Contributors

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Meanwhile, Iran and The United States...

With the fifth assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist this week, relations between Iran and the United States are fairly close to boiling. Some analysts think they are there already. Add in Iran's recent threats to close the Straight of Hormuz and we have a very delicate situation developing in an always destabilized region of the world.

Most of us aren't paying attention to this, of course, and are focused on the election and, more specifically, the economy. Yet I think it's very likely that something is going to happen with Iran this year and it's going to be serious. It will be very interesting to see how this effects the election. Remember that the 2008 election was supposed to be about Iraq but turned out to be about the economy. Could the 2012 election, supposedly about the economy, end up being about Iran?

Clearly, Mossed is behind the targeted assassinations in Iran. Iran is accusing the CIA of being behind it in public but in private they know full well that it's Israel. Perhaps they don't want to admit it. The Israeli government is trying to provoke Iran into taking some sort of action so we'll then have no choice but to get involved and attack them.

This presents a tough decision for the president. Already, he has ratcheted up the sanctions against Iran and issued very blunt warnings about the Straight of Hormuz. What will all of this do to oil prices in a very shaky world economy? In addition, the president already views Israel as not being a true partner to peace in the Middle East and, to a certain extent, he does have a point. Yet Israel is acting in its own self interest. Most of the statements coming out of Iran are simply chest thumping bluster. Their central goal, however, has always been to rid the world of Israel. Make statements of this nature and expect the current response they are getting-dead nuclear scientists.The only certain thing here for the president is that whatever actions he takes, regardless of their success, conservatives and the other assorted right wingers out there will label him a failure.

Given all of this, what would you do?

23 comments:

juris imprudent said...

We don't buy oil from Iran, so why is it our concern?

If Iran is a threat to its neighbors, then the neighbors should deal with it. I trust the Israelis are fully capable.

Nikto said...

Many other nations in the Middle East have mistrusted the Iranians ("Persians") for centuries. There's an element of racism involved -- Iranians aren't Arabs -- and religious bigotry -- Iran is majority Shiite, and most Middle Eastern countries are majority Sunni.

Israel is perceived variously in the region as America's pawn, proxy, and puppet-master. We've given Israel billions and billions of dollars, and we've enabled and tolerated its occupation and land grabs on the West Bank for decades. After all this time, we're essentially Israel's babysitter and if the kid acts up we're gonna get blamed for it no matter what.

For all the Republicans' bluster about Iran, they are responsible for Iran's ascendance by backing the Iraq War in 2003. For decades the Middle East relied on Iraq and Saddam Hussein to keep Iran in check (that's why the US and most everyone else in the Middle East backed Iraq in the Iran-Iraq in the 80s). H.W. Bush understood that when he left Saddam in place after the Gulf War, but W. screwed the pooch when he took Saddam down at the behest of Iranian agents like Ahmed Chalabi.

Most current Republican candidates have purged any mention of W. from the primary campaign, and most are keeping mum about the Iraq War and its implications, even as they begin the war of words against Iran -- though I'm sure Ron Paul would admit all this if asked directly.

W. basically put Iran on track to develop nuclear weapons by lumping Iraq, Iran and North Korea into the "Axis of Evil." W. invaded Iraq because it was the weakest of the three, and everyone knew that, and everyone knew that they had no WMDs. When North Korea successfully developed a bomb while the US was already engulfed in two other wars, they gained complete immunity from invasion by American forces because they knew W. would never attack a country with nuclear weapons. North Korea also had a hostage in South Korea, much like Iran has our oil supply as its hostage.

Given Iraq's fate and North Korea's current position, what other lesson could Iran possibly have learned? Without a nuclear weapon they'll never be safe, especially if a Republican who keeps telling us he'll bomb Iran is elected president.

Ron Paul understands this. He knows the rest of the gaggle would lead us into another disaster with Iran. For that reason, I wouldn't be too surprised if after losing the nomination Paul ran as a libertarian to sabotage the Republican candidate and help Obama win. Paul knows that the damage a war with Iran would cause would far outstrip any domestic problems Obama might cause, because Obama is the most conservative (in the actual sense of the word) candidate of all the contenders.

I also wouldn't be too alarmed by Ahmadinejad's wackiness. Iran is not the first country to have a leader who plays the "I'm crazy enough to use nukes on my enemies" card. Dick Nixon and Ronald Reagan also did. Ahmadinejad is also not the ultimate authority in Iran.

juris imprudent said...

