Slipping Away

Even before the stolen election earlier this year, I have wondered how long Iran, in its current state, would last. Ahmadinejad has literally driven his country into the economic ground. The people hate him and are tired of their totalitarian theocracy. Apparently, too, are many in the Arab World.

Take a look at the cover story from the CSM two weeks ago.

Beset in recent months by the bloody spectacle of regime enforcers stamping out pro-democracy protests, and by dozens of deaths, torture, and allegations of rape in secret prisons, Iran is losing influence among some of its friends in the region and stiffening opposition among foes.

Exactly right. Much of the attention in the US is on Iran's nuclear program. The rest of the world, however, and particularly the Arab world is wondering what happened to its once staunch defender. I mean, Iran is literally destroying its own people. How cool is that?

"I think we have seen the peak of the Islamic Republic's power in its current configuration," says Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland. Iran's influence has "slipped very badly," says Mr. Ansari. "Arab states have been lapping it up.... It has had tremendously damaging consequences for [Iran]. In the Persian Gulf, people were genuinely shocked – they never thought that the Iranian regime would treat its own people this way. They thought their governments [would] do that, but this is a revolutionary government. They suddenly realized it is no different."

Interesting. The peak? That sure doesn't jibe with conservatives are saying in this country. If you talk to them, Iran is about to attack New York. In fact, though...

"Iran's supporters in the region were wagering before and during the elections that the Islamic state would teach the world a lesson in democracy and present a model of Islamist rule," wrote the Saudi-owned Al-Hayat newspaper. "They have lost their wager, and certainly Islamists in Arab countries who aspire to participate in the political game and come to power have lost the most."

Another Al-Hayat story was equally blunt: "The truth of the matter is that revolutionary movements that establish a new legitimacy from illegitimacy carry early on fertile seeds for its demise."

Yep, pretty much.

Tehran's "influence must be waning, because Iran is more and more viewed as quite a fundamentalist, authoritarian Islamic regime, and not [one] that wants to protect the rights of Muslims," says Massoumeh Torfeh, an Iran expert at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies. "After all, the people who are suffering in the prisons in Iran are also Muslims. The people who were killed in the demonstrations were also Muslim ... so I think their reputation is somewhat tarnished."

What? You mean torture doesn't work and makes one look bad in the eyes of the world? But here's my favorite bit from the whole piece.

"After 30 years, [the Islamic system] is losing, it's getting tired, it's getting old. It no longer has any new ideas, any new strategy to offer. It's just fundamentalist heated speech, and nothing more than that," says Mr. Torfeh. "Khomeini was very creative in his own way, in the way he presented Islam to the world. But this is now just the right- wing end of a movement, the fundamentalist end. I think these are the final stages; it's going more and more to the right, as if it was exiting that way."

If only that were true in our own country....(sigh)

The fact is, folks, that Iran is not nearly as much of a threat as certain people in this country make them out to be. In fact, those same people need Iran to be a big threat otherwise the weakness of their ideology will be exposed. We have much bigger problems to deal with at the present time. Pakistan has nuclear weapons and is a base for Al Qaeda. Afghanistan is a giant mess. Saudi Arabia is still cranking out hirabis like a cookie factory in their hate filled madrasahs. The last thing we need to be doing is provoking them into a war that will unite their country.

The best thing we could do right now is bring tougher sanctions, gather support and watch events play out in a country that is clearly falling apart.