General Election: Romney vs. Obama | Gallup Tracking | Romney 49, Obama 47 | Romney +2 |
General Election: Romney vs. Obama | IBD/TIPP Tracking | Romney 47, Obama 45 | Romney +2 |
General Election: Romney vs. Obama | Rasmussen Tracking | Romney 48, Obama 48 | Tie |
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama | CNN/Opinion Research | Obama 51, Romney 47 | Obama +4 |
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama | ARG | Obama 47, Romney 48 | Romney +1 |
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama | Siena | Obama 43, Romney 40 | Obama +3 |
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama | Rasmussen Reports | Obama 47, Romney 47 | Tie |
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama | ARG | Romney 50, Obama 46 | Romney +4 |
Minnesota: Romney vs. Obama | PPP (D) | Obama 53, Romney 43 | Obama +10 |
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama | Gravis Marketing | Romney 50, Obama 41 | Romney +9 |
Connecticut: Romney vs. Obama | Rasmussen Reports | Obama 51, Romney 45 | Obama +6 |
North Dakota: Romney vs. Obama | Mason-Dixon | Romney 54, Obama 40 | Romney +14 |
Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama | WBUR/MassINC | Obama 52, Romney 36 | Obama +16 |
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. Warren | WBUR/MassINC | Warren 45, Brown 48 | Brown +3 |
North Dakota Senate - Berg vs. Heitkamp | Mason-Dixon | Berg 47, Heitkamp 47 | Tie |
Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Murphy | Rasmussen Reports | Murphy 51, McMahon 46 | Murphy +5 |
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. Casey | Siena | Casey 44, Smith 35 | Casey +9 |
Minnesota Senate - Bills vs. Klobuchar | PPP (D) | Klobuchar 57, Bills 31 | Klobuchar +26 |
North Carolina Governor - McCrory vs. Dalton | Gravis Marketing | McCrory 50, Dalton 33 | McCrory +17 |
North Dakota At-Large - Cramer vs. Gulleson | Mason-Dixon | Cramer 49, Gulleson 37 | Cramer +12 |
President Obama Job Approval | Gallup | Approve 53, Disapprove 42 | Approve +11 |
President Obama Job Approval | Rasmussen Reports | Approve 49, Disapprove 50 | Disapprove +1 |
Obama: Favorable/Unfavorable | ABC News/Wash Post | Favorable 55, Unfavorable 44 | Favorable +11 |
Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable | ABC News/Wash Post | Favorable 47, Unfavorable 51 | Unfavorable +4 |
At first glance, this all looks like bad news for the president. Gallup has him down 2 points with Rasmussen having the race exactly tied. He's also lost some ground in North Carolina and Colorado. Remember that Gallup has now switched from "Registered Voters" to "Likely Voters" so now we can see that enthusiasm gap very, very clearly, favoring the Republicans.
But these are nationwide polls and if we look at a very key swing state like Ohio things look just about the same for the president since before the debate. The new Ohio poll from CNN (taken 10/5-10/8) shows the president up 51-47 with the ARG poll showing Romney up 48-47. The CNN poll is
likely voters so that is very good news for the president.
And the president's approval rating has actually increased an overall net of 4 points and now stands at 53 percent. His favorables are still in the plus column while Romney's are still in the minus column. These numbers are now well after the debate which means...what, exactly? I guess I don't know for sure but it does mean not as much doom and gloom for the president because the head to head numbers don't fully reflect the jobs data release as much as the approval/favorable numbers.
One other thing to note here is the Senate picture still looks good for the Democrats. The fact that North Dakota is competitive is truly amazing and an excellent testament to being able to win in a deep red state if you are a good candidate like Heidi Heitkamp.
1 comment:
If you really want to read the entrails of a goat...
The favorable view of Obama has to be balanced against the view of country being on the wrong track.
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