I wouldn't be too surprised if after losing the nomination Paul ran as a libertarian to sabotage the Republican candidate and help Obama win.

Wow the stupid is strong in you Nikto, very very strong.

First, the Libertarian Party candidate is never a factor in the race. He certainly wouldn't run as an independent. I believe he is following Goldwater and wants to transform the Republican Party from within, in this case by diminishing the influence of the establishment neo-cons and the social-cons.

Non-interventionism was once a Republican staple and there is nothing wrong with the party returning to that and jettisoning the neo-con nation-building insanity and the chest-thumping "national greatness" as defined by a coterie of chicken-hawks.

Zeke said...

Congrats Nikto. Mark finally pulls Obama's cock out of his mouth and thinks a macro-thought, and you immediately turn it into

Republicans Bad!

I blame Bush! (tm) for last week's assassinations. And for 'Kinetic Action in Libya. And for US interference in Iran's sovereign business in 1953.

You can write intelligently Nikto, but you've either got to start considering a new editorial direction, or go full retard and insist Bush is Hitler.

I vote full retard. At least you will be interesting.

Mark:

Excellent questions.

I don't discount the direct involvement of the CIA at all. There is an organizational history 'in-country' dating back to the 1950s. Our involvement with the Stuxnet virus is so well documented that Popular Mechanics even assumes it to be true.

IMO, Nigeria has just nullified any plans the US State department may have been planning. A general strike there, in conjunction with the cut-off of Iranian oil, and Obama realizes that $5 gas is not a good re-election campaign. Now he is backing off his rhetoric and looking for a new plan.

The sabre rattling and brinksmanship displayed so far lead me to believe that some kind of shooting war is inevitable. I will give the current admin full credit for getting out of this one without a US bullet/bomb/Marine being expended.

Start war-gaming the idea of China putting 'advisors' in Nigeria to protect their investment, and the permutations quickly get ugly.

Mark Ward said...

(ahem) ignoring the personal insults and actually moving on to the intelligent comments...yes, the war gaming does indeed make it interesting.

I'm afraid I don't share your optimism about getting out of this without there being shooting. The history between Iran and the US is pretty shitty. We (along with BP and the Brits) staged a coup in the country and installed a total fucknut who murdered his own people. Then, another set of fucknuts took over who were psychotic on top of being cruel. Every president since that time has had to manage a walking nuke (pun intended). Making it all worse was W who ignored the reform trend that was percolating in the country and invaded Iraq which helped to give rise to a whole new round of loony. And now it looks like President Obama is going to have to deal with it...really deal with it this time. It's 60 years of FUBAR that could very well unravel this year.

The good news is that the president has one of the best foreign policy/national security teams in place and has proven himself to be a capable leader in this regard. It's going to be an interesting year.

Z said...

Really Mark? I hate to quote the right wing blogs, but some would give Obama and his foreign policy in the Middle-East,these grades:

MIDDLE EAST/MUSLIM WORLD
Arab Spring/Islamist Winter: C

Afghanistan: C

Israeli-Palestinian "Rest in Peace" Process: F

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amb-marc-ginsberg/2011-obama-foreign-policy_b_1171481.html

My optimism? Better re-read me.

And for another POV:
http://www.tehrantimes.com/

which is not loading well this weekend. [cue black helicopters and don tinfoil fez]

Z said...

Juris:

Your statement that the US doesn't buy oil from Iran -so why worry- is contrary to your position previously regarding the world market for oil.

I believe the topic was a Mark post regarding Canadian petroleum self-sufficiency.

The world market sets the price we all pay. Iran sells oil into the world market. Therefore, Iranian oil affects the world market oil price.

juris imprudent said...

The world market sets the price we all pay.

True. It is also true that shutting off their oil exports hurts them worse than anyone else.

My point is that we aren't fucking Team America. If the regional players want to do something, they can. If the world wants to do something, the world can. It isn't just up to us.

Mark Ward said...

Z, I don't much stock in HuffPo when it comes to their analysis of US foreign policy. They are a great example of the titanic naivete of the left when it comes to the international stage. And now much of the Israeli-Palestinian thing is Obama's fault? Zero, really. There's a great deal of instransigence on both sides.

My point is that we aren't fucking Team America.

Now THAT is funny! I love that film...America, Fuck Yeah! I see your point and juris, and once again, reiterate that we need to hear your voice. I don't agree with the statement "It just isn't up to us" because the rest of the countries of the world simply don't have the combination of muscle (both economic and military) combined with the ideology to effect change.

