I think it is now safe to say that our economy has turned the corner and we are doing quite well.
Surging stock prices and steady home-price increases have allowed Americans to regain the $16 trillion in wealth they lost to the Great Recession. Higher wealth tends to embolden people to spend more. Some economists have said the increase in home prices alone could boost consumer spending enough to offset a Social Security tax increase that has reduced paychecks for most Americans this year.
The Conference Board survey said consumers are also more optimistic about the next six months. That should translate into greater consumer spending, substantial growth in hiring and faster economic growth in the second half of 2013, says Thomas Feltmate, an economist with TD Economics.
The difference this time is that there are so many indicators pointing towards positivity that there really isn't an asterisk on this news. I wonder how all of this will be spun inside of the bubble.
5 comments:
Funny but I just saw on CBS news that this did not account for a number of factors and we've only recovered about 45% of the wealth lost.
Then again, if "lost wealth" includes over-inflated real estate values, it shouldn't ever be 'recovered'.
While there are some positives in autos, housing, and stocks, the negative components are disturbing and pointing to serious correction.
Income and savings rate trouble
and
Wage Growth Terrible
and
Four signs of bubble territory
Europe, Japan, India, and China are all in serious danger territory which at some point may trigger correction.
but hey, consumer confidence is up.
Ah, zerohedge...the current fave of the "end is nigh" crowd. It's going to be highly amusing watching ol' Tyler over the course of the next year as the facts directly refute the reality he has created even more than they already do. Take, for example, this post...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-27/40-frightening-facts-fall-us-economy
#1-So what? The economy was much smaller then as well.
#2-Already debunked.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/jun/01/sarah-palin/sarah-palin-says-obama-has-accumulated-more-debt-p/
http://factcheck.org/2012/02/dueling-debt-deceptions/
http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/8188/has-president-obama-accepted-more-debt-than-all-previous-us-presidents-combined
I do like the fresh twist on it, though, as he conveniently leaves out W. Fundamentally, a flawed argument as debt is cumulative.
#3-Again, so what? And by only going back to Carter he leaves out the much higher debt years post WWII.
#4-Again, so what? And how much would it have been after WWII...200, 000 years?
#5-Was that a "for the children" meme on a right wing site?:) It's also a completely false statement as he has no real way of knowing what sort of new revenue is going to be coming in the future.
#6-And there is over 60 trillion dollars of private wealth in this country.
#7-Given that we are spreading free markets around the world and are becoming a multiplolar world, I don't know why this is frightening.
#8-See #7. Also, a main reason for this is the adolescent behavior of wanting Obama to fail at all costs.
#9-What is the metric for "best place?" I'm not sure I'd want to live in Hong Kong over the USA given the fundamental lack of freedom in China. And Australia? Don't they have really strict gun laws? Would you want to live there?
#10-Globalization again. Consider, though, that the development of new technologies that might create different types of jobs at home. The fact is that people are going to have to be re-trained.
I could go on but I think you get the point...
You could go on but you would look like a fool more than usual. So tangent boy...are you saying there aren't any warning signs of trouble and everything is going good? You didn't even respond to the post or seem to understand what I wrote. You just posted an unrelated article with your 'professional analysis'.
There's on overall theme of impending doom from the site and your links play into that which is why I used my link from the same site to use as an example of how he cherry picks facts or just simply lies.
As to your question, ask a more intelligent one. It's not as simple as those two options. At any given moment, there are always signs of "trouble." How you react to potential problems (see: much larger amygdala) is a testament to your ability to effectively manage a situation. From what I see of the Right these days, behaving as some sort of strange combination of overly emotional adolescents and hysterical old ladies is decidedly counter-productive.
So, I am unmoved by your links and think things are heading in the right direction. If demand continues to rise as it is, firms will begin to hire and by next year, unemployment will be lower (6 percent or lower) and GDP will be over 3 percent a quarter at least. The only thing that may hold us back on this will be decreased government spending.
But that's just the point now, isn't it?:)
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