wanted. He posited that we should move NATO troops into Ukraine and send part of our navy to the Black Sea. It was a classic neocon screed that in many ways made me wax nostalgic for those good ol' days of Cheney and Rumsfeld.

More importantly, it made me realize that the perfect candidate for the GOP in 2016 is none other than Vladimir Putin himself. Think about it for a minute. He's strong, doesn't take any shit from anyone, and thinks with his guts! He has all the aristocratic airs that conservatives pretend they don't really like. He doesn't do all the pussy talking and diplomacy crap or rely on mealymouthed sanctions. He ACTS! Add in what President George W. Bush said about him...

He's not well informed. It's like arguing with an eighth grader with his facts wrong.

and he is so unbelievably perfect as the GOP presidential nom that I can already feel that tingle up my leg!

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Do Young Conservatives See Themselves Like This?


World Meteorological Organization: Extreme Weather Due To Climate Change

A recent search for the annual report from the World Meteorological Organization brought me to Fox News of all places.

A rise in sea levels is leading to increasing damage from storm surges and coastal flooding, as demonstrated by Typhoon Haiyan, the agency's Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said. The typhoon in November killed at least 6,100 people and caused $13 billion in damage to the Philippines and Vietnam. Australia, meanwhile, had its hottest year on record. 

"Many of the extreme events of 2013 were consistent with what we would expect as a result of human-induced climate change," Jarraud said. He also cited other costly weather disasters such as $22 billion damage from central European flooding in June, $10 billion in damage from Typhoon Fitow in China and Japan, and a $10 billion drought in much of China.

Perhaps the fact that Fox allowed this on their site is a sign of a shift in ideology. It actually makes sense when you think about it given that Fox is a huge supporter of the corporate world and firms are starting to lose money as a result of climate change.

How Free Markets And Government Spending Can Stabilize A Country

When someone mentions Rwanda, the first words that come to mind are violence and instability, not free markets and prosperity. This recent article in the Times shows just how far Rwanda has come and you can thank the power of capitalism for their recent success. One of my add-ons to the "teach a man to fish" saying is "teach a village to fish and they create a free market economy" and that is clearly what has happened in Rwanda.

Rwanda offers an alternative model, analysts say, a country where the economy has grown an average of nearly 8 percent over the last four years because of increased agricultural productivity, tourism and government spending on infrastructure and housing. Despite having a population of just around 12 million, the consulting firm A.T. Kearney last week named Rwanda the most attractive African market for retailers in its first ever African Retail Development Index. 

As the article notes, there are still challenges ahead for Rwanda but the simple fact that it has made it to this point illustrates that with the right balance of free market principles and government involvement stability can be achieved anywhere.

What is "McConnelling?"

Good grief is this funny....

Monday, March 24, 2014

Are The Republicans Celebrating Too Soon?

If you pay attention to politics, the 2014 elections (over seven months away and without nominees in many contests) has already been won by the Republicans. They've gained more seats in the House and taken back the Senate. Even statistical guru Nate Silver is on their side this time (his new site is pretty boss, btw).

But Tim Alberta says, "Whoa, there, son" and posits that the GOP is celebrating too soon. In looking at his main points, I don't see much progress. In short, he's right. And so is Doug Sosnik. The Republicans are channeling Groucho Marx.

At the national level, Republicans continue to be viewed as the congressional opposition party whose intransigence led to the government shutdown last October. These same interests actively worked to scuttle immigration reform this year. In this environment, it’s the likes of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and California Rep. Darrell Issa who define the Republican brand. The struggle for the party’s future is playing out in real time as we approach the crucial period leading up to the 2016 elections. Ironically, Republicans’ short-term tactics to pick up additional seats in the 2014 midterms—as well as the rightward pressures of the presidential primary process—will only reinforce the public’s perception of the Republican Party as unwelcoming and out of step with the majority of Americans.