Yet here is a great discussion that we could continue to have for many, many years that won't be frustrating like some of the others because without someone saying the things you do, we'd be less reflective and truly less wise.

juris imprudent said...

Well M thanks for the appreciation; I don't suppose you could actually strive for understanding next. If that isn't asking too much.

And you don't muscle change economically or militarily. Yes, yes, it happened to work, sort of, post WWII. That was a fucking fluke. Look how spectacularly it has failed every other time. Neither our system nor our ideals are necessarily exportable - much easier to just import the people that are in tune with them.

Z said...

Perhaps you believe the truth to be somewhere in the middle of all the reports. e.g.:

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/01/2012171259412479.html

Perhaps you even believe a sovereign nation would decide to use an Iranian-American used car salesman to contact a Mexican drug cartel and ask them to assassinate a Saudi ambassador.

I can only imagine the laughter that one got in the focus groups and polls. Which explains why it hasn't been mentioned since.

And you mentioned that 'clearly the Mossad' is behind the assassinations in Iran. It is not clear to me. Please elaborate.

But certainly you are correct that most Americans are more worried about the election and the economy. I wonder how the economy will react to $150/bbl oil? I wonder just how many Americans can keep turning their heads when the USA invades another country?

oooo, forget I mentioned it.... an American Idol rerun is coming on TV...

Mark Ward said...

juris, good points but I do think that our ideas have largely been exported. Did you read that CSM article on the upbeat status of the world? I think we can take credit for a good deal of that.

And it's not an issue of understanding. I just think we have different views of the world and how to handle its security. In this case, I want to continue to hear your voice with these sorts of issues because I think I slip into realism too much and need to be reminded that that school of thought is riddled with flaws.

Z, I applaud your thought that Al Jazeera is moderate. It's comments like this that remind me why I do this blog and how much I enjoy the diverse opinions...a most humble thanks:)

I will agree that the president is acting somewhat in a political fashion when it comes to Iran. But he isn't operating in a vacuum. Iran needs to be held accountable on the world stage for its actions, no? It's interesting to note that your link ties in with recent reports of back channel communiques with the Supreme Leader of Iran in order to dampen the growing fire. I wonder if anything will come out of it.

Regarding Mossad, I just can't see it being anyone else. When you look at who else would be motivated to kill those scientists and then hear that deafening silence that only comes with a covert Israeli Op, it just seems clear to me. Of course, I'd be open to other suspects if you have further thoughts.

Z said...

I didn't claim AlJezeera was a moderate source. I posted a link with a different viewpoint of the exact same events. Assuming that the Associated Press is the only credible documentarian of any situation is self-deception. A deception that -IMO- is willingly suffered by a vast majority of Americans.

Luckily, the USA would never 'manage' news reports to enter a shooting war, or covertly seek to install a friendly regime in another sovereign country.

"Remember the Maine!"
Operation Ajax
Operation Northwoods
Guatemala (1954)
Bay of Pigs
Congo Crisis (1960)
Gulf of Tonkin
'Yellowcake'
"Iran hates us for our freedoms!"

Iran claims to have evidence of CIA involvement. The Tehran Times webpage still refuses to load. I withhold my judgement until I see the facts they present. I know they have a US spy drone, captured over Iranian airspace.

What would be the US citizen's response if Iran flew a drone over Sacramento?

Maybe Iran has a right to be pissed?

Z said...

"Iran needs to be held accountable on the world stage for its actions, no?"

What actions?

juris imprudent said...

I do think that our ideas have largely been exported.

To some people in all countries, yes - I would agree with that. To all people everywhere, no. That is why I think it makes more sense to be open about immigration of people that have latched onto our ideals. But it is stupid to assume that because some people in a country want liberal democracy, that all the people do - and that they can make it work.

I know they have a US spy drone

You know they claim that. We don't know that they have it. What was displayed did not look like the real deal - and this Iranian govt has a history of faking shit as part of their bluffs.

Z said...

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57339834/u.s-official-iran-does-have-our-drone/?tag=contentMain;contentBody

We can doubt the veracity of ANY 'official' news release, but then it becomes chemtrail / alien autopsy territory.

Mark Ward said...

What would be the US citizen's response if Iran flew a drone over Sacramento?

Maybe Iran has a right to be pissed?

What actions?


Good point. But which government do you think is more ideologically stable? Hell, stable period. If they had free elections, were promoting democracy/human rights, and loosened government controls on their economy, then their protestations might hold more weight with me. Instead, they murder their own people, torture them, don't allow free speech or elections, and have a psychotic theocracy running their country that wants to eliminate Jews. Sorry, but we tried appeasement once and look at how that turned out.

