I think the results last night in Iowa speak volumes. The GOP is split into three distinct groups. First, you have the business wing/old guard who support Mitt Romney, the winner by a mere 8 votes. Then you have Rick Santorum who represents the conservative evangelical and came in second. Finally, the libertarian wing, represented by Ron Paul who came in third but managed to garner 28, 219 votes (around 3,000 less than Romney and Santorum). I honestly thought that Paul would pull it out considering the lack of campaigning Romney has done in Iowa. If he had won, though, the Iowa Caucuses would've become less relevant and more of a joke. I certainly wouldn't want that as most of my in laws live there and I have grown quite fond of the Hawkeye state.
This split tells me that the right is going to have some serious problems on its hand in the future. Taken alone, each of these wings can't mount a national election capable of beating most Democrats. And they don't seem to function well together with the libertarian wing despising the old guard as much as they do the Democrats. This libertarian wing is also filled with young people who don't much like social conservatism either and they're honest about it as opposed to the old guard who snickers behind their backs at how useful the conservative Christians are as puppets. Yet, they all need each other in order to be a party. It's this sort of dysfunction that usually erodes families to the point of very serious problems.
I still say the Mittster is going to be the nominee but it won't be easy. Two thirds of the base simply don't like him. But they are at least united in their hatred of Blackie McHitler who is on a mission to steal their luggage so at least that's something.
4 comments:
Split? You have said in the past that republicans all vote in lockstep. Which is it?
Most Republicans in Congress vote in lockstep, a habit they got into when they were in the minority for decades. Some people like to ascribe this to the authoritarian bent of the Republican Party, but the Tea Party has been causing guys like Boehner a lot of headaches in recent years. The Republican electorate, the people who vote in caucuses and primaries, are of many different types and don't all have the same agenda.
It has long been composed of several single-interest groups: anti-abortion social conservatives, gun rights advocates, anti-union business people and anti-minority groups. Most of these people care only about their single interest and vote Republican because that party has adopted all these issues.
That doesn't mean that all the people who vote for Republicans agree with the party's entire platform. For example, many Catholics vote Republican on the single issue of abortion, even though they don't favor the death penalty, or the war in Iraq, or the war on the poor and minorities, or the plague of gun violence brought about by laissez-faire gun laws.
If abortion suddenly became a non-issue, the Republicans would lose a lot of Catholic votes.
Ron Paul got a lot of votes in Iowa from young people who have never identified themselves as Republicans. They just like his isolationist foreign policies (because young people are the ones who usually go to war) and his pro-drug stand. So it's not clear the Paul result says anything about Republicans in general, it could just be a fluke of Paul temporarily calling himself a Republican (he has not always been one).
The Iowa caucuses are not a very good predictor of the final result. In 2008 the totals were: Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%).
That means Romney's support is essentially unchanged in Iowa since 2008. That could be the sign of a similar trend nationwide this year.
The irony of Bachmann is that she lost because she was the most conservative person running in the inherently misogynist wing of the Republican Party. Many conservatives simply don't think women can be president, and less conservative people who wanted to vote for her didn't because they know that the misogynists wouldn't vote for her, so she was a lost cause. Plus, she's an idiot and a flake and everyone knows it, and many Republicans attribute this to her gender. Sarah Palin's antics cast further doubt on the possibility of a serious Republican woman presidential candidate.
I suspect Santorum's support in Iowa was largely accidental: he was the last non-Romney left and had received so little scrutiny and exposure that many people may have voted for him simply because he hadn't been made a complete fool of yet.
One assumes the other candidates will get right on that.
Yet, they all need each other in order to be a party.
LOL - I can't tell if you are talking about Dems or Repubs.
Plague of gun violence? Hmmm. And here I thought all forms of gun violence have dropped dramatically, even as concealed carry laws have been expanded. Just shows what I know. I could google it and find out for sure, but it is easier to believe you.
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