Right. They only think in terms of short term gains and never long term victories. 2016 could be an absolute disaster for Republicans if they don't moderate now. They'll have 24 seats up in the Senate and it's a presidential year which means higher voter turnout on the Democratic side. If Hillary runs, she will likely win and possibly have both Houses back.

It will be interesting to see who they put up for candidates against the vulnerable Democrats. If they go moderate, it's a sign that they are thinking ahead to 2016. If not, they won't take back the Senate and will totally fuck themselves in two years.

Great Bumper Sticker


The Syrian Nightmare

A recent article in the Times shows just how bad the situation is in Syria.

The government bombards neighborhoods with explosive barrels, missiles, heavy artillery and, the United States says, chemical weapons, then it sends in its allies in Hezbollah and other militias to wage street warfare. It jails and tortures peaceful activists, and uses starvation as a weapon, blockading opposition areas where trapped children shrivel and die. 

The opposition is now functionally dominated by foreign-led jihadists who commit their own abuses in the name of their extremist ideology, just last week shooting a 7-year-old boy for what they claimed was apostasy. And some of those fighters, too, have targeted civilians and used siege tactics.

I can barely imagine how awful the situation is there for any average citizen that stayed behind. We were very smart not to get involved and I suppose it's just going to continue until so many people are dead that there isn't any country left.

This terrible thought led me to wonder what kind of a country will be left for Assad or someone else to govern. Who would want to rule such a place?

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Heaven For The Gun Cult

I believe I have found the perfect place for the Gun Cult: Libya.

Libya, where hundreds of militias hold sway and the central government is virtually powerless, is awash in millions of weapons with no control over their trafficking. 

A central government that is powerless? Holy shit! Someone find me some Kleenex in which I can shoot my load!!! I'm sure now that the country is not a gun free zone violence will drop to nearly zero. Hey, maybe we can finally find out what happened at Benghazi!!

Are You Smarter Than An Atheist?

Take the quiz and find out!

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Ukraine Inks Deal With EU

The EU and the Ukraine signed an association agreement yesterday but it got little notice in the press. Odd, considering that this was the spark that lit the flame which started all the instability in the region. Perhaps the "liberal" media has become too obsessed with either the "Obama is weak" meme or wringing their hands over the "fact" that "Obama is weak"

Regardless, the focus should be on this agreement because it's exactly why Vladimir Putin has already lost. It is the first step of trade and economic integration with Europe that won't stop with Ukraine.

The EU also announced it will speed up similar association deals with Georgia and Moldova, it said in its statement: The European Union reconfirms its objective to further strengthen the political association and economic integration with Georgia and the Republic of Moldova. We confirm our aim to sign the Association Agreements, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas, which we initiated in Vilnius last November, no later than June 2014.

As I have said many times in the past, the West's soft, economic power always wins in the long run. Sooner or later, Putin will have no choice but to fall in line like everyone else.

Food Stamps and Moral Hazards

Last week John Stewart tore into Fox News over their persecution of food stamp recipients. His basic point was that the $3 billion worth of food stamp fraud that Fox News was up in arms about is less than the $4 billion dollars in special gifts that oil companies receive from the federal government and Fox News called "peanuts."

Still, welfare fraud and foodstamp fraud are real. So let's look at some examples of this abuse.

The original welfare queen that Ronald Reagan made famous actually existed. Her name (at least one of her names) was Linda Taylor. She was not the typical black woman that everyone pictured when Reagan blew the racist dogwhistle. She was listed officially as white, though she could pass for pretty much any race with all the wigs and makeup she used. She also committed a huge number of other crimes including various frauds, kidnapings and possibly murder.

Welfare fraud was basically the only crime they could pin on her, in much the same way that Al Capone was finally jailed for tax evasion. So Taylor is not representative of welfare or food stamp recipients.

But she is typical of welfare and food stamp cheats. We have a few recent examples here in Minnesota.

