Contributors

Monday, November 19, 2007

Heightened UnAlert Volume 1

After careful consideration, I have come to the unmistakable conclusion that most conservatives are afraid of the wrong things. So this week, I am starting a new series, to be continued from time to time similar to Grab Bag and Profiles in Courage, that highlight this silliness.

Strike up a conversation with a conservative friend and you will find him or her principally worried about terrorism, immigration, and poor people thieving from their wallets. Notice that the subtext here is "the other" or the strange, different person from the far away land of....wherever...taking something from them or invading their space.

Liberals, however, seemed concerned mostly about health care, education, and the environment...all things that will help people live better lives and ultimately improve our country.

Even within each category that conservatives value as being top concerns they are way off base. Poor people thieving from your wallet? This is actually known as belief perseverance or confirmation bias. The same could be said for their views on immigration, which are so unrealistic and child-like that it's hard for me to listen to them seriously. Nothing, however, is more silly than a conservative's view on terrorism and national security.

At this point, I think it's obvious to most people that Iraq was never really a serious threat and that we probably should have kept our focus on Afghanistan. I admit that, back in the fall of 2001, we really looked we were going to head in the right direction, policy wise. Then Tora Bora happened, the administration turned almost immediately to Iraq, and I realized, to my horror, that President Bush and Vice President Cheney honestly do not give a rat's ass about the people that attacked us on 9-11. If they did, we would not have the situation we currently have in Pakistan.

To put it bluntly, Pakistan is a powder keg with a quarter of a centimeter long fuse. Large portions of the country have been taken over by radicals. President Musharaf, leader of Pakistan, has more or less suspended democracy in favor of a dictatorship. According to all of the latest National Intelligence Assessments, Al Qaeda has reconstituted itself in the various tribal areas of Pakistan and is at pre-9/11 strength.

Oh, and Pakistan has somewhere in the neighborhood of three dozen nuclear warheads.

Great.

And people in this country are worried about Iraq falling into the wrong hands?

Folks, Pakistan IS in the wrong hands and it's getting worse everyday. Don't believe me? Check out the Oct 29, 2007 edition of Newsweek. Here is the money quote:

Today no other country on earth is arguably more dangerous than Pakistan. It has everything Osama bin Laden could ask for: political instability, a trusted network of radical Islamists, an abundance of angry young anti-Western recruits, secluded training areas, access to state-of-the-art electronic technology, regular air service to the West and security services that don't always do what they're supposed to do. Then there's the country's large and growing nuclear program. "If you were to look around the world for where Al Qaeda is going to find its bomb, it's right in their backyard," says Bruce Riedel, the former senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council.

The whole article is stunning and yet another shining example of how sub moronic the Bush Administration's policy on terrorism is devoid of priorities. One would think that the man who once said, "bin Laden, Dead or Alive" would actually live up to his word and do something about Pakistan, other than what he is currently doing which is offering a bunch of lip service to the media and sending low level diplomats to talk to Musharaf.

Mention Pakistan to a conservative (please do sometime...it's really a hoot) and you will get a surprisingly laissez faire response. Here are some that I have heard recently.

"Bomb Pakistan? Aren't they are allies. To do so would be colossally stupid."

"Musharaf is doing the best he can. Those folks over there can't handle democracy. They need to be ruled with an iron hand."

"Things are just fine over there. We need to stay focused on Iraq, building democracy there so it will spread to Pakistan and other countries in the region at a later date."

Huh?

Talk about hypocrisy. So....what....they are the only ones allowed to be tough and if anyone else, like say...Barack Obama talks about military action in Pakistan then it's time to stomp their feet and throw an eight year old temper tantrum, yelling, "No! No! You can't do that! No!"

Or they will revert to the old "It's all Bill Clinton's fault" mantra. Perhaps they haven't read this article, recently sent to me be a loyal reader, which details how it was Musharraf, after seizing power in 1999, who refused to complete a joint US-Pakistani operation (started with ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif) that would've possibly taken out bin Laden. It was President Clinton and his staff that had been working on this operation since the failed 1998 bombing.

We need to get serious about Pakistan now. I would suggest an operation in Pakistan that cleans out the tribal regions once and for all. Right now, the Bush Administration, in a shit eatingly stupid maneuver, is sending around 15o million dollars to the region to "win hearts and minds."

