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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Pennsylvania Wrap Up

The Hildawg won by 10 points last night. Here are the numbers:

Senator Clinton: 1,258,245 votes, 80 delegates
Senator Obama: 1,042,297, 66 delegates

Looking at the percentages, she wins 55-45, 3 more points than I had predicted. The percentages look bad but the actual numbers look pretty even...depends on how you want to look at it. The "liberal" media is spinning that Obama can't connect with the white, beer drinking, bowling, gun loving crowd so McCain will some of those votes. I think it is complete crap and here's why.

First of all, Hillary had the entire Pennsylvania machine behind her...Governor Rendell, both mayors and tons of elected officials. Obama had Senator Casey and Rep Murphy. If Obama gets the nomination, they will be working to get the vote out for him.

Second, take a look at this map from CNN of all the counties in Pennsylvania. At first glance, you might say that Hillary was more in touch with the rural vote with all the light blue. Scroll your mouse over...say...Buck's County, which is basically the crowd with whom Obama supposedly can't connect. He gets 42,000 votes to her 71,000...a large victory for her to be sure but he is still getting a good chunk of people in these areas. Take a look at some of the smaller counties. She gets around 60 percent of the vote but he still gets people in these very rural counties. It doesn't seem like they ALL were for Hillary as the media makes it appear.

If I were the Obama campaign, I would interview some of these folks and find out why they voted for him. He needs to know this so he can use it in Indiana. If he can win Indiana, it's over. Remember, he won in Iowa and Wisconsin, states that have similar demographics.

Here's my question....two million people voted...what happened to the other two million?

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

It also doesn't seem like they all went for Obama like the clip you posted below from bill mahers show.

Mark Ward said...

No, they didn't. But, on average, around a third of them did which I find to be impressive. Consider the fact that a few months ago no one really knew anything about him and the loads of negativity out there, I think it's amazing,

Anonymous said...

Mark, you are wrong. Wow, that felt really good. Even though I agree with you most of the time I still enjoyed saying it :)

You are wrong (hee hee) because Hillary actually won by 9.37 percent, not 10 percent. She did not win by double digits. I thought this would be important for those posters who are very concerned about actual results.

Anonymous said...

If you don't see the difference between voting results of a 1 day primary and the results of a massive government program then you are a complete dolt.