Run-of-the-mill food stamp fraud consists of store owners letting recipients use food stamps to buy non-food items, or "entrepreneurs" buying food stamp cards for 50% of face value. Three people were arrested earlier this month in St. Paul for buying food with such cards and exporting it to Liberia.  Who would do such a weird thing?

Noni Snider, Walter Cooper, and Nyla Newbergh: they ran an export business. They were caught because their purchases of mass quantities of soda and noodles at Walmart and Sam's Club raised suspicions. Yes, these small businessmen -- otherwise referred to as job creators and makers by Republican -- are committing food stamp fraud. And based on their names and the suburbs where they live, my guess is that they are white and middle class (my search fu has sadly failed to uncover any perp photos).

In fact, most food stamp fraud is committed or enabled by small business owners, typically store owners: see here in Washington, here in Baltimore,  here in Buffalo, here is Texas (and that's just the last couple of weeks -- it seems like store owners commit food stamp fraud more frequently than gun owners shoot themselves).

The real problem here isn't the poor people committing the fraud, it's richer people ripping off poorer people by giving them only 50 cents on the dollar for their food stamp cards and tempting them with things food stamps aren't supposed to buy.

Now my dad would chime in here and say, "See, food stamps are bad because they encourage waste and fraud. We shouldn't have these programs." Yes, it appears that since small businessmen are so easily tempted into committing fraud we should stop helping poor people.

Food stamps and welfare, the right would say, create a moral hazard by encouraging fraud. But the exact same thing can be said about any number of Defense Department programs, which have cost the American taxpayers hundreds of billions -- if not trillions -- of dollars in waste and fraud, especially during times of war. Remember the planeloads of cash flown into Iraq that just disappeared? That alone was $6.6 billion -- more than twice the food stamp fraud that Fox News abhors, most of it going to corrupt American contractors rather than buying off Iraqi terrorists.  Or the infamous Joint Strike Fighter program, seven years late and $163 billion over budget. Or the $2.7 billion dollars wasted on an Army intelligence program that just doesn't work. Or Reagan's Star Wars program. Or any of hundreds of other weapons and software programs that cost billions but never saw the light of day, all billed to the Defense Department not by lazy welfare recipients, but by highly paid CEOs working for Fortune 500 defense contractors.

In this way the Defense Department creates a moral hazard, by tempting wealthy industrialists into conning the government into weapons programs that will never work. Avoiding war profiteers was one of the main reasons the founding fathers opposed a standing army. The Iraq War was fought in large part because the defense industry -- represented by Don Rumsfeld, Newt Gingrich and Richard Perle on the Defense Policy Board -- wanted the war. The DoD moral hazard is far worse than the food stamp moral hazard, because American troops are inevitably killed and maimed when we start foolhardy wars. And because there is so much more money at stake.

The Chisholms: Typical Welfare Fraudsters
But back to welfare and food stamp fraud. Just the other day Colin and Andrea Chisholm, a Minnesota couple living in Deephaven (a high-priced suburb), were charged. They have an oceanside home and an 83-foot yacht in Florida, $3 million in banks there, an expensive house in Deephaven, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in banks in Minnesota. Because they're rich, they're not in custody: they probably winter in Florida, and by now have taken up residence in the Caymans to avoid prosecution. Their fraud was discovered by Medica when they claimed public assistance for massages at The Marsh, one the most expensive health clubs in the Twin Cities.

This time, however, I have a photo of these welfare cheats. They're upstanding white folks who dress in suits and drive expensive cars. The right's narrative about all welfare fraud being committed by despicable, lazy, poor black people just isn't adding up.

The fact is, rich people like the Chisholms are in a far better position to commit fraud of any sort. They own property and claim residency in multiple states, making it easy to commit all kinds of frauds, including voter fraud by using absentee ballots (that's how real voter fraud occurs -- no one in their right mind would try impersonating someone else; too easy to get caught). They have the money and the wherewithal to get the necessary documents to commit the fraud. And they can skip the country when the law catches on.

