Lots to talk about today but I thought I would start out with the passing of Kim Jong Il. I find it remarkable that this year has seen three truly despicable men (bin Laden, Gaddafi, Kim) depart this plane of existence. The world is most definitely better off without them.
The question now is will North Korea change? My initial thoughts are skeptical. Kim's son, Kim Jong Un, seems more of a puppet of the military so in the short run we won't see much in the way of new policy. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to flex their military muscle a bit just for show. It's going to be interesting to see what China does in the next few weeks.
Regardless, North Korea can't last much longer the way they are going. With Cuba now selling private property in the hopes of not being left out of the global market, it's only a matter of time before we see serious change in the Korean peninsula. Sadly, it will more than likely be messy.
What are your thoughts?
3 comments:
Strange coincidence that he and Vaclav Havel should die on the same day.
Excellent question Mark. Interesting times indeed.
I see a complete, radical, overwhelmingly democratic move coming to NK. Think Arab Spring in Asia. It will start small, but soon. Like Egypt, it will involve bloodshed
I've got to believe that the revolt threshold is pretty tight in such a repressed society. If they hit critical mass, cross-border talks may happen pretty fast. Or, the new God-Ruler may launch nukes at random. WTFDIK?
Re-Unification offered by US, West Germany and East Germany meets South Korea / North Korea and a capitalism bomb hits (N)(S) KOREA.
The 99% of North Koreans (those not high in the communist ranks ATM) glimpse Utopia.
That's my bet.
Like Egypt, it will involve bloodshed
I think it may involve a significantly higher amount of bloodshed than Egypt. I do like your pie-in-the-sky prognostication, though, whether it was meant as tongue in cheek or not. Some very interesting thoughts! I'd be all for a capitalist bomb hitting North Korea. The looks on the faces of the people of NK when they see what the free market can bring...
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