I'll give all of you one guess as to where that money is really going.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

' I'll give all of you one guess as to where that money is really going '

Absolutely. Good question. One that no one in power seems to want to ask.

Repeat the above truth + ' where the money / weapons is really going ' to in Iraq.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0DE3D71439F932A25752C1A9619C8B63

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/11/langewiesche200711


It's a joke. Counter-terrorism. In the sphere of operations, it's pure bottom line corruption, kick-backs, new terror-networks-spinning, money-laundering via tryants, death squads dictators and a few unideologically-driven americans.

Don't point at stats that say 'Oh, only 75 iraqis are dying a day on the streets of X province as opposed to 150' -- BEFORE THE INVASION -- when it didn't matter to US foreign policy HOW MANY natives died on the streets of iraq or any other country where our soldiers weren't stationed, the numbers were next to nil, the economy and energy production was far better shape (even with worldwide sanctions!!) so, it maybe the only glimmer of hope in a hopeless occupation, but still completely irrelevant that the situation is micro-improving (though continually overall shit) in a few neighbourhoods. life in the country is hell hell on a multiple number of basic utiltiy and economic levels -- not to mention security -- as witnessed by the millions of post-2003 refugees who can't return until there's stability or an actual country to return to.

Pakistan's current situation is so sad, unstable and well highlighted. We pay the man billions but can't don't want to 'rein him in' or pressure him beyond meaningless press-op words to develop democratic ways in a country craving it and most capable of it, because he (Musharraf) is better / less scary than bin laden whom both his country and ours helped nurture.

Anonymous said...

okay that was just a vent. the intelligent and POSITIVE thing to do, would be to force a new US leader to first, CORRECTLY diagnose the us foreign policy situation (as mark seems to be thoughtfully doing in chapters on the blog) prioritise the problems and come up with INTELLIGENT, meaningful, well-informed pragmatic humane and thoroughly analysed solutions.

Anonymous said...

Well, said joannet. I can already see the smoke coming out of conservative's ears with your second post.

Intelligent and meaningful? Nah, never gonna happen with this current crowd?

blk said...

I have been saying these things about Pakistan since before 9/11. It has been one of the primary sources of Islamic terrorism since the 1980s. It supported (with US backing) the Talibanization of Afghanistan.

Pakistan has been the number one source of nuclear proliferation to countries like North Korea, Libya, etc.

During the Cold War the CIA spent billions of dollars -- through our proxies in Pakistan -- pumping up Islamic fundamentalists in places like Afghanistan and Chechnya. In their fervor to destroy the Soviets the Reagan administration catalyzed a movement that -- according to Republicans these days -- threatens civilization like no other before it.

At the same time, the Reagan administration was publicly backing Saddam in his war against Iran, selling him conventional weapons and letting him get access to WMDs which he used on the Kurds in 1988. When the Democratic Senate voted to shut Saddam's supplies down Reagan stopped them.

Meanwhile, Reagan was secretly selling weapons (including 1,000 TOW missiles) to Iran. He took the proceeds from that sale and gave it to Nicaraguan terrorists (the "contras").

Somehow, after all our back-stabbing machinations we are worse off today. All the Muslims hate us now, Russia is regaining the power it lost and is talking about increasing their nuclear arsenal (we pulled out of the last nuclear deal, so now they're going to pull out), oil is $100 a barrel and we are stuck in two wars in the Middle East.

Why the history lesson? To demonstrate that it never pays to make deals with the devil. Musharraf is a dictator no different from Saddam. The only difference is that his country has nuclear weapons, so we think we have to cower before him.

It is my contention that the Soviet Union's precipitous fall had more to do with the disastrous war in Afghanistan than anything else. Reagan loved to take credit for the Soviet Union's demise, but the people who did the grunt work were the Taliban and Osama.

Now those same people are going after us. When are going to learn our lessons?

Mark Ward said...

Ah, blk, how dare you criticize the policies of America. Don't you know that everything we do is for the benefit of mankind and the rest of the world should give thanks for us?

http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/americans-world-thanksgiving-1924033-europe-europeans

Kevin said...

