Juris is back from his travels and left an interesting comment below that I wanted to bring out front in its own post.
I suspect there are two reasons the Dems are painting such a bleak picture: 1) fire up the base by scaring them (classic Repub tactic, no?), and/or 2) the worse the run up looks - anything short of annihilation and they can claim a victory of sorts.
Regarding his first point, I agree. Let's take a look at some numbers.
Here are the results from the 2008 election (popular vote)
Barack Obama-69,456,897
John McCain-59,934,814
Generally, there are more people that vote in presidential election years. So, in 2008 we have around 130 million. Estimates for this year will be around 80 million. Now, of the 60 million that voted for McCain, I'm betting that around 40 million are hard core GOP base folks who vote in every election. Of Obama's 70 million, the hard core Dem base is less than that...maybe 35 million. In 2008, the hardcore GOP base is manageable because of all the independents and the "every 4 year voters" that the Dems swayed. But in an off year? It's devastating. That's why the Dems are in trouble.
The conservative base is the largest minority voting bloc in this country (copyright: Jerry Falwell). Add in the Tea Party folks and the scales are tipped (assuming 80 million turnout) in favor of the GOP. If independents flip or don't show up like they did in 2008 and the Dems can't spark their base, the losses will be significant. So, this may be why they are using this tactic and will continue to do so for the next 49 days.
Regarding your second point, if they lose either House, it's a loss. And, after John Boehner was spanked into shape yesterday, we know what a GOP run House is going to look like: Fuck you, Mr. President. The GOP are going to disagree with him on everything. The Dems might be able to claim a victory but they will be completely wrong. The loss of the House will be a disaster for the party and nothing will get done.
The other thing to consider in all of this, which ties in to my point above regarding turnout, is the difference between likely voters and registered voters. With the likely, the GOP has the edge. But the registered voters are split down the middle with each party in a dead heat.
So who is going to turn out?
6 comments:
>and nothing will get done.
Speaking for myself, I think that would be a vast improvement on matters.
After O'Donell's big win last night, I think both Dems and Repubes should be deathly afraid. The Tea Party has spoken.
The people are electing people to stop Obama so the Fuck You is exactly right and is not a negative.
Independents are going to show up - and they aren't going to be voting democrat.
and most people in our country have no idea who John Boehner is markadelphia.
That's true rld. He also has a lower approval rating than Nancy Pelosi.
If the choice is between another government stimulus bill and nothing - I'll choose nothing.
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