We are now eight days away from the Iowa caucuses and I predict that Ron Paul is going to win that election with Mitt Romney coming in second. Paul's ground troops are well positioned in many key counties and his supporters are fervent. I also think that we'll see a couple of the lower tier candidates drop out although Michele might stick around and make things interesting from an emotionally hysterical drama angle.
What are your thoughts? Who wins Iowa?
8 comments:
I like Paul - obviously. And he may win Iowa, but I don't think he can win the Republican nomination - he is too disturbing to the establishment. He isn't the best libertarian-leaning candidate either. That should've been Gary Johnson who's campaign stalled before it even got over the start line.
Right now my gut is that the Repubs won't decide until either very late in the primaries or at the convention (at which point it could be anyone). Of course we thought much the same thing on the Dem side this early in the last cycle.
One thing I'm not buying in this whole process is the lead changes that have happened. First it was Bachmann, then Romney, then Perry, then Cain, then Gingrich, now Paul. I have a hunch the media is trying to get this to look like a Rocky Balboa/Apollo Creed fight when it isn't - it's just politics and it's usually boring and they're trying to make it into something it isn't.
If I lived there, I'd vote for Ron Paul. Romney plays it too safe IMO. Gingrich is borderline savant with regards to how Washington works and is real smart about politics but he has all kinds of baggage and contradictory statements.
I'm not buying in this whole process is the lead changes that have happened.
Well, they're going off of polls and simply reacting. I think it speaks volumes that the lead changes so much. The GOP base doesn't really like any of the current candidates but here's the funny thing: they don't like any candidate! They seem to be in a perpetual state of bitch and gripe about how they're aren't any "real" conservatives. It's my opinion that the actual problem lies in the severely flawed ideology and not the people trying to get the nomination.
It's my opinion that the actual problem lies in the severely flawed ideology and not the people trying to get the nomination.
Yes of course, it is all about evil conservatives. This kind of indecision (particularly early in the cycle) never has happened in the other party. Really M why do you insist on being so obtuse?
Not evil, necessarily, but incompetent, willfully ignorant and pathological liars. Three not very good things to be in the world today.
And I'm not a member of The Cult of Both Sides as you seem to be (sadly) still, juris. The Democrats aren't perfect but, simply put, they are better than the GOP. Their track record of success speaks for itself.
Not evil, necessarily, but incompetent, willfully ignorant and pathological liars. Three not very good things to be in the world today.
It wouldn't be so far fetched for someone to characterize you the same way. Nor is it any way to attempt to discuss anything with such people - you have pretty thoroughly demonized them. Mind you, there are large swathes of the Republican Party I have no use for - but I feel pretty much the same way about large chunks of the Democratic Party as well.
Yes M I know you are a partisan hack and water-carrier for the Dems - but it is nice to see you admit it for a change. Of course it was you that asked for 'our' thoughts.
It wouldn't be so far fetched for someone to characterize you the same way.
Always with the redirect back on me...(sigh)
but I feel pretty much the same way about large chunks of the Democratic Party as well.
Feel, yes. You'll get no argument from me as this is that Beatles v Stones thing again.
you have pretty thoroughly demonized them.
No, I think they've done a fine job of that on their own through their words and actions. Don't shoot the messenger, juris.
And I don't think I'm a partisan hack either as I am critical of the Democrats. It's just done in a constructive way rather than stomping off like my friend Andy and forming the "Democratic Ecology Party." I prefer to focus on fixing the problems the Democrats have rather than quit or play the Cult of Both Sides.
Always with the redirect back on me...(sigh)
I only do that to aid you in your exercises in reflection.
I don't think I'm a partisan hack
Well of course you don't. No one who is one does. Too bad you won't admit it - it would be a nice case of reflecting on yourself and actually seeing what you are.
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