So what would you like to see, Mark? Shall we pull out of Iraq immediately and begin an invasion of Pakistan? What happens in Iraq after we leave? Let Iran slip into the power vacuum there? How do we "clean out the tribal region once and for all"? Bombing a la Kosovo? Or boots on the ground? Where do we stage from? Afghanistan? How do we prevent the Pakistanis from using nukes in their defense? What do you suggest our response should be if they detonate tactical nukes amongst our forces, or our bases in Afghanistan? How do we respond to China, who will most certainly not care for projection of US power so close to their borders? I'm honestly curious to see how to deal with all these issues, because it looks like a real hornets nest to me.

Anonymous said...

Kevin, you and i are ordinary citizens (you may have extraordinary powers but the point is, we're not in power) Don't you think that this Administration (& its critics, i remember sitting in on one of two very informative congressman john/jack murtha news conferences in late 2005 where he put forward answers to some of your questions above) have been THINKING about the issues, asking the same questions you are and answering them with alternative options A-Z for the last, at least, 4 years? They (the Admin) just don't LIKE the majority of options (which make them look like they didn't know what they were doing in the FIRST place, and are now retreating..) but it doesn't mean those alternatives don't exist.

I AGREE. When the alternatives are politicised (i.e. coming exclusively out of the PR machines of the Democratic Congressional Committee or Hilary Clinton's mouth) instead of emerging from a united concensus (which definitely exists, at least one of deep CONCERN amongst thinking pols on both sides) of the body politic: republican and democratic, when politicised -- those options sound VILE to the 'other side.' It's like saying 'LOSER' Anybody, on the Democratic side, with a brain, should pursue uniting colleagues on some major points of agreement, but that isn't going to happen -- leading up to an election. It's going to get more polarised, money & time-wasting and ridiculous -- none of which is in the normal person's interest. (who, unlike corporations or govt agencies and their management, have nothing to gain from ultra-corruption in iraq.)


' Shall we pull out of Iraq immediately and begin an invasion of Pakistan? '

I am against invasion in principle just to create new political realities or results on the ground. I'm against it when the US does it, and when Israel does it, because neither EVER ever ever go according to perfect sounding plan, almost always boomerang on the invader and create way too many civilian tragedies. Invading Pakistan NOW, post a failed or deeply flawed Iraq experiment, would unite the islamic world en masse, there would be new anti-US attacks and take overs of country power bases across the arab world in coups or resistance actions, some of which are long overdue and may be peaceful, others of which will be violent and not based on democratic majority logic. None of which would be pro-US, post a new invasion with civilian fallout. But YES, we should pull out of Iraq and regroup in EXISTING bases saturated ALL OVER the Arab World and Gulf, i.e. already on the doorsteps of Iraq, AFTER we genuinely HELP them restore infrastructure existence basics (electricity, water, sewerage etc) restore economic output levels and hold NEW elections to get rid of current ultra-corrupt elements in the Iraqi govt. Stop arming sunni tribesman, who sell some of those arms to shia brothers, so the shia turn to neighbouring iran for their stockpiles. We could withdraw within TWO years, easily, but make a framework starting right now.

It's a JOKE to think that Iran hasn't always held some sway over a 60% majority Shia neighbouring Iraq, sharing the same borders. That's like saying the US should have NO influence over Canada or Mexico. So, 'Let Iran slip into the power vacuum there' NEWSFLASH. It's already there (in many positive ways too, reading latest news reports on how iraq says Iran is helping them to curb insurgency attacks inside the country -- as well as YES, arming both shia and sunni anti-american groups, JUST AS WE ARE...) Are you seriously suggesting Kevin, that it is the ROLE of US Foreign Policy to MICROMANAGE foreign policies of other nations around the world and the purpose of US taxpayer funds to enable the Pentagon to do that? When we can't even sort out our own FP strategy or mixed-message goals..?

Okay, there's a storm here, gotto go, but you ask some great questions. All of which have answers. THAT's THE THING. These are solveable problems and debatable issues. So, that's what i believe our leaders should be doing, not talking crap or doing nothing except selling themselves.

Mark Ward said...

I'm not sure if I can come up with a better answer than that. Wow, nice going jt.

Let me think for this afternoon...remove some of the snot from head (god! I hate colds) and see what I can come up with, Kevin

Anonymous said...

"I would suggest an operation in Pakistan that cleans out the tribal regions once and for all. Right now, the Bush Administration, in a shit eatingly stupid maneuver, is sending around 15o million dollars to the region to "win hearts and minds." "

A month ago you kept saying this war couldn't be won militarily. Now you're criticizing GWB for NOT going into Pakistan?