The worst poor people can do is sell their food stamp cards at half face value to some rich white woman at the homeless shelter or an exploitative store owner to buy a bottle of Ripple

And most importantly, the wealthy have the motivation: the envy and the greed that seems to drive so many of them to squeeze every penny out of the system by any means possible. According to the right, poor people just don't have the intelligence, gumption, energy or drive to commit real fraud. You need to think like an entrepreneurial small businessman to rip off the government.

Could it be that conservatives always think everyone else is gaming the system and committing fraud because they are?

Friday, March 21, 2014

The Smoking Gun From The Big Bang

I'm feeling extra science-y today so I simply must point out the recent news about the Big Bang Theory. 

Reaching back across 13.8 billion years to the first sliver of cosmic time with telescopes at the South Pole, a team of astronomers led by John M. Kovac of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics detected ripples in the fabric of space-time — so-called gravitational waves — the signature of a universe being wrenched violently apart when it was roughly a trillionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of a second old. They are the long-sought smoking-gun evidence of inflation, proof, Dr. Kovac and his colleagues say, that Dr. Guth was correct.

Congratulations to Dr. Guth for achieving his life's work!

Time for Israel to Put Up or Shut Up

Re: One State Solution.

I cannot imagine a one-state solution ever happening in Israel. It would mean doom for the Jewish state.

Think about it. All their laws would have to be changed to give all Jews, Muslims and Christians (6-10% of Palestinian Arabs are Christians) equal rights. No more special treatment for Orthodox rabbis and haredim (who seem to already be losing their special status).

Politically it would be suicide. Even with the current boundaries with a two-state solution demographics indicate that Arab Israelis will outnumber non-Arab Israelis in a few decades. With a single state that happens the day the two countries are unified. Bibi Netanyahu would be bounced out of office within two weeks when all the Arab members of the Knesset call for a non-confidence vote.

But Israel has to do one or the other. The status quo of oppressing all Palestinians in the Occupied Territories because some small number of them are terrorists is indefensible. Israelis will counter with arguments that there is a great animosity against them by all Palestinians, but they cannot use that as an excuse because they cause that animosity by denying Palestinians basic human and economic rights, by sealing up the Palestinians in economically isolated ghettos. This invites comparisons to certain mid-20th century dictators, but it's considered bad form to name names.

The situation in Israel and Palestine is now analogous to South Africa and its homelands during apartheid. Like apartheid, this occupation cannot stand forever.

There is a third option, and that's the one I fear Israel will exercise: ethnic cleansing. They did it in 1940s, killing or driving hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into exile in a Palestinian diaspora. They have been slowly swallowing chunks of Palestine since 1967, building giant walls splitting up villages and stealing land from farmers, many of whom now live on the opposite side of an impenetrable barrier from their olive groves.

So the Palestinians should call Israel's bluff: either finalize a two-state solution, or absorb Palestine into a greater Israel and give all Muslims and Christians in Israel and the occupied territories the same rights that Israelis enjoy. That's the kind of religious pluralism that Americans have, despite Republicans blather.

Israel has to put up or shut up. Are they a real democracy, or a religious dictatorship who destroys anyone who won't bend a knee to their god?

The situation is that much more ironic because the Palestinians' plight so closely mirrors that of the Jews, both in the Biblical past and the 20th century.

What We Know About Climate Change

A recent report from American Association for the Advancement of Science, spearheaded by Nobel Prize Winner Mario J Molina, clearly illustrates the threat posed by climate change. It targets a more general audience of Americans who need to understand that the danger posed is very real and could affect their children and grandchildren unless action is taken now.

This is a good report to share with people who don't want to be drowned in the science of climate change. For that, you can always visit this site. This new report is more of a summation of where we are at and what can be done.  I'm hoping this can be the beginning of a greater awareness about climate change and a move away from the caveman-ish "let's wait until we are on fire before we do something" mentality.

We Have Your Dog!

 This is from a few weeks ago but I had to put it up. Apparently, the Taliban are holding hostage....one of our dogs. Egads!!