But it is stupid to assume that because some people in a country want liberal democracy, that all the people do - and that they can make it work.

True, and that's where the hubris of our country usually bites us in the ass. Far too often, MNC's and NGOs (supported by the Global North) have blundered into countries and not considered local customs which are at loggerheads with democracy. This is a central theme at the core of our issues in the Middle East. So, obviously we aren't perfect but I still think we need to try to make inroads with our ideology (especially the LIEO) because that's where the prosperity arises.

juris imprudent said...

We can doubt the veracity...

Indeed, an anonymous source providing verification. I don't doubt that we lost the drone, and that it likely crashed. I seriously doubt the Iranians captured it (they may well have pieces - but not the whole thing put together). Doubt you will note - not certainty (as typically permeates the conspiracy theorist). I doubt Iranian competency because the country is run by nutbag religious zealots - and those kind of folks don't trust science and engineering. It is hard to be a competent engineer when any accomplishment (and every failure) is only due to the will of Allah.

Sorry, but we tried appeasement once and look at how that turned out.

With Iran? When was that exactly?

hubris of our country

You mean the hubris of progressives (like you) and neo-cons. Which is so brilliantly reflected in we need to try [harder] right after admitting that we aren't all that good at it.

Mark Ward said...

With Iran? When was that exactly?

No, with Germany, another collection of folks who wanted to exterminate Jews.

You mean the hubris of progressives (like you) and neo-cons.

To a certain extent, yes. Both realism and liberalism failed as models for international politics. That's why I advocate an approach that is rooted more in Constructivism. It's not about trying harder (and this is true of anything)...it's about managing the complexities.

Z said...

"I doubt Iranian competency because the country is run by nutbag religious zealots - and those kind of folks don't trust science and engineering."

Actually, I think a little research may change your mind. The Persians have been around for thousands of years, with notable advances in science. Today, you may be surprised to know that Iran has one of the highest university enrollment rates in Engineering and Construction in the world. Iran also has the highest female to male enrollment ratio in the world. Nearly 70% of Iran's Science and Engineering students are women.

Doesn't quite fit the Burkha wearing, camel fucking, living in a tent on a sand dune stereotype, does it?

You may disagree with the Theocracy, but hey, I may disagree with women having the right to vote. They seem to be ok with it, and - most importantly - it isn't my country. I don't have to like it.

"If they had free elections, were promoting democracy/human rights, and loosened government controls on their economy, then their protestations might hold more weight with me."

From the polling data (polls by ABC news and other independent agencies) prior to the elections, Ahmadinejad had it wrapped up. Why do think there was fraud involved? Was there fraud involved in the 2000 USA presidential election?

Certainly you didn't just recommend loosening government controls on the economy! You can lose your Bill Maher super-decoder ring for that...

Juris:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2011-12-13/Iran-Obama-drone/51855044/1

The source is now Obama. Which don't make it true, but it does make it official.

Mark Ward said...

Certainly you didn't just recommend loosening government controls on the economy! You can lose your Bill Maher super-decoder ring for that...

Contrary to the assertions of the mouth foamers, I'm not a socialist. Neither is Maher. Neither are most Democrats. Centrally planned economies always fail and will never make it in the current global marketplace. It's all about the complexities of balance which are starting to get to, thankfully.

juris imprudent said...

No, with Germany

Wheeeeeeeee look at those goalposts fly. We didn't appease Germany, the French and English did. But for grins, what do you think we are doing now that is appeasement with respect to Iran?

The Persians have been around for thousands of years, with notable advances in science.

You could say the same about the Greeks and Chinese.

Doesn't quite fit the Burkha wearing, camel fucking, living in a tent on a sand dune stereotype, does it?

No it sounds more like Iran under the Shah!

Nearly 70% of Iran's Science and Engineering students are women.

Because only men are allowed to study theology? This could be very interesting in another generation. But for now, the country is run by a bunch of religious fucknuts and until they have run their course we shouldn't treat them as anything other than what they are.

As for getting the drone (or whatever parts survived) back - there wasn't any dispute that we lost it over their territory. If the control system was so tenuous that it was compromised (allowing an intact landing) - then there are some program managers and engineers that need to be tarred, feathered and run out of the country on a high speed rail.

Z said...

I do say the same things about the Greeks and the Chinese. But if I was Greece, and I owned a bunch of oil, and the USA was beating the war drums in my direction... I'd be looking to get me some nukes.