Here's an interesting piece from today's Times regarding the strategy shift of ISIL. I find most of it to be on the mark save for one glaring omission: wasn't this always going to be their strategy?
Like Al Qaeda before it, ISIL is an organization that wants the world returned to the year 700 with old style Islamic values. They don't just want their little corner to rule over. They want the whole thing and want to eradicate anyone that stands in their way.
So, now the question becomes how do we stop them? We area already bombing them so that's good. If we decide to put boots on the ground, we could take out their main force of 20,000 guys and 1970s pickup trucks. Neither of these actions, however, would defeat them because we're talking about a worldwide ideology. This, of course, brings us back to the problem we had with Al Qaeda. How do you stop an idea?
At the core of the solution to this problem lies free trade and free markets. When people get a taste of the wealth and prosperity that capitalism brings, they tend to not want to shoot each other or blow themselves up anymore. That's why Muslims in the United States aren't radicalized. They love their lives here and are comfortable.
No doubt there will still be Islamic groups that will not go gently into that good night but that's where international crime fighting efforts have to be massively increased. Intelligence...human intelligence...is where we can really take the fight to ISIL.
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Resolving these problems is more complicated than giving people free markets and comfort. There's a lot of tribalism involved, and religious fervor against Shiites and non-Muslims. And ISIS is able to recruit people across the world because some harbor a feeling that Muslims are the victims of massive injustice (Palestinians oppressed by Jews in Israel, Sunnis oppressed by Shiites in Iraq and Alawites in Syria, Muslims in France being insulted by French cartoonists and not allowed to wear traditional clothing).
And France wasn't the only victim of terrorism in recent days. ISIS struck at Hezbollah targets in Beirut,on Thursday, the day before Paris was attacked. And they apparently bombed a Russian jet last week.
Offending everyone in the world seems to be a strategic error on the part of ISIS. They're going to unite everyone in the world against them: the United States, Europe, Russia, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Hezbollah, the Kurds, the Shiites in Iraq.
Eliminating the systematic repression of ethnic and religious minorities in Iraq, Syria, Israel, Russia, Africa, France -- and even the the United States -- would go a long way to gutting ISIS.
People aren't drawn to ISIS because they want a caliphate. They want a caliphate because they think there needs to be a safe place for people like them, because they think they're being oppressed and attacked where they live, and they want to create a safe haven for people like them.
If everyone is guaranteed freedom and safety wherever they live, the motivation for Muslim kids living in Europe and the United States to join ISIS will evaporate.
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