Are we sure it's one of ours?:)

Eat As Many Cheeseburgers As You Want?

The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not and now that this study is out, I'm waiting for the health nuts of the world to blow a massive bowel.

The new research, published on Monday in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine, did not find that people who ate higher levels of saturated fat had more heart disease than those who ate less. Nor did it find less disease in those eating higher amounts of unsaturated fat, including monounsaturated fat like olive oil or polyunsaturated fat like corn oil. “My take on this would be that it’s not saturated fat that we should worry about” in our diets, said Dr. Rajiv Chowdhury, the lead author of the new study and a cardiovascular epidemiologist in the department of public health and primary care at Cambridge University.

It's never been one particular ingredient but several of them combined with each person's unique genetic code. Honestly, it's this code that really dictates what sort of illnesses and longevity we will have.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

One State Solution

I'm very impressed with this recent piece in the Times regarding the gradual loss of a two state solution in Israel. Tareq Abbas is right. The time is now for a one state solution and for civil rights/political power to be given to the Palestinian people. If Israel is truly a democracy, they should allow it. I think they will find that much of their problems with extremist violence will go away if the Palestinian people have a voice.



The Hairy and Macho Conservatives

There are days when I truly adore the sarcasm of Roger Simon. 

Action! Strength! Might! Muscle! That is what we need. 

Obama should stop going around in that silly windbreaker with the presidential seal on the front. Instead, the front of his jacket should have a mushroom cloud and the words: “You mess with the bull and you get the horns.” But he won’t do that. He worries about things like a thermonuclear exchange and how it would end all mankind. 

Wuss.

America....fuck yeah!!

In looking at the collection of comments from conservatives seen in this piece, I must again point out their emotional age.

12. Years. Old.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Channeling Frank Underwood

I haven't seen the Netflix show "House of Cards" but Dean Obeidallah is right. It's time for the Democrats to channel their inner Frank Underwood (minus the murdering, of course). Republicans are ruthless and aren't taking any prisoners this year. They loathe the president and want to fucking bury him for his last two years in office. Cue Machiavelli...

Democrats need to understand this fundamental fact and rise to the occasion. As Obeidallah notes, they need to get voters to turnout by pushing ballot initiatives like the minimum wage and legalizing pot. Of course, the far right base might help them by picking more Todd Akins. And it certainly helps the Democrats' chances with statements like this from GOP chairman, Reince Priebus.

We’re in for a tsunami-type election in 2014...it’s going to be a very big win!

Oh, really?


The True Size of Africa

Dedicate to Geography nerds everywhere...




The Gun Free Zone Myth

I was at a conference at my daughter's junior high and began chatting with a few of her teachers, some of whom I know personally and consider friends. We ended up back in one of the group offices and I caught sight of a postcard on a desk belonging to an English teacher at the school, Mr. Nelson. It was displayed so that only he could see it which I thought kind of odd since there really is no privacy in staff offices. One of the teachers recognized that I noticed it and rolled her eyes.

"Scary, huh? Can you believe people think like this?"

Of course I could given my experience with gun blog commenters. The caption read "Gun Free Zone" and the photo was the one below.



















My first thought was why he would want to look at this all day? What kind of a major fucknut is that loopy about guns that they need to stare at this? And why would he position it so only he could see it? Perhaps not to offend anyone but it also seemed sort of secretive which lends to my theory that the Gun Cult are really a bunch of cowards.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do about this but I know I don't like the idea of someone with this mentality teaching in my daughter's school district. The staff says Mr. Nelson is a good guy and I've met him once and he seemed alright, I suppose,but quiet. Recall as well that the idea that Hitler banned guns and that's why the Holocaust happened is total bullshit.

Fear, paranoia, hate, anger, shit your pants, rinse, repeat...

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

A Downton Abbey Economy

Looks like Lawrence Summers is saying the same things I have been saying about inequality. He's even echoing the realization that the Right opines for aristocracy as he correctly notes in the title of the piece. His conclusion is excellent.

