Contributors

Thursday, October 13, 2011

What's the Hurry?

Pundits everywhere are declaring Romney the winner of the Republican nomination. It's months before a single primary or caucus vote will be cast, so why is everyone is such a big rush to make the decision?

At this point in almost every recent election the front runner in either party other than a sitting president was not the ultimate nominee. If the Republicans decide on Romney this far in advance of the election, there will be a lot of unhappy people. Because as soon as the Republican nominee is decided, he will have to move to the center in order to seem reasonable and attract the independent voter.

And many Republicans already think Romney is way too liberal for them. Evangelicals don't like him because he's a Mormon. Most Tea Partyers don't like him for, well, everything he's ever done -- his religion, Romneycare, his altered stands on any number of social issues, being governor of a liberal state, his history as a corporate takeover artist. Libertarians don't like him for many of the same reasons. Pro-lifers don't believe his conversion away from his stated belief in a woman's right to choose.

Romney is the second or third choice for the vast majority of Republicans. He's just another big-business machine politician with good hair who strapped his dog to the top of his car on a family trip to Canada.

All the issues that the majority of Republicans like to holler about will basically be ignored for the next year as Romney tries to position himself to take the center. Yeah, he'll throw out a few red-meat lines in an attempt to rouse the masses. But they won't be convinced. He'll weasel-word most things to avoid looking like a kook in front of the swing voters.

Red-meat Republicans will sullenly vote for Romney because in their mind anyone is better than Obama. But they won't feel particularly motivated to hit the streets and work hard for him. They won't contribute to his campaign like they contribute to Ron Paul's or Michele Bachmann's. They'll feel that Romney is big business's candidate, and they'll be content to let them finance Romney's campaign and the outside issue groups that will be the loudest voices in the election.

Romney is hum-drum and boring. He doesn't raise any kind of enthusiasm in anyone.

If Republicans decide on Romney in December or January, they'll have buyer's remorse come March. When he dips in the polls they'll panic and worry that everything is lost. But by then the other candidates will have dismantled their campaigns and the whole Republican field will be in disarray.

And why Romney, anyway? Well, most of the people who have been running on the Republican side in this cycle are just not qualified. Palin, Perry, Bachmann, and Cain are idiots. Gingrich is damaged goods and disconnected from reality, with his huge Tiffany's bills and serial polygamy. Paul is just too old (older than McCain), and has too many wacky ideas for religious Republicans (legalize prostitution and drugs). Santorum? Seriously? Gary Johnson? Who's that? Huntsman and Pawlenty are passable but too boring and too liberal. They would have a chance with swing voters, but red-meat Republicans despise them.

Republican activists simply hate anyone who would make a credible candidate because they don't like people who have nuanced beliefs or think that government can do any good. And to be an effective president, you really do have to believe that your job is worth doing and that all your employees aren't worthless scum-sucking douche bags.

Anyway, why do we let voters in two or three states decide everything for us? What gives Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina the right to decide who runs for president? I can see why Florida and Nevada want to jump the gun and move their primaries up so they can get some of the campaign cash spent in their states. But this interminably long election season is not good for the country. If anything, we need to shorten the campaign to a few months, not lengthen it to a year and a half that is has become.

In the final analysis, issues that seem so vital at this stage of the campaign could be completely irrelevant by the summer of 2012, and Romney could easily be the wrong man for the job.

3 comments:

juris imprudent said...

Why do you even care? Are you going to vote for ANY candidate the Repubs put up instead of Obama? I can't imagine you even considering the possibility.

Mark Ward said...

Mitt being the likely nominee means that heads are going to explode. For many conservatives, there is no difference between Obama and Romney Listening to the Mittster rip Perry for having 9 million uninsured kids in his state last night made me wonder if he really is a Republican.

Juris Imprudent said...

Mitt being the likely nominee means that heads are going to explode.

And that makes you happy, right? What is your fucking concern here?