The "October Surprise"

Many Republicans are absolutely certain that the jobs report released yesterday is politically motivated. It showed that the unemployment rate dipped to 7.8%, the first it's been below 8% for the first time since Obama took office.

But if you look at what the numbers are saying, it's completely in line with what's been happening for the last year or two, it's in line with the traditional seasonal uptick in September, and it's completely consistent with the large ups and downs that we've historically had from month to month.

For example, in October, 1992 the unemployment rate dipped to 7.3% from 7.6%. This was George H. W. Bush's "October Surprise" when he was running against Bill Clinton.

And this report is consistent with other evidence, notably in real estate, which had been depressed for a long time but has begun to pick up slowly in many areas around the country in recent months. Anecdotally, one realtor told me a year that housing sales were way up, especially in high-end homes. And I know another person who just started selling real estate and is already doing well.

Housing is a prime mover in the economy because it begins a long chain of other purchases that inevitably occur when people move into new homes. That's one reason why things tanked so badly when housing collapsed five years ago.

In addition, a lot of older workers are leaving the job market: the baby boom is starting to retire -- someone born in 1945 is now 67. That's going to drive unemployment numbers down more and more each year, though many baby-boomers won't be able to retire because they lost their nest eggs when the financial markets torpedoed the economy with their hare-brained schemes.

Finally, much of the increase in the recent report is in part-time jobs. Companies have long been moving away from hiring full-time employees and instead part-time employees and contractors to avoid having to pay benefits such as health insurance.

But instead of making these rational arguments, the kind of arguments Democrats make when a statistical blip doesn't square with what they like to see, we saw Jack Welch tweet: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers."

Why resort to logic, historical trends and statistics when you can instead claim corruption and fraud?