It is ironic that those who profess the most enthusiasm for market forces are least enthusiastic about curbing tax benefits for the wealthy. Sooner or later inequality will have to be addressed. Much better that it be done by letting free markets operate and then working to improve the result. Policies that aim instead to thwart market forces rarely work, and usually fall victim to the law of unintended consequences.

Yep.

How Often Have European Borders Changed?

Watch

Succeed By Helping People

Adam Grant from the Atlantic has a great piece up about how people succeed professionally by helping others in the workplace. While the short term benefits seem slim (especially if you are a woman), the long term benefits become apparent very quickly in the form of higher sales and revenue. Why?

When I wrote the book, I attributed the long-term success of givers to two major forces: relationships and motivation. From a relationship perspective, givers build deeper and broader connections. When a salesperson truly cares about you, trust forms, and you’re more likely to buy, come back for repeat business, and refer new customers. From a motivation perspective, helping others enriches the meaning and purpose of our own lives, showing us that our contributions matter and energizing us to work harder, longer, and smarter. When medical students focus on helping others, they’re able to weather the slings and arrows of long hours and devastating health outcomes: they know their colleagues and patients are depending on them.

Even more important than this is the fact that people that help out more are reflective and learn. Taking on more duties and picking up the slack for other workers translates into a larger skill set and the perception of being indispensable.

Perhaps all of this means that nice guys actually do finish first!

Monday, March 17, 2014

What Is the Point of Relationships?

10 great answers.

My favorite?

7. Embrace attraction to others. It’s there. Communicate, be clear (with everyone, including yourself), and enjoy your fabulous human existence.

I've never understood antisocial behavior. I'd rather be hanging out with people than doing just about anything else.




Crimean Precedents: George W. Bush, Georgia and the South's Secession

Yesterday Crimea held a vote to secede from Ukraine. It was approved by more than 95%, though most non-Russians boycotted the referendum. The Republican response was to blame President Obama for being weak:
“Our administration is creating an air of permissiveness,” Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said on Fox News Sunday. “We do need to show long-term resolve. The comment that Secretary Kerry made is not helpful and again it shows a wishy washiness.”
But many of the Republicans who are criticizing the president are Southern conservatives from states  that have endlessly advocated secession from the United States in the last few years, particularly Texas. They are from states that actually did secede from the Union 154 years ago, starting a bloody civil war pitting slave-holding states against the more industrial north. Surely they must believe the people of Crimea have the right of self-determination, including secession from Ukraine.

To this day, Southern Republicans display the Confederate flag, proudly honoring ancestors who defected from the United States to perpetuate slavery. Slavery apologists like Andrew Napolitano still complain bitterly about the "illegal" acts Lincoln committed to hold the nation together. They still talk about states' rights and nullifying federal law with state legislation.

What happened in Crimea yesterday is nearly identical to what happened in the American South in 1860. A majority of Crimeans voted to secede from Ukraine, against the wishes the majority of the country, and ignoring the rights of a minority population (Tatars, Ukrainians and others) who have historically fared quite poorly under direct Russian rule in the past. Ethnic Russian Crimeans have decided to ally themselves with a tyrant who denies basic human rights to significant segments of the population (gays, Muslims and all political opponents).

It was the same in the Antebellum South. A majority of whites voted to secede from the Union in order to continue denying basic human rights to millions of slaves -- people who were bought and sold and whipped like cattle, who had no right to vote, but who were nonetheless included in population counts to give the South more power in the House of Representatives.

Republicans are up in arms about the terrible message of weakness the president is sending by "doing nothing" about Russia's takeover of Crimea. But this is just a replay of what happened in 2008, when George Bush was president and Russia took Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia in a brief war that coincided with the Summer Olympics. Russia sent tanks into Georgia and attacked the city of Gori. More than 70 people died, most of them civilians.

In contrast, the Crimean secession has been completely bloodless (so far).

