Contributors

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

The Wind From Their Sails

The Director of National Intelligence has done it again. Gol Darn it all!! He's spoiling everything for all those folks in the White House (and John McCain) who want to bomb Iran. Yesterday saw the release of a NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) on Iran's nuclear capability.

And, oh what a report.

Basically, Iran has abandoned its plans to build a nuclear weapon. The declassified summary states with "high confidence" that they did so in 2003 and, up until mid 2007, have not resumed construction. The report goes onto to say that international diplomatic pressure forced the Iranian government to cease pursuing the goal of a nuclear arsenal.

While they are continuing to produce fissionable material, it is quite obvious that it is going to be used for energy needs. Of course, this doesn't mean that they are ceasing the production of weapons all together. Nor are they declaring to stop assisting various terror groups around the world.

But they are definitely not the grand threat that Bush and Cheney have made them out to be. That ship has sailed. Their dreams of appealing to fear have been dashed and I am skipping with glee!! In other words, the intelligence agencies of our country have called them on their bullshit.

To be clear, Iran is still a problem and needs to be closely monitored. They are a threat, no doubt, and we need to be vigilant. Most importantly, though, we need to be smart. From day one, my biggest gripe about the Bush administration is that they are incredibly incompetent at assessing threats to our country and act in a such a way that it actually makes the problem worse.

One need simply look at how they have handled the 9-11 attacks (pre and post), Iraq, and Katrina to see how poorly they manage crises. Of course, this may have been the intent all along ("See how awful big government is? We need to privatize everything!" aka "Let's help all my pals get rich by forcing miserable people, with no other choice, into serfdom.") and I, for one, am very happy that they won't get this one. And, do you know who else won't?

President Ahmadinejad and the other hard liners of Iran.

See, what I am going to be laughing my ass off about, when I hear all the little neo-fasicists like Michelle Malkin, Bill Kristol, Rush Limbaugh, and some of YOU who post here screaming about how this report is screwed up/a liberal tool/distorted by the liberal media/has already killed several angels in heaven, is how this is a huge victory for us. Why?

1. We have proven to the world that we can penetrate their security with our intelligence apparatus.
2. We have taken the bluster out of Ahmadinejad. His biggest bargaining chip is gone. He has no defense, to speak of really, against regime change, from within or without.
3. They know that we will be watching.

As a result, we can pretty much run the table on them anywhere we want now in the Middle East. Hell, they have already caved on Iraq by ceasing most arm shipments to Iraq and assisting with security. And they look like fools for being the only country in the region to not attend the Annapolis conference on a Israeli-Palestinian solution.

See what happens when you're smart about confronting your enemy. See what happens when you recognize war for what it is: just another political tendril. See how effective forceful diplomacy can truly be. Now, imagine what is going to happen when President Obama takes us all to the next level.

I can't wait.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice.

It's almost as though, slowly, George Bush's and Dick Cheney's masculinity is being taken away from them. How can they be men without bombing someone?

Anonymous said...

What year did this abandonment of WMDs happen? Does anyone even notice the elephant in the room? If Iran shut its program down in the fall of 2003, might, Might, MIGHT it have anything to do with Iran noticing that the US militarily took out its neighbor (another enemy of the U.S.) earlier that year for, among other things, having a concealed WMD program? I guess it goes to show that a little diplomacy coupled with sanctions, international pressure and carrying a big stick goes a long way.

Anonymous said...

Cool, I never thought of it that way, markadelphia. President Ahmadinejad IS the big loser in this situation. Good insight and now I am back to thinking that you haven't lost your mind.

Anonymous said...

If you would do your research you would see that NIE's are not always accurate. Sometimes they are wildly inaccurate. I invite anyone to go to "Foreign Relations of the United States: Cuba, 1958-1960" and read what the NIE said about Fidel Castro before he took power.

Another example: a week before Somoza collapsed in Nicaragua, the NIE of the day claimed he was bound to remain in power indefinitely.

Maybe Iran has stopped working on its nuclear project. Maybe the CIA has got it right. Maybe, maybe not but just take one look at past history and I wouldn't bet the ranch on it. That's not "screaming", it's not liberal, it's not conservative, it's called looking at historical facts, something you all apparantly failed to do or refuse to do.

and you all chose to believe this current report 100%. No questions asked, not one. Just decide to believe it and move on. If you think an NIE "estimate" is the factual end all, be all then I truly feel sorry for you.

Do your homework.

Anonymous said...

Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE that you posted the link to.

Consider that on July 11, 2007, roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee:

"Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons--despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons."

Here's the link - http://www.odni.gov/testimonies/20070711_testimony.pdf

That paragraph appears under the subheading: "Iran Assessed As Determined to Develop Nuclear Weapons." And the entirety of Fingar’s 22-page testimony was labeled "Information as of July 11, 2007".

No part of their July NIE is consistent with their latest NIE, in which they tell us Iran suspended its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003 "primarily in response to international pressure" and they "do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons".

I notice you're not in an "asking questions" mode because this current report allows you to bash Bush. If you readers of this blog think you're getting the whole story from Markadelphia I truly feel sorry for you.

Note I am in no way saying which NIE is right and which is wrong. It's just funny to see how you jumped on this so quickly and accepted it as unquestioned fact.

Mark Ward said...

Yeah, nice try, sw but I ain't buying.

First of all, any intelligence agency report should be taken with a grain of salt. Remember, though, that our National Intelligence system is now vastly improved...much more so than 1958-1960. Actually, President Bush himself has been at least partially responsible for organizing all the various intelligence agencies into a more effective unit. I find it hilarious, that after his administrations efforts do the right thing with our intelligence agencies, that they didn't give him the answer that he wanted:)

Second, Re-read what I wrote again and you will note that I, along with President Bush, still view Iran as a threat. No question. What we should NOT DO is shape policy based on "gut feelings" anymore. We need to deal with the facts, even if they don't jibe with certain political ideologies.

Third, I think you should include in your search for the "whole story" the seven years of lying and appealing to fear that this administration has been engaged in. You can try to paint me anyway you like, sw, but I have our country's best interests at heart. For the most part, Bush/Cheney etc do not...you know this...and are really having a hard time admitting that you're wrong.

Anonymous said...

What I said was that the NIE has been wrong before and that this current report differs from a report the same people did just 4 months ago.

How was I "wrong" here? I don't know which report is right and which one is wrong. The point is - you don't know which one is right or wrong either.

So your intentions are good. Does that give you a free pass to only give half the story?

Mark Ward said...

SW, check out today's post above for a more detailed response, with links, which further cement the validity of the report.