Some believe the Georgia conflict as directly leading to the Crimean secession. But Republicans -- except for John McCain, who seems to live only to demand we bomb one country after the next, including Syria, Egypt, Libya, Georgia, Crimea and on and on -- at that time had no interest in invading yet another country right in the middle of a presidential campaign and a severe recession, with a military that was exhausted from fighting a ginned-up war in Iraq and an endless guerilla war in Afghanistan, the country where the Soviet Union's back was broken in the 1980's.

Thus it was George Bush who set the precedent that the United States will do nothing when former Russian republics splinter in ethnic conflicts. The situation in Crimea is far more orderly and peaceful than what happened in Georgia under Bush's watch, and if it ends here the United States has no interest whatsoever in starting an armed conflict.

According to Republicans, states like Texas and Bob Corker's Tennessee have the right to secede from the Union whenever they want to, and the president and Congress can't say boo about it. But they also think that the citizens of Crimea don't have the right to secede from Ukraine and rejoin Russia, the country they had already been part of just 60 years ago. Republicans have called Obama's economic sanctions inadequate, and if that's true, then they must believe the situation calls for American military action against the Russia in Crimea.

This is tantamount to claiming that when the South seceded from the Union, the North should have invited Mexico to help the Union regain control of the rebels.

Of course Republicans don't really believe this. They don't really believe that Southern states have the right to secede from the Union. They don't believe we should intervene military in Crimea. They know it would be politically fooldhardy and suicidal. But that doesn't stop them from throwing verbal hand grenades and red meat to racists in their ranks to whip them up and get them to turn out at election time.

These are the depths to which the Republican Party has sunk. Their entire political strategy is to foam at the mouth about anything the president does, even when his Republican predecessors have set reasonable precedents that guide Obama's actions. They don't care about a coherent foreign or domestic policy. Everything is about the game of politics; nothing matters except winning the next election, showdowns on the Senate floor, incessant votes on the ACA that will never go anywhere, even if the strategy involves torching the Constitution, the Union, and the economy.

The Republican strategy now consists of goading the president into taking some kind of military action in Crimea in order to avoid appearing weak, in the hopes that the situation will blow up in his face and give them the 2014 midterms. And if he does nothing, then they will call him weak and spineless and bitch about his mom jeans, and hope that gives them the 2014 midterms.

They don't seem to care how broken and divided they leave the country, as long as they wind up sitting atop the pile of smoking rubble in the end.

Republics of Russia Itching to Secede?
But back to Russia: Republicans are saying Putin has "won," but this victory may be short-lived. The Crimea vote sets a precedent that many autonomous republics in the Russian Federation would like to emulate. Dagestan and Chechnya have ethnic Muslim populations who want to escape from Putin's oppression.

There are 21 autonomous republics in Russia.  If Crimea can simply hold a vote and leave Ukraine, why not Chechnya? Why not Tatarstan? Why not Khakassia? Why not Chuvashia, or Karelia, or Udmurtia?

In the end, this may incite the separatists in Russia to further action. Instead of heralding a Greater Russia, Putin may well be initiating a complete breakup of the Russian Federation, wracked by terrorism and civil war.

Where in the World is Flight 370?

Like many on this planet, I am completely mystified as to what exactly happened to Malaysian Flight #370. People love mysteries and this one is incredibly puzzling. The last communication was at 1:19am on March 8th with the message, "All right, good night." Shortly after this, the plane's transponder was switched off and it vanished. Some radar pings are pointing to possible directions it went but so far investigators have turned up nothing.

The Christian Science Monitor is reporting that the timing of events reveals meticulous planning. If this was a deliberate act, what's the end game? It seems too secretive to be a terrorist attack and no one has come forward to claim responsibility. At this point it seems likely that one or both of the pilots were involved in the plane's disappearance.

So what exactly to Flight #370? Every day that passes seems to add more fuel to wild speculation. As always, the alien theory is my favorite but the Stargate one shows real creativity!